The real value of forecasting is in the moment you realise two people in the same room have forecasts 40% apart. That is where the benefit occurs.
Many of us would assume the benefit of forecasting techniques is simply to get better forecasts. The fact that it's the process itself that provides the most value was really interesting to me - thanks for this post.
I think the tone I wrote it in gave the impression that I was saying "I don't see how what they did is illegal" rather than "what did they do that was illegal". I try and avoid that kind of thing next time.
I asked this question on the EA Forum just because EA is why I'm interested in the story, and I trust the EA Forum to produce good discussion that gets to heart of what I'm interested in, compared to the only other place where I know I can ask a direct question, which is Reddit. Any implication that there was still a mystery to be figured out was accidental.
As for the half-baked takes - actually I don't think I gave any. None of what I said was an opinion it was simply an account of the easily findable facts.
As I mentioned in a different thread, I want to study both Maths and Economics because I don’t know whether I will want to go into stats stuff or policy stuff, but I now think that this is not as important as I thought it was.
Yeah my worry was that I don't know whether I wanted to go into stats stuff or policy, so I thought that if I just did Maths at Oxford I wouldn't gain enough information about which is a better fit for me to be able to make the switch into economics, which is possible but requires a commitment.
Having reconsidered, I think there are likely to be ways of learning which route I want to go down even if I don't go to a uni where I can study both, and the costs of doing this are likely to be outweighed by the benefit of attending Oxford, especially considering the responses this post has gotten.
(This means I am now unlikely to apply to American universities since I am able to attend a top uni in the UK, and the probability of getting accepted to an American one AND not Oxford is even lower [especially since the American assessment criteria suit me worse])
Sorry there's something really basic I don't get about Example 1. There is a good chance I am mistaken but I think this confusion will be shared by many so I think it's worth commenting.
Your point is that Scenario 1 is what they would come to if they each try to maximise their personal counterfactual impact. In your example, Alice and Bob are calculating their counterfactual impact in each scenario on the basis that the other person's decision is not affected by theirs. But if both are trying to maximise their personal counterfactual impact, then the other person's decision IS affected by theirs! So their calculations of counterfactual impact were wrong!
Each person can say to the other "I'll donate to P if you donate to P, otherwise I'll donate to Q/R" (because that is what would maximise their counterfactual impact). Each will then see that donating to P provides a counterfactual impact of 5 (utility of 15 is created rather than 10), while donating to Q/R gives a counterfactual impact of 10 (20 is created rather than 10). They will both donate to Q/R, not P like you suggest.
(You CAN make it so that they can't communicate and they each THINK that their decision doesn't affect the other's [even though it does], and this WOULD make the counterfactual impact in each scenario the same as the ones you give. BUT you would have to multiply those impacts by the probability that the other person would make the given choice, and then combine it with the situation where they don't... so it doesn't work the same and even then it would be an information issue rather than a problem with maximising counterfactual impact...)
Well I’m currently taking Economics A-level and I do find it really interesting so I can see myself pursuing economics in the future, but I don’t plan on it specifically. That’s why I thought it might be good to be able to do a bit of it to know whether to do it at masters? Maybe the A-level is enough though
Many of us would assume the benefit of forecasting techniques is simply to get better forecasts. The fact that it's the process itself that provides the most value was really interesting to me - thanks for this post.
Hi; as of now it still says they've received millions of dollars.
Fantastic! I’m glad to hear it’s still going :)
Hi, do you have an update on what's happening with this project? I've been waiting for a podcast exactly like this one!
Thanks, I appreciate the explanation.
I think the tone I wrote it in gave the impression that I was saying "I don't see how what they did is illegal" rather than "what did they do that was illegal". I try and avoid that kind of thing next time.
I asked this question on the EA Forum just because EA is why I'm interested in the story, and I trust the EA Forum to produce good discussion that gets to heart of what I'm interested in, compared to the only other place where I know I can ask a direct question, which is Reddit. Any implication that there was still a mystery to be figured out was accidental.
As for the half-baked takes - actually I don't think I gave any. None of what I said was an opinion it was simply an account of the easily findable facts.
As I mentioned in a different thread, I want to study both Maths and Economics because I don’t know whether I will want to go into stats stuff or policy stuff, but I now think that this is not as important as I thought it was.
Yeah my worry was that I don't know whether I wanted to go into stats stuff or policy, so I thought that if I just did Maths at Oxford I wouldn't gain enough information about which is a better fit for me to be able to make the switch into economics, which is possible but requires a commitment.
Having reconsidered, I think there are likely to be ways of learning which route I want to go down even if I don't go to a uni where I can study both, and the costs of doing this are likely to be outweighed by the benefit of attending Oxford, especially considering the responses this post has gotten.
(This means I am now unlikely to apply to American universities since I am able to attend a top uni in the UK, and the probability of getting accepted to an American one AND not Oxford is even lower [especially since the American assessment criteria suit me worse])
Sorry there's something really basic I don't get about Example 1. There is a good chance I am mistaken but I think this confusion will be shared by many so I think it's worth commenting.
Your point is that Scenario 1 is what they would come to if they each try to maximise their personal counterfactual impact. In your example, Alice and Bob are calculating their counterfactual impact in each scenario on the basis that the other person's decision is not affected by theirs. But if both are trying to maximise their personal counterfactual impact, then the other person's decision IS affected by theirs! So their calculations of counterfactual impact were wrong!
Each person can say to the other "I'll donate to P if you donate to P, otherwise I'll donate to Q/R" (because that is what would maximise their counterfactual impact). Each will then see that donating to P provides a counterfactual impact of 5 (utility of 15 is created rather than 10), while donating to Q/R gives a counterfactual impact of 10 (20 is created rather than 10). They will both donate to Q/R, not P like you suggest.
(You CAN make it so that they can't communicate and they each THINK that their decision doesn't affect the other's [even though it does], and this WOULD make the counterfactual impact in each scenario the same as the ones you give. BUT you would have to multiply those impacts by the probability that the other person would make the given choice, and then combine it with the situation where they don't... so it doesn't work the same and even then it would be an information issue rather than a problem with maximising counterfactual impact...)
Well I’m currently taking Economics A-level and I do find it really interesting so I can see myself pursuing economics in the future, but I don’t plan on it specifically. That’s why I thought it might be good to be able to do a bit of it to know whether to do it at masters? Maybe the A-level is enough though
Thanks!