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(Cross-posted from Twitter, and therefore optimized somewhat for simplicity.)
Recent discussions of AI x-risk in places like Twitter tend to focus on "are you in the Rightthink Tribe, or the Wrongthink Tribe?". Are you a doomer? An accelerationist? An EA? A techno-optimist?
I'm pretty sure these discussions would go way better if the discussion looked less like that. More concrete claims, details, and probabilities; fewer vague slogans and vague expressions of certainty.
As a start, I made this image (also available as a Google Drawing):
(Added: Web version made by Tetraspace.)
I obviously left out lots of other important and interesting questions, but I think this is OK as a conversation-starter. I've encouraged Twitter regulars to share their own versions of this image, or similar images, as a nucleus for conversation (and a way to directly clarify what people's actual views are, beyond the stereotypes and slogans).
If you want to see a filled-out example, here's mine (though you may not want to look if you prefer to give answers that are less anchored): Google Drawing link.
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