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I run Sentinel, a team that seeks to anticipate and respond to large-scale risks. You can read our weekly minutes here. I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and generally becoming more formidable. I'm also a fairly good forecaster: I started out on predicting on Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell, but now do most of my forecasting through Samotsvety, of which Scott Alexander writes:

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

78:T887,

I'm a researcher at Forethought; before that, I ran the non-engineering side of the EA Forum (this platform), ran the EA Newsletter, and worked on some other content-related tasks at CEA. [More about the Forum/CEA Online job.]

Selected posts

Background

I finished my undergraduate studies with a double major in mathematics and comparative literature in 2021. I was a research fellow at Rethink Priorities in the summer of 2021 and was then hired by the Events Team at CEA. I later switched to the Online Team. In the past, I've also done some (math) research and worked at Canada/USA Mathcamp.

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Luisa Rodriguez is research analyst at 80,000 Hours. Previously, she researched civilisational collapse at the Forethought Foundation for Global Priorities Research, and nuclear war at Rethink Priorities and as a visiting researcher at the Future of Humanity Institute. Before that, she conducted cost-effectiveness evaluations of nonprofit and government programs at ImpactMatters, Innovations for Poverty Action, and GiveWell (as a summer intern).

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Epistemic transparency: Confidence in conclusions varies throughout. I give rough indicators of my confidence at the section level by indicating the amount of time I spent researching/thinking about each particular subtopic, plus a qualitative description of the types of sources I rely on. In general, I consider it a first step toward understanding this threat from civilizational collapse — not a final or decisive one.

Acknowledgements

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Related entries

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Related entries

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Terminology

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Are you a fan of engaging, epistemically rigorous longform writing about the world's most pressing problems? Interested in in-depth interviews with leading scholars? A reader of taste and discernment? Sick of FTXcourse?
Distract yourself with the inaugural issue of Asterisk Magazine, out now!
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Related entries
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AI alignment |..."},{"_id":"aJnrnnobcBNWRsfAw","core":true,"name":"Forecasting","slug":"forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"mEzS2jnquAyorzfDK","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2078,"description":"
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After recent events in Ukraine, Samotsvety convened to update our probabilities of nuclear war. In March 2022, at the beginning of the Ukraine war, we were at ~0.01% that London would be hit with a nuclear weapon in the next month. Now, we are at ~0.02% for the next 1-3 months, and at 16% that Russia uses any type of nuclear weapon..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"zqNybc7AuKEYYwWRq","slug":"misha_yagudin","karma":2236,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"Misha_Yagudin","createdAt":"2019-02-02T11:25:47.115+00:00","postCount":3,"displayName":"Misha_Yagudin","commentCount":269,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":"
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Open Philanthropy is seeking proposals from those interested in contributing to a research project informing and estimating biosecurity-relevant numbers and ‘base rates’. We welcome proposals from both research organizations and individuals (at any career stage, including undergraduate and postgraduate students). The work can be structured via contract or grant.
The application deadline is June 5th.
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..."},{"_id":"nBiPDg9XitwzHhvGB","core":false,"name":"Terrorism","slug":"terrorism","tagRel":{"_id":"qoDaEr7eELdZxKkFa","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":19,"description":"
Related entries
armed conflict | autonomous weapon | biosecurity |..."},{"_id":"be4pBryMKxLhkmgvE","core":false,"name":"Funding opportunities","slug":"funding-opportunities","tagRel":{"_id":"vce6XX4yRMhz4KLNa","voteType":null,"baseScore":5},"postCount":232,"description":"
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Opportunities for funding
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The term \"biosecurity\" has different meanings in different contexts. As a few examples:
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Although people spend more time on their jobs than on any other activity besides sleep—about 80,000 hours over the course of a typical life..."},{"_id":"toct8RYvTvgontEts","core":false,"name":"Coefficient Giving","slug":"coefficient-giving","tagRel":{"_id":"tvZnW6NysaDoz3fsr","voteType":null,"baseScore":5},"postCount":317,"description":"
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Author: Finan Adamson
Last Updated 03/2022

