78:I[392826,["$2","$3","$4","$5","$6","$7","$8","$9","$a","$b","$c","$d","$e","$2b","$2c"],"default"] 79:I[836637,["$2","$3","$4","$5","$6","$7","$8","$9","$a","$b","$c","$d","$e","$2b","$2c"],"default"] 7a:T145f,

I run Sentinel, a team that seeks to anticipate and respond to large-scale risks. You can read our weekly minutes here. I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and generally becoming more formidable. I'm also a fairly good forecaster: I started out on predicting on Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell, but now do most of my forecasting through Samotsvety, of which Scott Alexander writes:

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

7b:Ta0f,

Jeffrey Kursonis built and co-built quite a number of non-profits in New York City, including The Haven, an arts and altruism collective with 300 people gathering weekly for ten years in Manhattan. A multicultural and altruistic faith community in Harlem, still going today. The New York City New Sanctuary Movement, one of two main hubs of the national network of faith communities giving sanctuary protection to undocumented families being pursued by Federal Immigration Law Enforcement. It’s a long list that formed a network of sorts.

After my work in NYC, a nascent national organization, Emergent Village, tapped me to lead their early growing network of local cohorts seeking to organize progressive religious leaders. I formed a team and we built it up to over 100 US cities, as well as many regional gatherings and other movement training and organizing (extremely similar to CEA). This “emerging church” movement changed the face of American religion by directly moving thousands of religious leaders and their congregations to the left, spawned a whole publishing genre, helped elect Obama, helped influence our Federal same sex marriage legal structure and sadly became a focal point of the conservative backlash unleashed by Trumpism. This is the second and biggest network I built.

My third network requires some discretion as it was built across a major authoritarian country and ended after a combination of Covid and government crackdowns.

As a side note, Jeffrey is no longer religious but still deeply appreciates the proven training ground religion provides. Here is a video we produced about the national cohort network, note my name as producer in the end credits: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-oaU29Z4dg

Jeffrey has been an active EA’er for over two years now, doing the Intro and Advanced Fellowships and working as a Meta-Moderator for Virtual Program trainings for new facilitators and actively posting on the forum. I recently applied to be on the CEA Virtual Programs new Advisory Board.

The very active EA Anywhere #role-film-and-tv group has been meeting weekly or biweekly with a number of subgroups working on various projects. It's become something of a mini incubator already producing a number of new org's and other smaller projects. Jeffrey has been an important organizer and momentum builder in the group. Expect to hear of a number of new inititatives arising out of the group.

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I have some claim to be an “old hand” EA:^[1]

I was in the room when the creation Giving What We Can was announced (although I vacillated about joining for quite a while)
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    Epistemic status: I mostly want to provide a starting point for discussion, not make any claims with high confidence.
    Introduction and summary
    It’s 2024. The effective altruism movement no longer exists, or is no longer doing productive work, for reasons our current selves wouldn’t endorse. What happened, and what could we have done about it in 2019?
    I’m concerned not to hear this question discussed more often (though CEA briefly speculates on it..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"X3KB4vCDhbRrC4qTP","core":false,"name":"Forum Prize","slug":"forum-prize","tagRel":{"_id":"5rd8ftnwonAYEWgFa","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":136,"description":"
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    I'm currently managing the Tarbell Center for AI Journalism’s reporting grants program.
    
