[Initially posted on the Oxford Biosecurity Group blog, and now cross-posted as I was made aware that it may reach a wider audience this way. Please link people to the original blog version if sharing this post.]
Biosecurity, broadly, refers to ways to prevent the introduction and spread of diseases, and it is one of the most important and pressing global challenges. What are some reasons that you should work on biosecurity?
[1] The potential harm is catastrophic. Pandemics have caused a large death toll throughout history. The Black Death is estimated to have wiped out at least a third of the European population. Smallpox killed approximately 300 million people in the 20th century alone before its eradication in 1980. The COVID-19 pandemic caused over 7 million confirmed deaths globally, but the excess deaths compared to a typical year may be 2-5x this. Since then, there have been outbreaks of mpox and H5N1, with concerns about the pandemic risk of these pathogens. It has been estimated that there is an approximately 2% risk of a COVID-like pandemic occurring in a given year, and future pandemics may be even worse.
[2] The risks are increasing. The frequency of outbreaks from zoonotic spillover events (spread from animals to people) has increased in recent decades, and this is predicted to increase further due to factors such as climate change. Emerging technologies such as advances in synthetic biology and AI also increase biosecurity risk, as such research can be dual-use and may be misused by bad actors. While the development or use of biological weapons by states and terrorists is not new, advances in technologies mean that a greater number of people may have the capability to do harm. For example, recent AI models are outperforming PhD virologists in solving nuanced biological problems, and this technology is advancing rapidly. This harm may also be accidental, through accidental release or research leading to unexpected risks. For example, recently there has been a call to stop research on mirror life, including mirror bacteria, due to an ‘unprecedented risk’ to life on Earth if these bacteria were to be created.
[3] The risks can be reduced. There are many things that can be done to prevent, detect, and respond to pandemics and reduce biosecurity risks. For example, advances in and use of air disinfection and filtration technologies may prevent or reduce the indoor spread of pandemics, and seasonal influenza in a typical year. Advances in and strategic positioning of disease surveillance may be able to detect a potential pandemic when there are only a few cases globally. The first COVID-19 vaccine candidate was designed within 2 days of the genetic sequence being published, and the 100 Days Mission aims to create a vaccine for a new virus within 100 days - a technical, logistical and regulatory challenge. Work by and coordination between various stakeholders can reduce risks from emerging technologies while maintaining benefits. Examples include screening DNA synthesis customers and orders for dangerous sequences, and managed access frameworks for certain tools and data. However, despite promising approaches, significant challenges remain in development and implementation.
[4] More people are needed. Pandemics have often gone from panic to neglect, biosecurity remains neglected given the scale of the issue, and often planning and funding availability do not focus on the most extreme risks. More work needs to be done, and more people from a range of backgrounds are needed. This includes people with experience in policy, communications and operations, and entrepreneurs to start or scale impactful projects.
You can have a large, global impact working on biosecurity. If this resonates with you, consider how your skills and interests might contribute to biosecurity work. You may find this list of resources useful, and if you are interested in hands-on experience, we run research projects that help people gain skills and connections in the field.