Overview
This doc is to help you prepare for the tail risk of nuclear war. Estimates vary, but an EA Forum survey put the annual probability of US-Russia nuclear war at 0.24%. This doc will go into some detail on threat models of nuclear war and..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"pmALcrKQBDgFMyqqt","core":false,"name":"Global catastrophic risk","slug":"global-catastrophic-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"SpDmM6erij332Jqcb","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":300,"description":"
A global catastrophic risk (GCR) is an event that poses a risk of major harm on a global scale.^[1]
GCRs risks include, but are not restricted to,..."},{"_id":"AMEgA2KBBEXzjK5Cm","core":false,"name":"Weapons of mass destruction","slug":"weapons-of-mass-destruction","tagRel":{"_id":"SqDKjkSx69DbT3iMN","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":44,"description":"
Weapons of mass destruction (WMD) are weapons whose destructive capacity far exceeds that of conventional weaponry. Modern WMDs are nuclear, biological or chemical weapons, which are frequently referred to collectively as NBC weapons.
Related entries
..."},{"_id":"RysvCQBYTie5u62rH","core":false,"name":"Civilizational collapse","slug":"civilizational-collapse","tagRel":{"_id":"EyeWRasvbxuHjf6Gz","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":148,"description":"
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An existential risk is a risk that threatens the destruction of the long-term potential of life.^[1] An existential risk could threaten the..."}]},{"_id":"MRkqBrokab8iqKnuH","slug":"remembering-joseph-rotblat-born-on-this-day-in-1908","title":"Remembering Joseph Rotblat (born on this day in 1908)","url":null,"baseScore":92,"voteCount":29,"commentCount":7,"postedAt":"2024-11-05T00:51:41.123Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2024-11-05T14:04:26.827Z","draft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/MRkqBrokab8iqKnuH/srfgx1epk4qmao7g0anl","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2024-11-06T15:51:24.239Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"SuPnfB9qqKWsucNzm","slug":"lizka","displayName":"Lizka","username":"Lizka","createdAt":"2019-11-06T06:22:18.538Z","profileImageId":"Profile/llwmfw62hcsq2vuk1n7g","karma":18075,"jobTitle":"Researcher","organization":"Forethought","postCount":154,"commentCount":580,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"$78"},"contents":{"wordCount":2650,"htmlHighlight":"
Joseph Rotblat was born in Warsaw on November 4, 1908.
He is one of the advisors I’d like to have on my shoulder, so on his birthday, I want to share a bit about his life and reflect on it.
As a brief overview, Rotblat:
Was the only scientist to leave the Manhattan Project on moral grounds
Founded and led the Pugwash Conferences, for which he was awarded the Nobel P..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"vd76W2y5p8TKCu9MG","core":false,"name":"Events on the EA Forum","slug":"events-on-the-ea-forum","tagRel":{"_id":"5ZqvQc8uubGqdGX9w","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":241,"description":"
This page lists notable past events hosted on or related to the Effective Altruism Forum. Events are grouped by type and listed alphabetically within each group. Recurring events are listed by year.
(If you’d like to help sort these by date, feel free to su..."},{"_id":"np3gJZwzfmFJzkGK8","core":false,"name":"Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs","slug":"pugwash-conferences-on-science-and-world-affairs","tagRel":{"_id":"syrSZANd3oDu6qrS6","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":4,"description":"
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Further reading
Aird, Michael (2021)..."},{"_id":"AMEgA2KBBEXzjK5Cm","core":false,"name":"Weapons of mass destruction","slug":"weapons-of-mass-destruction","tagRel":{"_id":"vezMiww6EbAiRiyjj","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":44,"description":"
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Related entries
..."},{"_id":"aA4tCJrkoy9aeXvfN","core":false,"name":"Technology race","slug":"technology-race","tagRel":{"_id":"DzvHeavwe54xPwikq","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":47,"description":"
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Further reading
Moynihan, Thomas (2020) X-Risk: How Humanity Discovered Its Own Extinction, Falmouth: Urbanomic.
Righetti, Luca & Fin Moorhouse (2021) Thomas Moynihan on the history of exis..."},{"_id":"5GNwgf92y57qBq3TA","core":false,"name":"Manhattan Project","slug":"manhattan-project","tagRel":{"_id":"GqXipmPSfyojpZ3Hd","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":5,"description":"
The Manhattan Project was the codename for a research and development undertaking to develop an atom bomb during World War II. It culminated on 16 July 1945 with Trinity, the first detonation of a nuclear weapon.
Further reading
Else, Jon (1981)..."},{"_id":"KdxaNG2Fwkgh4ywFm","core":false,"name":"Nuclear security","slug":"nuclear-security","tagRel":{"_id":"bFs5cpeFJyn2zYxzB","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":290,"description":"
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Nuclear war is potentially the primary near-term..."},{"_id":"pmALcrKQBDgFMyqqt","core":false,"name":"Global catastrophic risk","slug":"global-catastrophic-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"rjLzkrkFbeg9vJiJS","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":300,"description":"
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GCRs risks include, but are not restricted to,..."},{"_id":"t2L2RziMDLEuHBWNF","core":false,"name":"Longtermism","slug":"longtermism","tagRel":{"_id":"NuwJfpHWFKRpcQCJR","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":1068,"description":"