    Previously, I researched international AI benefit-sharing at Pivotal Research and worked on executive support and events at the Centre for Effective Altruism (CEA). I also scaled up the EA Opportunity Board, interned at Global Challenges Project, and founded the EA student group at University of Wisconsin–Madison, where I studied Neurobiology and Psychology.
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    Status: Time-capped analysis.
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    I look at two social movements which I think failed in their time: the Spanish Enlightenment (1750-1850), and the General Semantics movement (1938-2003). The first one is more similar to the effective altruism community, and the second one is more similar to the rationality community.
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    Summary
    This is a case study on how The Alliance to Feed The Earth In Disasters (ALLFED) has activated its response capabilities due to the invasion of Ukraine (with its potential for global food systems risks and nuclear war).
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    Related entries
    global outreach |..."},{"_id":"KdxaNG2Fwkgh4ywFm","core":false,"name":"Nuclear security","slug":"nuclear-security","tagRel":{"_id":"Zhoz3iv6Ezjo8warY","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":291,"description":"
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    existential risk factor | global catastrophic risk..."},{"_id":"bTuCPLohLYPAeorzD","core":false,"name":"Resilient food","slug":"resilient-food","tagRel":{"_id":"pK5rLH2jYa9rkscig","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":80,"description":"
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    On the way out of EA.
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    Introduction
    Before November 2022, Effective Altruism only seemed to know success and growth. However, since November 2022, the EA movement has had to deal with significant criticism and multiple scandals. Some have even gone so far to declare that EA is dead or dying,^[1]..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"y4b45yXXrFJpPmx7d","core":false,"name":"Opinion","slug":"opinion","tagRel":{"_id":"6SNFLwDdRhDk9jnLZ","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":2173,"description":"
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    community experiences | community
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    AI safety advocates for the most part have taken an exclusively–and potentially excessively–friendly and cooperative approach with AI firms–and especially OpenAI. I am as guilty of this as anyone^[1]–but after the OpenAI disaster, it is irresponsible not to update on what happened and the new situation. While it still makes sense to emphasize and prioritize friendliness and..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"LewZxgj8DBwFzFd29","slug":"civilsociety","karma":82,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"civilsociety","createdAt":"2023-12-22T07:11:54.339+00:00","postCount":0,"displayName":"civilsociety","commentCount":0,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":null,"profileImageId":null}],"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"Y7DckZtXjsddZykpa","core":false,"name":"Movement collapse","slug":"movement-collapse","tagRel":{"_id":"TGZqgdkp7mjknSwXb","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":20,"description":"
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    Policy | United States
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    Healthy communities have all kinds. There is a magic in the plant world when a diversity of plants co-exist. Permaculture has been innovating through realizing how the community of plants help each other by each contributing a different gift to the benefit of the whole. Plants communicate with each other via mushroom like strands underground and work together. Interestingly, they speak French. Just kidding.
    
    I’ve been in a movement that changed the world in a positive way an..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"mAq9qa8rAyB6vM5z7","core":false,"name":"Diversity and inclusion","slug":"diversity-and-inclusion","tagRel":{"_id":"JoQhBqowA752moFYg","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":279,"description":"
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    ..."},{"_id":"Y7DckZtXjsddZykpa","core":false,"name":"Movement collapse","slug":"movement-collapse","tagRel":{"_id":"Cxono9csvKJbAtDFy","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":20,"description":"
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    edited: haven't published to the forum in a long time but I'm not surprised to get a little pushback, for some reason my writing infuriates people (?) ; adding to clarify ... this is not an attack, I come in peace, and was simply curious if this had been brought up elsewhere. Maybe I missed a memo, being out here on the fringes of the movement, but as someone with a background in psychology/branding and passion for film, I thought it was an interesting point.
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    This is crossposted from Medium. I've broken this into pieces there.
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Example 1: Why did the Spanish Enlightenment movement fail (1750-1850)?

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External links

Rel..."},{"_id":"v4gzbpLGCKaRABXPr","core":false,"name":"OpenAI","slug":"openai","tagRel":{"_id":"m9jvoXpQ4fbo2j3Mv","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":177,"description":"
OpenAI is an AI safety research and deployment company based in San Francisco.

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Rel..."},{"_id":"v4gzbpLGCKaRABXPr","core":false,"name":"OpenAI","slug":"openai","tagRel":{"_id":"m9jvoXpQ4fbo2j3Mv","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":177,"description":"OpenAI is an AI safety research and deployment company based in San Francisco.

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0

1 Preliminary literature survey

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OpenAI is an AI safety research and deployment company based in San Francisco.