Last year, I took part in crowdfunding a ventilator for intensive care for Covid-19 in Brazil. I believe it was a mistake - I'd better have donated to GD. Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but I learned from this experience that I underestimated relevant points:
a) I wanted to feel important;
b) I gave a great weight to the fact that EA and rationalist friends (people I usually trust) were doing it, too, but I neglected that we were probably being affected by the same biases;
c) None of us had previous experience in funding similar risky projects. However, we did analyze their credentials, and we had someone who understood ventilators and said that, though the project wasn't as impactful as we first thought, it was likely still worth funding - because funding for research totally vanished in Brazil.
d) my direct interaction with the team asking for funds probably made me overestimate their case;
e) Everyone was doing similar projects back then. I took it as a sign that it was a good idea. I was so wrong: I didn't realize the context had changed - the area got way less neglected, it attracted people whose projects were in other areas, or that usually wouldn't be worth funding, and the low-hanging fruit was already being picked by large donors.
My point is that I failed to update my priors. If someone shows up today talking about how they can save thousands of lives in the next pandemic by lowering the costs of this particular medical procedure, they probably have thought about it deeply (possibly passionately) and put some skin in the game; they might be overestimating the general risk, but not so much their ability to deliver the product (before others do). If they do this after the pandemic started, they are (if not a total maverick) likely someone who used to do something else which is not being funded anymore because everyone is focused on the current catastrophe.
Concluding, though I still think there are impactful "weird things" that only I can fund out there, they are mixed with lots of bad fruits, and I'm rarely particularly skilled in telling the difference - actually, I realize that I might be particularly bad at doing so when some emotions get involved. I became an EA, and routinely check this Forum, not because I hope someday to be as impactful as Dustin Moskovitz, but because I can share this epistemic burden with others - or just outsource it to an expert I might trust.
A not-so-weird thing I’m considering to fund – except this is not EA at all.
I’ve recently read this piece (in Portuguese – from a very respected magazine) about this Haitian refugee who has a crowdfunding campaign to bring her children to Brazil. I also checked her bio in other media outlets.
She still needs around U$ 3,000 – roughly what AMF would need to save an additional life, in some calculations[1]. But life expectancy in Haiti is 64y, and its HDI is .51 – against 75.8y and HDI of .74 in Brazil; besides, it’s particularly higher in Porto Alegre (where she lives), I have to take into account the additional welfare of reuniting a family (kids without a mother probably don’t fare well in Haiti[2]), so I think that moving her kids would entail no less than 30 additional expected QALY, which I consider roughly equivalent to what people mean when they say “AMF saves a life for $3k.” Thus, helping this woman seems to be, according to this back of the envelope calculation, as worthy as donating to AMF in the long run.
Except that I found many other similar crowdfunding pages (e.g., here, here, here, here…) with similar projects which stalled before filling 30% of their budget. What drove my attention to J., instead of the others, is that the magazine made her case salient and confirmed it’s legit - if not for that, I’d be indifferent between helping her or any other Haitian in a similar situation. But it turns out that none of these immigrants will achieve their goals this way: they are competing for scarce resources, but would be better-off if they could coordinate, pool their donations and establish a procedure (maybe a lottery) to decide who is going to get their kids back.
Donating to J. is not scalable; I’d prefer to help solve this coordination problem. I am still thinking about how. On the other hand, I estimate I spent about three additional hours thinking about this problem – which I wouldn’t have done if I’d just donated to an EA charity.
[1] I am using a very old and not super high quality source, but I am not pretending this is an accurate CBA.
[2] On the other hand, they've already survived earlyinfancy, so this difference in life expectancy shouldn't be that large. But I am not going to compare mortality tables after all this.