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How can one..."},{"_id":"4eyeLKC64Yvznzt6Z","core":true,"name":"Philosophy","slug":"philosophy","tagRel":{"_id":"rLvZzGYEDDs4NRsfC","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":3596,"description":"
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This is a blog post, not a research report, meaning it was produced relatively quickly and is not to Rethink Priorities' typical standards of substantiveness and careful checking for accuracy.
Summary
This post is a shallow exploration of some technological developments that might occur and might increase risks from nuclear weapons—especiall..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"oZa9wz3nG2wgW98az","slug":"will-aldred","karma":5348,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"Will Aldred","createdAt":"2021-04-23T20:11:16.281+00:00","postCount":22,"displayName":"Will Aldred","commentCount":268,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":"","profileImageId":"Profile/ofdnepsya0vvsgsgvrqe"}],"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"ee66CtAMYurQreWBH","core":true,"name":"Existential risk","slug":"existential-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"FPu4o2ugGuD85xXNf","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":4360,"description":"
An existential risk is a risk that threatens the destruction of the long-term potential of life.^[1] An existential risk could threaten the..."},{"_id":"DwJY53daQyQq8eWo7","core":false,"name":"Armed conflict","slug":"armed-conflict","tagRel":{"_id":"zqB5wXrueRybZHci6","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":138,"description":"
The armed conflict tag is for posts about interstate or intrastate violence between armed groups, the drivers of such conflicts, and interventions to reduce the frequency or severity of such conflicts.
Further reading
Garfinkel, Ben & Allan Dafoe (2019) Ho..."},{"_id":"zQ4hMjcYm5yEKkvQz","core":false,"name":"Atomically precise manufacturing","slug":"atomically-precise-manufacturing","tagRel":{"_id":"6hYXsanXBpB5vmphp","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":23,"description":"
Atomically precise manufacturing (APM) is a proposed technology for assembling a wide variety of macroscopic structures molecule-by-molecule with atomic precision.
Evaluation
80,000 Hours rates atomically precise manufacturing a \"po..."},{"_id":"4neBBrvXansMnDdfi","core":false,"name":"Great power conflict","slug":"great-power-conflict","tagRel":{"_id":"beeEs9jLD5N6C7fvf","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":108,"description":"
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Evaluation
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Technical alignment..."},{"_id":"EHXNGqENrziYQJsox","core":false,"name":"AI forecasting","slug":"ai-forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"ngzMTvNPEr8wxbeyQ","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":540,"description":"
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Further reading
Cotra, Ajeya (2020) ..."},{"_id":"AMEgA2KBBEXzjK5Cm","core":false,"name":"Weapons of mass destruction","slug":"weapons-of-mass-destruction","tagRel":{"_id":"pBwkKq8YHbG6fzjxF","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":44,"description":"
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Related entries
..."},{"_id":"mR7SeshNbRoKoCqTJ","core":false,"name":"Information security","slug":"information-security","tagRel":{"_id":"kzMfAm4d3Bmug3vc7","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":139,"description":"
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Further reading
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Related entries
..."}]},{"_id":"TwpoedzMpmy7k7NKH","slug":"can-a-war-cause-human-extinction-once-again-not-on-priors","title":"Can a war cause human extinction? Once again, not on priors","url":null,"baseScore":67,"voteCount":24,"commentCount":29,"postedAt":"2024-01-25T07:56:01.170Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2024-01-25T11:16:01.722Z","draft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/TwpoedzMpmy7k7NKH/e6vh60qvuqdxsxdfbu33","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2024-01-25T07:56:01.170Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"nNfjHtnpmDHqYQGfP","slug":"vasco-grilo","displayName":"Vasco Grilo🔸","username":"vascoamaralgrilo","createdAt":"2020-07-31T09:45:15.873Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":12072,"jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":279,"commentCount":3451,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"
I am a generalist quantitative researcher. I am open to volunteering and paid work. I welcome suggestions for posts. You can give me feedback here (anonymously or not).
"},"contents":{"wordCount":5386,"htmlHighlight":"
Summary
Stephen Clare’s classic EA Forum post How likely is World War III? concludes “the chance of an extinction-level war [this century] is about 1%”. I commented that..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"esfWkmTPD6umRaWoB","core":false,"name":"Crucial consideration","slug":"crucial-consideration","tagRel":{"_id":"BgCy3kq5QkxevTQGm","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":58,"description":"
A crucial consideration is a consideration that warrants a major reassessment of a cause or intervention.
The concept was introduced by Nick Bostrom in a 2007 article^{..."},{"_id":"pmALcrKQBDgFMyqqt","core":false,"name":"Global catastrophic risk","slug":"global-catastrophic-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"RBj42iKEaNpAiozxm","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":300,"description":"}
A global catastrophic risk (GCR) is an event that poses a risk of major harm on a global scale.^[1]
