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I'm the Director of the Happier Lives Institute, a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at Oxford's Wellbeing Research Centre, and a co-author of the World Happiness Report. I'm a philosopher by background and did my DPhil at Oxford under the supervision of Peter Singer and Hilary Greaves. My research interests mostly - and unsurprisingly given the above - relate to the nature, measurement, and maximisation of (human) wellbeing, but I've also thought or written about the badness of death, population ethics, moral uncertainty, and non-sentient welfare and probably other things. You can find an (occassionally updated) list of my publications on ORCID.

I've previously worked for an MP and failed to start a start-up. I live with my wife in Bristol, England.

7c:T145f,

I run Sentinel, a team that seeks to anticipate and respond to large-scale risks. You can read our weekly minutes here. I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and generally becoming more formidable. I'm also a fairly good forecaster: I started out on predicting on Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell, but now do most of my forecasting through Samotsvety, of which Scott Alexander writes:

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

7d:T887,

I'm a researcher at Forethought; before that, I ran the non-engineering side of the EA Forum (this platform), ran the EA Newsletter, and worked on some other content-related tasks at CEA. [More about the Forum/CEA Online job.]

Selected posts

Background

I finished my undergraduate studies with a double major in mathematics and comparative literature in 2021. I was a research fellow at Rethink Priorities in the summer of 2021 and was then hired by the Events Team at CEA. I later switched to the Online Team. In the past, I've also done some (math) research and worked at Canada/USA Mathcamp.

7e:T887,

Selected posts

Background

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Haydn has been a Research Associate and Academic Project Manager at the University of Cambridge's Centre for the Study of Existential Risk since Jan 2017.

\n"},"contents":{"wordCount":5281,"htmlHighlight":"

OR The Tragedy of the Einstein Letter and the Gaither Report; Cautionary Lessons from the Manhattan Project and the ‘Missile Gap’; Beware Assuming You’re in an AI Race; The illusory Atomic Gap, the illusory Missile Gap and the AGI Gap

Summary

In both the 1940s and 1950s, well-meaning and good people – the brightest of their generation – were convinced they were in an existential race with an expansionary, totalitarian regime. Because of this belief, they advocated..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"pmALcrKQBDgFMyqqt","core":false,"name":"Global catastrophic risk","slug":"global-catastrophic-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"DA83yteSLbuZdQoKs","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":302,"description":"

A global catastrophic risk (GCR) is an event that poses a risk of major harm on a global scale.^[1]

GCRs risks include, but are not restricted to,..."},{"_id":"u3Xg8MjDe2e6BvKtv","core":false,"name":"AI governance","slug":"ai-governance","tagRel":{"_id":"Gu4nfMnPgHCCQAa26","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":1766,"description":"

AI governance (or the governance of artificial intelligence) is the study of norms, policies, and institutions that can help humanity navigate the transition to a world with advanced artificial intelligence. This inclu..."},{"_id":"ee66CtAMYurQreWBH","core":true,"name":"Existential risk","slug":"existential-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"KBpP8HqdGaL6Yhbcn","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":4386,"description":"

An existential risk is a risk that threatens the destruction of the long-term potential of life.^[1] An existential risk could threaten the..."},{"_id":"ZMdMmDKd4Qnsr7GG7","core":false,"name":"History of existential risk","slug":"history-of-existential-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"TSDJg4JHAHREuoYwT","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":15,"description":"

Terminology

The expression \"AI race\" may be used in a somewhat narrower sense to describe a competition to attain military superiority via..."},{"_id":"doAxFNMmB7qMbJsDR","core":false,"name":"Criticism of the effective altruism community","slug":"criticism-of-the-effective-altruism-community","tagRel":{"_id":"v4a7MFXLmRHb4DfeC","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":283,"description":"

Criticism of the effective altruism community includes criticism of behaviors, norms, and dynamics in the effective altruism community, as opposed to criticism of effective altruist causes,..."},{"_id":"54Ls7K7N53kYws9ja","core":false,"name":"Job listing (open)","slug":"job-listing-open","tagRel":{"_id":"hmTkipoBPHPDMNmjh","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":736,"description":"

Use job listing (open) for posts that discuss a specific job or jobs that one or more organizations are hiring for.

