A preliminary estimate, and a request for better ones.
Summary
I believe the standard literature estimates for the number of DALYs attributable to a case of stunting are too low, largely because they don’t account for the long term effects. This means that childhood nutritional interventions that reduce the prevalence of stunting may be substantially more cost-effective than previously believed.
Epistemic status
Exploratory and back-o...
Note: This post was crossposted from Planned Obsolescence by the Forum team, with the author's permission. The author may not see or respond to comments on this post.
Subtitle: It’s a major warning shot, and might be the last one we get
All opinions are my personal view, and don’t represent my employer or fellow investigators.
This week, METR and Redwood Research published...
Overview
This post summarizes a new preprint on alternative proteins from the Humane and Sustainable Food Lab: New alternatives, same orders. We investigated 19...
@Austin and I made a nice visualization for election-conditioned prediction markets!
https://policypredictions.com/ -- see how the markets think the world will look under Trump vs Harris
There's an AI market on there just for EAs :)
How about adding this one?
https://manifold.markets/Siebe/if-trump-is-elected-will-the-us-sti
ooh that's an interesting one, hadn't seen it yet. if they make it real money I'll totally add it! (otherwise the manipulation incentive vastly outweighs the incentive to correct it)