GCRs risks include, but are not restricted to,..."},{"_id":"AMEgA2KBBEXzjK5Cm","core":false,"name":"Weapons of mass destruction","slug":"weapons-of-mass-destruction","tagRel":{"_id":"k9u2RztdmZm9bbueZ","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":44,"description":"
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Related entries
..."},{"_id":"ee66CtAMYurQreWBH","core":true,"name":"Existential risk","slug":"existential-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"qGLQsGhgD7wGAuFGD","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":4360,"description":"
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Further reading
Garfinkel, Ben & Allan Dafoe (2019) Ho..."},{"_id":"MY2hgLkhKPj2bb3tj","core":false,"name":"Human extinction","slug":"human-extinction","tagRel":{"_id":"ZfKecHnbGygsG5rca","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":55,"description":"
Human extinction is the destruction of all members of the species Homo sapiens.
In Toby Ord's typology, human extinction constitutes one of the three main types of existential ca..."},{"_id":"hxRMaKvwGqPb43TWB","core":false,"name":"Research","slug":"research","tagRel":{"_id":"Bm7BAo9n7fH4ukhbh","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":2704,"description":"
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Criticism of longtermism and existential risk studies collects critical discussions of longtermism and existential risk studies.
Further reading
Melchin, Denise (2021)..."},{"_id":"eqFGMqFaAY95KekSM","core":false,"name":"Inside vs. outside view","slug":"inside-vs-outside-view","tagRel":{"_id":"BhtiqidTG4nBpxteP","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":23,"description":"
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A great power conflict is a military confrontation between states capable of projecting their influence on a global scale.
Evaluation
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Cause prioritization refers to efforts to find the most pressing problems to work on and compare interventions across different cause areas so that we can do as much good as possible with the resources available to us.
Governments and philanthropists spend considerable resources attempting to do good in the world...."},{"_id":"aJnrnnobcBNWRsfAw","core":true,"name":"Forecasting","slug":"forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"tagDvRistYPCK6XAw","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":2078,"description":"
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Related entries
..."},{"_id":"tRqH8tbgwDNpcMyGP","core":false,"name":"Red teaming","slug":"red-teaming","tagRel":{"_id":"4YZXsbGQpadGQRWH7","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":88,"description":"
A red team is an independent group that challenges an organization or movement in order to improve it. Red teaming is the practice of using red teams.
History of the term
The term \"red teaming\" appears to originate in the United States military. A common exercise was to pitch an offensive \"red team..."},{"_id":"5R7s7dweoeBvcb9Yk","core":false,"name":"Estimation of existential risk","slug":"estimation-of-existential-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"28y6xBpbrix5rgW3e","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":65,"description":"
Estimation of existential risk is the set of methods for assessing the probability of human extinction and other existential catastrophes.
Further reading
Bear..."},{"_id":"EHLmbEmJ2Qd5WfwTb","core":true,"name":"Building effective altruism","slug":"building-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"Wg7Fcje5hQbijxXBD","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":7835,"description":"
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Related tags
..."}]},{"_id":"aoAkWaMLAHSprNBko","slug":"a-creepy-feeling-nixon-s-decision-to-disavow-biological","title":"\"A Creepy Feeling\": Nixon's Decision to Disavow Biological Weapons","url":null,"baseScore":48,"voteCount":17,"commentCount":3,"postedAt":"2022-09-30T15:17:40.384Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2022-09-30T16:09:17.206Z","draft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2022-09-30T23:54:32.463Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"6vpsLfTA9XYSzdyhm","slug":"tw123","displayName":"TW123","username":"ThomasWoodside","createdAt":"2020-09-20T20:39:34.518Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":3740,"jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":27,"commentCount":177,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":""},"contents":{"wordCount":5109,"htmlHighlight":"
I wrote this paper for a class in December 2021. I had been meaning to put it up on the forum for a while, but only just now got around to it. I found this research useful for my own understanding of the kinds of events that can contribute to dramatic policy changes. At the end I mention the obvious relevance to autonomous weapons regulation, but I think that lessons learned apply to all kinds of regulation of dangerous technologies.
In September of 1950, a ship sailed by the Gol..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"hC88x9hNZ7cJYLu8q","core":false,"name":"History","slug":"history","tagRel":{"_id":"Dfcqzfhop2QfXLRcf","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":206,"description":"
The history tag is for posts that are strongly focused on historical events or trends (rather than just mentioning these things briefly), or that discuss or make heavy use of historical research methods.
Further reading
Aird, Michael (2021)..."},{"_id":"of9xBvR3wpbp6qsZC","core":true,"name":"Policy","slug":"policy","tagRel":{"_id":"PTBSQ4Ac9viCqcQbz","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":3248,"description":"
The policy topic is very broad, covering any post about improving government policy (in developing and developed countries alike).