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The EA Forum is mostly about discussing ideas. But ultimately, the reason we discuss those ideas is to help us take actions that improve the world.

Apply the opportunities to take action topic to posts that offer readers a way to get involved..."},{"_id":"EHLmbEmJ2Qd5WfwTb","core":true,"name":"Building effective altruism","slug":"building-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"FesGnpnm5DE6pdFET","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":7874,"description":"

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Examples of building effective altruism include starting..."},{"_id":"hC88x9hNZ7cJYLu8q","core":false,"name":"History","slug":"history","tagRel":{"_id":"D6B9f5uY7MrmgqXrr","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":206,"description":"

The history tag is for posts that are strongly focused on historical events or trends (rather than just mentioning these things briefly), or that discuss or make heavy use of historical research methods.

Technical alignment..."}]},{"_id":"n3WwTz4dbktYwNQ2j","slug":"critiques-of-ea-that-i-want-to-read","title":"Critiques of EA that I want to read","url":null,"baseScore":464,"voteCount":214,"commentCount":86,"postedAt":"2022-06-19T22:22:54.161Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2022-06-20T09:54:51.018Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2026-07-20T13:25:48.018Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"xazDhdpTYbv37vGzB","slug":"abrahamrowe","displayName":"abrahamrowe","username":"abrahamrowe","createdAt":"2018-12-04T20:56:35.366Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":7540,"jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":32,"commentCount":335,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"
CEO of Fairer Fields. I have a blog where I write about nonprofit ops and strategy, and sometimes animal welfare.

