The Value of a Statistical Life is not a good metric

TLDR: The VSL (Value of a Statistical Life) is often cited in Existential Risk Discussions. It's not a good metric because it's both used in specific circumstances and used inconsistently.

Often cited in discussions about existential risk is the US Government's stated Value of a Statistical Life (VSL): somewhere in the ballpark of $10 million. For instance, Carl Shulman argues that even if longtermism doesn't hold, reducing extinction of all humans alive today is still cost-effective when compared to this metric^[1]. Will MacAskill recently argued in the Existential Risk symposium that this metric reflected 'how much latent desire there is' to reduce global catastrophic risk.

However, this number is mainly used to remove accountability for organisations in certain types of projects (although I'm not an expert on this).

For example, in infrastructure projects like roads, if it causes accidents, the government looks really bad for not prepping for it. This has no upper limit, so if the government wanted to do anything which adds risks to civilians, it would be impossible cost-wise. This number is like a theoretical cap for the government to say 'Okay we've done our bit'.

The government does spend this amount in certain areas, but the value is much lower almost everywhere else. For instance, because plane crashes are a major deal for the public, the Department of Transport values human life at (and likely spends close to) $13.2 million per reduced death^[2]. Meanwhile, the average fine for a workplace death is $12,000, more than 1000x less^[3].

In short, this metric is fun to use - I've been guilty of it myself - but it's not reflective at all of government spending and certainly not citizen attitudes towards the value of a life.

1. ^{^}

   ‘Carl Shulman on the Common-Sense Case for Existential Risk Work and Its Practical Implications’. n.d. 80,000 Hours. Accessed 18 March 2025. https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/carl-shulman-common-sense-case-existential-risks/.

2. ^{^}

   ‘Departmental Guidance on Valuation of a Statistical Life in Economic Analysis | US Department of Transportation’. n.d. Accessed 18 March 2025. https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/transportation-policy/revised-departmental-guidance-on-valuation-of-a-statistical-life-in-economic-analysis.

3. ^{^}

   ‘Death on the Job: The Toll of Neglect, 2023 | AFL-CIO’. 2023. 25 April 2023. https://aflcio.org/reports/death-job-toll-neglect-2023