Improving policy
Governments are typically committed to the notion that their policies should be effective. This means that members of the effective altruist community can be in a good..."},{"_id":"snoR2mXkTa84R5cCG","core":false,"name":"Global catastrophic biological risk","slug":"global-catastrophic-biological-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"qaaYRArMJQ2zvxvJE","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":122,"description":"
A global catastrophic biological risk (GCBR) is a global catastrophic risk that is biological in nature.^[1]..."},{"_id":"ee66CtAMYurQreWBH","core":true,"name":"Existential risk","slug":"existential-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"KFyBR7g6kxrYRdekN","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":4360,"description":"
An existential risk is a risk that threatens the destruction of the long-term potential of life.^[1] An existential risk could threaten the..."},{"_id":"H43gvLzBCacxxamPe","core":true,"name":"Biosecurity","slug":"biosecurity","tagRel":{"_id":"tc7wAn3A4ciK5fJBh","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":1589,"description":"
Biosecurity covers the procedures, practices and other measures used to manage risks from biological agents (e.g. viruses, bacteria) or their products (e.g. toxins).
Terminology
The term \"biosecurity\" has different meanings in different contexts. As a few examples:
In agriculture, biosecurity usually ref..."},{"_id":"AMEgA2KBBEXzjK5Cm","core":false,"name":"Weapons of mass destruction","slug":"weapons-of-mass-destruction","tagRel":{"_id":"W9MFi7MuhqLFa8xFc","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":44,"description":"
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Related entries
..."}]},{"_id":"dCb8tWsAmbYPSiqYT","slug":"military-artificial-intelligence-as-contributor-to-global","title":"Military Artificial Intelligence as Contributor to Global Catastrophic Risk","url":null,"baseScore":42,"voteCount":15,"commentCount":0,"postedAt":"2022-06-27T10:35:48.017Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2022-06-27T19:38:35.200Z","draft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2022-06-27T10:35:48.017Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"pkPSEeFAKksoMxgAk","slug":"matthijsmaas","displayName":"MMMaas","username":"MatthijsMaas","createdAt":"2016-01-19T16:27:42.190Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":696,"jobTitle":"Senior Research Fellow","organization":"Institute for Law & AI","postCount":9,"commentCount":23,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"
Matthijs Maas
Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Law & AI
Research Affiliate, Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence, University of Cambridge.
https://www.matthijsmaas.com/ | https://linktr.ee/matthijsmaas
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Note: the below is a chapter by Matthijs Maas, Kayla Matteucci, and Di Cooke (CSER), for a forthcoming book on new avenues of research on Global Catastrophic Risk. The chapter explores whether, or in what ways, the military use of AI could constitute or contribute to Global Catastrophic Risk. A PDF of the chapter is also available at SSRN (see also ..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"RAsMz7iipFXzoicnm","slug":"di-cooke","karma":57,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"Di Cooke","createdAt":"2022-06-25T16:05:46.456+00:00","postCount":0,"displayName":"Di Cooke","commentCount":0,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":null,"profileImageId":null}],"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"DGhyx7Bk33Ghi5koD","core":false,"name":"Autonomous weapon","slug":"autonomous-weapon","tagRel":{"_id":"3EvCtGeXydedeewH8","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":36,"description":"
An autonomous weapon is a weapon system that, once activated, can select and engage targets without further intervention by a human operator.
Further reading
Piper, Kelsey (2019) Death by algorithm: the age of killer rob..."},{"_id":"4neBBrvXansMnDdfi","core":false,"name":"Great power conflict","slug":"great-power-conflict","tagRel":{"_id":"5XC8iKFDrxTnKvgwH","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":108,"description":"
A great power conflict is a military confrontation between states capable of projecting their influence on a global scale.
Evaluation
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Related entries
..."},{"_id":"pmALcrKQBDgFMyqqt","core":false,"name":"Global catastrophic risk","slug":"global-catastrophic-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"HihyXW2B2pXDsYGez","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":300,"description":"
A global catastrophic risk (GCR) is an event that poses a risk of major harm on a global scale.^[1]
GCRs risks include, but are not restricted to,..."},{"_id":"ee66CtAMYurQreWBH","core":true,"name":"Existential risk","slug":"existential-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"KxvvxPwgBJ43cwyHs","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":4360,"description":"
An existential risk is a risk that threatens the destruction of the long-term potential of life.^[1] An existential risk could threaten the..."},{"_id":"PP9hnptiErAHmPEKL","core":false,"name":"AI race","slug":"ai-race","tagRel":{"_id":"QzHAYfC7vigqmYsoa","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":128,"description":"
An AI race is a competition between rival teams to first develop advanced artificial intelligence.
Terminology
The expression \"AI race\" may be used in a somewhat narrower sense to describe a competition to attain military superiority via..."},{"_id":"KdxaNG2Fwkgh4ywFm","core":false,"name":"Nuclear security","slug":"nuclear-security","tagRel":{"_id":"ak2xw9cwLYtKoK4EQ","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":290,"description":"
