They could find someone who agrees with Tyler, work out some measurement for the influence EA has on the world, and bet against each other on where that measurement will be several years or decades down the line.

Plausible influence measures include:

• The amount of money moved to EA-aligned charities
• The number of people who browse the forum
• The number of federal politicians &/or billionaires who subscribe to EA ideas
• Google trends data
• The number of people who know about EA
• The number of people who buy Doing Good Better
• The number of charities who use the SNT framework to argue for more funding on their home-pages
• The number of EA-aligned charities
• ...