Thank you very much for your kindness, I would email you later

Thanks for your answering a lot first. Well, I know that most EA organizations and grantmakers said talent is primary constraint. However the fact seems to be it's very difficult to get a job in EA organizations. I'm unsure, but it also seems difficult(like less than 50% success rate) to get independent research fundings from grantmakers. Of course that if you have great talent on researching it'll be way easier to get fundings, but I'll probably just become a mediocrity researcher, therefore I probably can't rely on EA grantmakers to support me.

Ｗhat do you think about my main question: Is it difficult to find or create altruistic work within non-EA organizations?(especially in reducing AI s-risks)

Hello Thao: Thanks a lot for your patience replying first. 

I don’t think double majoring itself is difficult, but it is very time-consuming. It would require 4–5 additional years of studying medicine and doing hospital internships. Since I believe AI s-risks are probably far more important than bio x-risks and global health, I think it makes more sense to major only in CS and contribute directly, rather than spending those extra years learning medicine.

However, I’m worried that without enough financial security, I might end up working in non-EA organizations until retirement and be unable to focus on the most altruistic work. That’s my main concern: How likely is it to find a career outside EA organizations that still allows me to work on altruistic goals, such as reducing AI s-risks?

In Taiwan, medical and dental school tuition is very cheap, so debt wouldn’t be an issue. In fact, I’m considering switching from medicine to dentistry, because dental residency is 2–4 years shorter than medical residency. Based on my estimation, after graduating it might take around 5 years to earn about $500k if I choose the dentist path.

I’m actually currently a first-year university student, double-majoring in medicine and computer science. (Different from the US, In Taiwan, medical education begins at the undergraduate level, and one obtains a doctor’s license after completing the medical program.)

 I’ve still been struggling with a major decision: whether I should continue my double major in medicine or focus solely on computer science. In EA's community’s reasoning, medicine seems less relevant to priorities like AI safety or s-risks. However, one major advantage of studying medicine is financial stability. Before transformative AI arrives, I suspect that computer science jobs might become increasingly competitive, whereas doctors may still earn a stable income. Therefore, in an uncertain future, I’ve considered working as a doctor temporarily (perhaps for around 10-15 years), saving most of the earnings to reduce future financial pressure.

(Although, I’m aware that future AI progress could eventually automate much of medical/dentist work.)

Therefore, if it's really difficult to find EA jobs in non-EA companies, it would increase the argument of double majoring in medicine/dentist.

Some s-risks people may be afraid of informantion hazard of publicly answering this question, if that's the case, you can gmail carlosgpt500@gmail.com to privately answer this question 

The reason of thinking up this question (This is not directly related to the question so I put in common section here):

I'm currently an 18-year-old guy that's having hard time between double majoring on medicine and CS(computer science) and single major on CS.

One advantage of medicine is its high salary. In fact my parents think it's necessary to save retirement funds for like one million dollars, so they strongly advice me to do double major in medicine. Before, I thought: Is there need for retirement fund? I work for EA till my body can't physically afford, and after that, I think I can suicide. Because if you can't work anymore, what's the meaning of living? However, there's a flaw of this thinking, which is my question talking about.

So the prediction experts made are all pureb"subjective" predictions? I think there are some logical thinking/arguments or maybe like fermi estimation to explain how he estimates the number unless it's mostly intuition.

Thanks for your replying. I've read this, but it doesn't say the reason why we expect AI to keep growing at an explanatory speed. Though the computing speed (FLOPs) is accelerating like Moore's law, but does fast computing=AGI can do most things on earth better than humans?

I mean "ever", thanks for the question

Sorry, I tried to make different paragraphs in my writing, but it keeps omitting the spaces I made between each sentences automatically.