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Nuclear war is potentially the primary near-term..."},{"_id":"uu4eksgjZX5Ru8XHm","core":false,"name":"Nuclear winter","slug":"nuclear-winter","tagRel":{"_id":"t8XpJWwcJ5mi6McKd","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":107,"description":"
Nuclear winter is a severe and prolonged global climatic cooling effect triggered by stratospheric smoke from firestorms following a large-scale nuclear war.
Related entries
..."},{"_id":"oNiQsBHA3i837sySD","core":true,"name":"AI safety","slug":"ai-safety","tagRel":{"_id":"hHxhN8CssfmfMGRQr","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":7251,"description":"
AI safety is the study of ways to reduce risks posed by artificial intelligence.
Interventions that aim to reduce these risks can be split into:
Technical alignment..."}]},{"_id":"qmh9bWAthovqoew8z","slug":"ea-needs-more-humor","title":"EA needs more humor","url":null,"baseScore":36,"voteCount":33,"commentCount":14,"postedAt":"2022-12-01T05:30:10.128Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2022-12-01T05:51:39.925Z","draft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2022-12-03T20:53:07.452Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"Df8KD8qEsHSN2osex","slug":"swk","displayName":"SWK","username":"SWK","createdAt":"2022-11-30T03:25:17.294Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":96,"jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":6,"commentCount":8,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":null},"contents":{"wordCount":1498,"htmlHighlight":"
In the wake of the FTX collapse, much ink has been spilled on EA reform by people smarter and more experienced in this space than I am. However, as someone who has been engaging with EA over the past few years and who has become increasingly connected with the community, I have a modest proposal I’d like to share: EA needs more humor.
Criticism of EA has roots back in the “earning to give” era...."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"psBzwdY8ipfCeExJ7","core":true,"name":"Cause prioritization","slug":"cause-prioritization","tagRel":{"_id":"6sdaD3r8FFDt6iETf","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":4086,"description":"
Cause prioritization refers to efforts to find the most pressing problems to work on and compare interventions across different cause areas so that we can do as much good as possible with the resources available to us.
Governments and philanthropists spend considerable resources attempting to do good in the world...."},{"_id":"BjdHNs5r3GDqve5Yo","core":false,"name":"Fish welfare","slug":"fish-welfare","tagRel":{"_id":"Ddi99fs2gaoyueHKN","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":121,"description":"
Fish welfare is the study of interventions aimed at improving the welfare of fish.
Further reading
Torrella, Kenny (2021) The next frontier for animal welfare: Fish, Vox, March 2.
An informative popular overview o..."},{"_id":"4CH9vsvzyk4mSKwyZ","core":true,"name":"Career choice","slug":"career-choice","tagRel":{"_id":"G5X3cyWBNFpriuuEj","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":3506,"description":"
Career choice (in effective altruism) is about the ethical and practical considerations relevant to finding a high-impact career.
Although people spend more time on their jobs than on any other activity besides sleep—about 80,000 hours over the course of a typical life..."},{"_id":"is8kynTqvpzQ5RtEh","core":false,"name":"Constraints on effective altruism","slug":"constraints-on-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"aa6Dd4gayi4ZJAF4d","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":62,"description":"
The effective altruism community requires various resources that exist in limited supply, such as talent, funding, entrepreneurship, vetting, risk tolerance, and the ability to coordinate. These resources may be seen as constraints on effective altruism, insofar as they limit the community's capacity to at..."},{"_id":"AMEgA2KBBEXzjK5Cm","core":false,"name":"Weapons of mass destruction","slug":"weapons-of-mass-destruction","tagRel":{"_id":"jccijCw5u33i73RZ6","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":44,"description":"
Weapons of mass destruction (WMD) are weapons whose destructive capacity far exceeds that of conventional weaponry. Modern WMDs are nuclear, biological or chemical weapons, which are frequently referred to collectively as NBC weapons.
Related entries
..."},{"_id":"ZCihBFp5P64JCvQY6","core":true,"name":"Community","slug":"community","tagRel":{"_id":"nBhNYGzic4DakdL9H","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":7466,"description":"
The community topic covers posts about the effective altruism community, as well as applying EA in one's personal life. The tag also applies to posts about the Forum itself, since this is a community space. You should use the community tag if one of the following things is true:
The post is about EA a..."},{"_id":"vM9C2kQS5i45zmiBd","core":false,"name":"Non-humans and the long-term future","slug":"non-humans-and-the-long-term-future","tagRel":{"_id":"quuSLoKPMH9uf8CHu","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":108,"description":"
The non-humans and the long-term future tag is for posts relevant to questions such as:
To what extent (if at all) is longtermism focused only on humans?
To what extent should longtermists focus on improving wellbeing (or other outcomes) for hum..."},{"_id":"ee66CtAMYurQreWBH","core":true,"name":"Existential risk","slug":"existential-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"zZXdtWEH6soSeqM6n","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":4360,"description":"
