A preliminary estimate, and a request for better ones.
Summary
I believe the standard literature estimates for the number of DALYs attributable to a case of stunting are too low, largely because they don’t account for the long term effects. This means that childhood nutritional interventions that reduce the prevalence of stunting may be substantially more cost-effective than previously believed.
Epistemic status
Exploratory and back-o...
I’ve been feeling pretty shaken since the METR report about the Hugging Face incident came out last week. Over the weekend, I wrote up some thoughts on how lonely the AI situation sometimes feels to me. It’s more personal than what I’d usually share publicly, but I thought I’d post it here in case it resonates with anyone else.
I’m very grateful to the man...
TL;DR: Kairos has raised $50 million from Coefficient Giving for two years of funding, one of the largest commitments they’ve made towards AI safety fieldbuilding to date. We’re using this to make an ambitious push for growing Kairos, broadening our portfolio of talent infrastructure projects and incubating new organizations. We’ve doubled in size in the last six mon...
Reflection on a university discussion about the future and safety of AI:
Background: ~20 people, 2 assistant professors, other BSc and MSc level students of AI/ML at Charles University
One of the professors sent us the FLI letter, Petition by LAION (in my view accelerationist and insufficiently addressing issues raised by the AI x-risk community), and On the Dangers of Stochastic Parrots by Bender et al.. Supplemental materials were criticisms of longtermism (by Torres and Thorn).
First we gave reasons for and against each petition. The professor in my view framed it that FLI is a suspicious organization (because of longtermist ties), x-risk issues are on the same level or less important than issues raised in Stochastic Parrots (bias, environmental concerns), and that academics support LAION more.
In spite of the framing, after a 1 hour discussion, more than a half of the students were convinced that AI x-risk is a serious issue and rejected issues from stochastic parrots being as important.
No one changed their mind about LAION.
One student (he was in a group discussion with me) changed his mind to be in favor of the FLI letter.
I showed the professors the AI impacts survey and they found it interesting.
Some people seemed interested in the Lex Fridman with Eliezer Yudkowsky podcast.
I'm curious what they thought of Torres?
Almost none of the students read it (it wasn't required, and seemed a bit out of place in the context of the other materials).
One of the professors seemed on board of Torres' arguments such as that longtermists will justify anything (especially interests of "the rich") by arguing for bogus probabilities and quantities of future people.
(in the end we exchanged a few words about how it's funny that our twitter bubbles lead us to think that opposite things are the consensus)