78:I[392826,["$2","$3","$4","$5","$6","$7","$8","$9","$a","$b","$c","$d","$2a","$2b"],"default"] 79:I[836637,["$2","$3","$4","$5","$6","$7","$8","$9","$a","$b","$c","$d","$2a","$2b"],"default"] 7a:T145f,

I run Sentinel, a team that seeks to anticipate and respond to large-scale risks. You can read our weekly minutes here. I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and generally becoming more formidable. I'm also a fairly good forecaster: I started out on predicting on Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell, but now do most of my forecasting through Samotsvety, of which Scott Alexander writes:

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

7b:T145f,

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

6c:["$","$L2d",null,{"pageSectionContext":"tagsSection","children":["$","div",null,{"data-component":"TopicPostsList","children":[["$","div",null,{"data-component":"SectionTitle","className":"flex items-center justify-between mb-1 min-h-8","children":[["$","div",null,{"id":"posts-tagged-criticism-of-effective-altruism","ref":"$undefined","style":"$undefined","className":"font-sans text-[13px] font-[700] leading-[16px] uppercase text-gray-600 ","data-component":"Type","data-style":"sectionTitleSmall","children":"Posts tagged Criticism of effective altruism"}],["$","div",null,{"children":["$","$L78",null,{"sortedBy":"top"}]}]]}],["$","$L79","top",{"tagId":"sSZ8pCvackwaY9vBx","tagName":"Criticism of effective altruism","sortedBy":"top","initialPosts":[{"_id":"zuqpqqFoue5LyutTv","slug":"the-ea-community-does-not-own-its-donors-money","title":"The EA community does not own its donors' money","url":null,"baseScore":653,"voteCount":328,"commentCount":116,"postedAt":"2023-01-18T18:59:52.086Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2023-01-19T09:55:57.908Z","draft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/v1674068392/mirroredImages/zuqpqqFoue5LyutTv/sva7wpd8rov78ewxhpob.png","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2023-02-26T22:55:32.930Z","sharingSettings":{"anyoneWithLinkCan":"comment","explicitlySharedUsersCan":"comment"},"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":null,"contents":{"wordCount":1260,"htmlHighlight":"

A number of recent proposals have detailed EA reforms. I have generally been unimpressed with these - they feel highly reactive and too tied to attractive sounding concepts (democratic, transparent, accountable) without well thought through mechanisms. I will try to expand my thoughts on these at a later time.

Today I focus on one element that seems at best confused and at worst highly destructive: large-scale, democratic control over EA funds.

..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"ZCihBFp5P64JCvQY6","core":true,"name":"Community","slug":"community","tagRel":{"_id":"RbyvzQzg2rk6qYFcP","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":7466,"description":"

The community topic covers posts about the effective altruism community, as well as applying EA in one's personal life. The tag also applies to posts about the Forum itself, since this is a community space. You should use the community tag if one of the following things is true:

The post is about EA a..."},{"_id":"EHLmbEmJ2Qd5WfwTb","core":true,"name":"Building effective altruism","slug":"building-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"qXrmzFqKk9yjKEYdy","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":7835,"description":"
Building effective altruism refers to the family of interventions aimed at growing, shaping, or otherwise improving effective altruism as a practical and intellectual community.
Examples of building effective altruism include starting..."},{"_id":"doAxFNMmB7qMbJsDR","core":false,"name":"Criticism of the effective altruism community","slug":"criticism-of-the-effective-altruism-community","tagRel":{"_id":"HAN7teARxewCEKvuq","voteType":null,"baseScore":5},"postCount":281,"description":"
Criticism of the effective altruism community includes criticism of behaviors, norms, and dynamics in the effective altruism community, as opposed to criticism of effective altruist causes,..."},{"_id":"sSZ8pCvackwaY9vBx","core":false,"name":"Criticism of effective altruism","slug":"criticism-of-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"FRBggpJGAF7G6vqQ5","voteType":null,"baseScore":5},"postCount":596,"description":"
Criticism of effective altruism collects critical discussion of effective altruism ideas (as opposed to criticism of effective altruist organizations,..."},{"_id":"yauh4AaKZcmRKdzFb","core":false,"name":"Criticism of work in effective altruism","slug":"criticism-of-work-in-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"feoWxe4Ktf9AFDTfs","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":221,"description":"
The Criticism of work in effective altruism tag applies to posts critically examining the work, projects, or methodologies of specific individuals, organizations, or initiatives affiliated with the effective altruism (EA) movement or community.
Related tags
..."},{"_id":"biEu68vAJfwthJ4vQ","core":false,"name":"Nonprofit governance","slug":"nonprofit-governance","tagRel":{"_id":"hAztCGXu4mjqvgkTw","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":124,"description":"
Nonprofit governance is the form in which nonprofit organizations are governed.
Topics related to nonprofit governance include:
- how do their boards work
- how can they run effectively
- what kind of structures should they follow
- what kind of protocols help people do good work
Rel..."},{"_id":"voyq7LkNhsFfYqddL","core":false,"name":"Transparency","slug":"transparency","tagRel":{"_id":"LZoyvMRLXZJxBiQg7","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":81,"description":"
Transparency is the extent to which outsiders can obtain information about the activities of government or private entities.
Some organizations in the effective altruism community have a strong commitment to transparency. GiveWell publishes full details of thei..."},{"_id":"nGqPZkKJuiKfAqDcs","core":false,"name":"Effective altruism funding","slug":"effective-altruism-funding","tagRel":{"_id":"sGDfr4XMKFyouc6h4","voteType":null,"baseScore":11},"postCount":454,"description":"
Posts with the effective altruism funding tag discuss EA funding networks, the availability of funds for different cause areas, grantmaking strategy, etc.
\n
Not meant for posts that discuss specific funding decisions (for that, use the \"Donation Writeup\"..."},{"_id":"tE5BRNibhQogNJExQ","core":false,"name":"Criticism of effective altruist organizations","slug":"criticism-of-effective-altruist-organizations","tagRel":{"_id":"rKJjNfdYFfhdNkcmR","voteType":null,"baseScore":11},"postCount":289,"description":"
The criticism of effective altruist organizations tag can apply to at least two kinds of posts:
- Posts criticizing the actions/strategy of a particular EA organization (or multiple orgs)
- Posts written by EA orgs or their representatives, if users have written critical comments responding to those posts

Related tags

Related entries

External links

Related entries

Related entries

Summary

Further reading

Terminology

Further reading

Further reading

Related tags

Summary

Further reading

Funding

Summary

My Experience with Forecasting

Further reading

Related entries

Further reading

Introduction / summary

History

Related entries

Funding

Related tags

Further reading

History of the term

Related tags