An existential risk is a risk that threatens the destruction of the long-term potential of life.^[1] An existential risk could threaten the..."},{"_id":"QdH9f8TC6G8oGYdgt","core":true,"name":"Animal welfare","slug":"animal-welfare","tagRel":{"_id":"rXdPr3tcBcs8QsHyz","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":3295,"description":"
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This is a blog post, not a research report, meaning it was produced relatively quickly and is not to Rethink Priorities' typical standards of substantiveness and careful checking for accuracy.
Summary
What is this post?
This post is the first part of what was intended to be a shallow review of potential “intermediate goals”^{[1]..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"oZa9wz3nG2wgW98az","slug":"will-aldred","karma":5348,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"Will Aldred","createdAt":"2021-04-23T20:11:16.281+00:00","postCount":22,"displayName":"Will Aldred","commentCount":268,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":"","profileImageId":"Profile/ofdnepsya0vvsgsgvrqe"}],"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"AMEgA2KBBEXzjK5Cm","core":false,"name":"Weapons of mass destruction","slug":"weapons-of-mass-destruction","tagRel":{"_id":"SHtJNyCtw5WxEX3JZ","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":44,"description":"}
Weapons of mass destruction (WMD) are weapons whose destructive capacity far exceeds that of conventional weaponry. Modern WMDs are nuclear, biological or chemical weapons, which are frequently referred to collectively as NBC weapons.
Related entries
..."},{"_id":"owNLynbzxqLfMzEfB","core":false,"name":"Proliferation","slug":"proliferation","tagRel":{"_id":"2WwcDQhZ7xQurivna","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":33,"description":"
Proliferation is the spread of weapons, technologies, or things useful in producing weapons or technologies to actors who did not previously have those things. The term \"proliferation\" is especially associated with the spread of weapons of mass dest..."},{"_id":"KdxaNG2Fwkgh4ywFm","core":false,"name":"Nuclear security","slug":"nuclear-security","tagRel":{"_id":"AESD5yAAffNTEnnSY","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":290,"description":"
Nuclear security is the set of procedures, practices or other measures used to manage risks from nuclear weapons and other nuclear materials.
Nuclear war is potentially the primary near-term..."},{"_id":"4neBBrvXansMnDdfi","core":false,"name":"Great power conflict","slug":"great-power-conflict","tagRel":{"_id":"BpPKfgfzjc2mCZm28","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":108,"description":"
A great power conflict is a military confrontation between states capable of projecting their influence on a global scale.
Evaluation
80,000 Hours rates great power conflict a \"potential highest priority area\": an issue that, if more thoroughly exam..."},{"_id":"DwJY53daQyQq8eWo7","core":false,"name":"Armed conflict","slug":"armed-conflict","tagRel":{"_id":"gQPDpepBPiqC2zgrZ","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":138,"description":"
The armed conflict tag is for posts about interstate or intrastate violence between armed groups, the drivers of such conflicts, and interventions to reduce the frequency or severity of such conflicts.
Further reading
Garfinkel, Ben & Allan Dafoe (2019) Ho..."},{"_id":"ee66CtAMYurQreWBH","core":true,"name":"Existential risk","slug":"existential-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"tpQynQ2AL7C8stqtd","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":4360,"description":"
An existential risk is a risk that threatens the destruction of the long-term potential of life.[1] An existential risk could threaten the..."},{"_id":"aJnrnnobcBNWRsfAw","core":true,"name":"Forecasting","slug":"forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"SudeSixRCSe7FPrT4","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":2078,"description":"
Forecasting is an important tool for improving the future, because good forecasts and estimates can help us appropriately plan interventions and assess risks. Over the past several decades there has been significant research and investment in forecasting and estimation techniques, tools, and organizations. This continues to be a..."},{"_id":"gCzFfErskfQzD6b95","core":false,"name":"Rethink Priorities","slug":"rethink-priorities","tagRel":{"_id":"L4jMsrcsz5CTemtpj","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":447,"description":"
Rethink Priorities is a think tank dedicated to informing decisions made by high-impact organisations and funders. It works across various cause areas such as longtermism (including forecasting,..."}]},{"_id":"kMSLah9k5RDnJxi3J","slug":"contra-sagan-on-asteroid-weaponization","title":"Contra Sagan on Asteroid Weaponization ","url":null,"baseScore":24,"voteCount":6,"commentCount":1,"postedAt":"2024-12-04T17:49:28.674Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2024-12-04T19:09:47.129Z","draft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":{"imageId":"SocialPreview/hlfprsytmnd8sler1lcx"},"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/kMSLah9k5RDnJxi3J/vjxdxfpxf5hzx6efdpjj","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2024-12-09T15:09:55.014Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"GFyXDqbWPhoAY4ggb","slug":"christian-r","displayName":"christian.r","username":"christian.r","createdAt":"2022-03-04T18:39:47.171Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":1177,"jobTitle":"Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness","organization":"Coefficient Giving","postCount":18,"commentCount":55,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"
Biosecurity at Coefficient Giving. Previously GCR Lead at Founders Pledge.
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Assessing the Risks of Dual-Use SSSB Deflection