I previously co-founded and served as Executive Director at Wild Animal Initiative, was the COO of Rethink Priorities, and was the Director of Operations at GovAI.
"},"contents":{"wordCount":3275,"htmlHighlight":"
Note — I’m writing this in a personal capacity, and am not representing the views of my employer.
I’m interested in the EA red-teaming contest as an idea, and there are lots of interesting critiques I’d want to read. But I haven’t seen any of those written yet. I put together a big list of critiques of EA I’d be really interested in seeing come out of the contest. I personally would be interested in writing some of these, but don’t really have time to right now, so I am hoping th..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"ZCihBFp5P64JCvQY6","core":true,"name":"Community","slug":"community","tagRel":{"_id":"a6BfbK5fe8jPigNFr","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":7492,"description":"
The community topic covers posts about the effective altruism community, as well as applying EA in one's personal life. The tag also applies to posts about the Forum itself, since this is a community space. You should use the community tag if one of the following things is true:
- The post is about EA a..."},{"_id":"EHLmbEmJ2Qd5WfwTb","core":true,"name":"Building effective altruism","slug":"building-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"LTMQRtpSFGyL3Atba","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":7874,"description":"
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  1. Intro
  \n
  In this post I describe a phenomenon that I think is more common than we give it credit for: “EA disillusionment.” By this, I basically mean a process where someone comes into EA, engages heavily, but ends up feeling negatively toward the movement.
  \n
  I know at least a handful of people who have experienced this (and I’m sure there are many more I don’t know)—people who I think are incredibly smart, thoughtful, caring, and hard-working, as well as being independent think..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"ZCihBFp5P64JCvQY6","core":true,"name":"Community","slug":"community","tagRel":{"_id":"hvoDD7LtyJ5mH8QSn","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":7492,"description":"
  The community topic covers posts about the effective altruism community, as well as applying EA in one's personal life. The tag also applies to posts about the Forum itself, since this is a community space. You should use the community tag if one of the following things is true:
  - The post is about EA a..."},{"_id":"aEfhhqymeFsdhDQLk","core":false,"name":"Criticism and Red Teaming Contest","slug":"criticism-and-red-teaming-contest","tagRel":{"_id":"rSNRhkuCdAMBxBupq","voteType":null,"baseScore":9},"postCount":283,"description":"
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    \n
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    \n
    community experiences |..."},{"_id":"EHLmbEmJ2Qd5WfwTb","core":true,"name":"Building effective altruism","slug":"building-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"avQuHYweZYoqBybTx","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":7874,"description":"
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    You can give me anonymous feedback here. I often change my mind and don't necessarily endorse past writings.
    "},"contents":{"wordCount":7715,"htmlHighlight":"
    Cross-posted from Foxy Scout
    \n
    Overview
    \n
    What We Owe The Future (WWOTF) by Will MacAskill has recently been released with much fanfare. While I strongly agree that future people matter morally and we should act based on this, I think the book isn’t clear enough about MacAskill’s views on longtermist priorities, a..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"aFJtBqxDkRX4Dj3m4","core":false,"name":"Community epistemic health","slug":"community-epistemic-health","tagRel":{"_id":"DY9JL575qjRTwxq2G","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":207,"description":"
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    Further reading
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    Related entries
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    - Significance: Average value per unit time of a feature
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      I am a researcher at the Happier Lives Institute. In my work, I assess the cost-effectiveness of interventions in terms of subjective wellbeing.
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      Joel McGuire^[1], Samuel Dupret and Michael Plant
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      Huge thanks to Alex Zhu, Anders Sandberg, Andrés Gómez Emilsson, Andrew Roberts, Anne-Lorraine Selke (who I've subbed in entire sentences from), Crichton Atkinson, Ellie Hain, George Walker, Jesper Östman, Joe Edelman, Liza Simonova, Kathryn Devaney, Milan Griffes, Morgan Sutherland, Nathan Young, Rafael Ruiz, Tasshin Fogelman, Valerie Zhang, and Xiq for reviewing or helping me develop my ideas here. Further thanks to Allison Duettmann, Anders Sandberg, Howie Lempel, Julia Wise, and Tildy..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"QvvdayWWSvmeBCtqZ","core":false,"name":"Community experiences","slug":"community-experiences","tagRel":{"_id":"C6CdFW3z2MuGunyTD","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":396,"description":"
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      Note: I mostly wrote this post after Eliezer Yudkowsky’s “Death with Dignity” essay appeared on LessWrong. Since then, Jotto has written a post that overlaps a bit with this one, which sparked an extended discussion in the comments. You may want to look at..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"EHXNGqENrziYQJsox","core":false,"name":"AI forecasting","slug":"ai-forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"XpfkSJz4aHfXcDfdS","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":546,"description":"
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      Update from October 2022: This contest has wrapped up. You can see the winners of the contest here.
      Introduction
      tl;dr: We're running a writing contest for critically engaging with theory or work in effective altruism (EA).
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      I am a Research Fellow at Forethought. Before that I was an analyst at Longview Philanthropy, a Research Scholar at FHI, and assistant to Toby Ord. Philosophy at Cambridge before that.
      I also do a podcast about EA called Hear This Idea.
      www.finmoorhouse.com/writing
      www.hearthisidea.com
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      Epistemic status: Personal experience and anecdotes have led me to this bundle of weakly-held views, and I’m wondering what other people think. My experience is heavily biased towards the existential risk subculture of EA, so it’s possible that my criticism applies much less (or not at all) outside of that subculture.
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      Section 1 – Introduction
      1.1 Summary
      This is an entry into the ‘Effective Altruism Red Teaming Contest’ – it looks critically at GiveWell’s current cost-effectiveness model. The goal of the essay is to change GiveWell’s mind about the appropriateness of specific features of their cost-effectiveness model. However, I have tried to avoid writing an exhaustive point-by-point deconstruction of GiveWell’s model and instead tried to shine a light on..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"mKNdfyhoHQdCRMDzq","core":false,"name":"GiveWell Change Our Mind Contest","slug":"givewell-change-our-mind-contest","tagRel":{"_id":"MfWcBdBQsS6T87SEa","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":34,"description":"
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Summary

Further reading

Terminology

Further reading

Further reading

1. Intro

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Overview

Further reading

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Evaluation

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History

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Funding

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History of the term

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Further reading

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Further reading

Evaluation

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Introduction

History of the term

Section 1 – Introduction

1.1 Summary

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Further reading

Further reading

History of the term

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Further reading