With thanks to Stephen Clare, Matthew Gentzel, Fin Moorhouse, Matt Lerner, Shaan Shaikh, and others for their thoughts and comments on previous versions of this document.
Summary
A small solar system body (SSSB)—a term used by the International Astronomical Union—is an object in the solar system that is not a planet, dwarf planet, or satellite...."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"ee66CtAMYurQreWBH","core":true,"name":"Existential risk","slug":"existential-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"GWLJ6eJ3F4iami6sB","voteType":null,"baseScore":5},"postCount":4360,"description":"
An existential risk is a risk that threatens the destruction of the long-term potential of life.^[1] An existential risk could threaten the..."},{"_id":"pmALcrKQBDgFMyqqt","core":false,"name":"Global catastrophic risk","slug":"global-catastrophic-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"kaZgtP3XCo8AsR3so","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":300,"description":"
A global catastrophic risk (GCR) is an event that poses a risk of major harm on a global scale.^[1]
GCRs risks include, but are not restricted to,..."},{"_id":"zHqdAsiiXiyaS3zw9","core":false,"name":"Asteroids","slug":"asteroids","tagRel":{"_id":"jZemokynfARwZZgFs","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":22,"description":"
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This post is part of a series of rough posts on nuclear risk research ideas. I strongly recommend that, before you read this post, you read the series’ summary & introduction post for context, caveats, and to see the list of other ideas. One caveat that’s especially worth flagging here..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"KdxaNG2Fwkgh4ywFm","core":false,"name":"Nuclear security","slug":"nuclear-security","tagRel":{"_id":"4KxzeMexFre28ctfK","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":290,"description":"
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“That’s the sound of a chemical weapon dying,” said Kingston Reif, who spent years pushing for disarmament outside government and is now the deputy assistant secretary of defense for threat reduction and arms control. He smiled as another shell clanked into the dumpster.

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Acknowledgements

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