I was born at the end of the cold war, unaware of the danger we were emerging from. Duck and cover drills (as if those could protect schoolchildren from a nuclear blast) were a curiosity of the past.
The farmer-poet Wendell Berry, who wrote about the dread of nuclear war, died recently. From his 1968 “The peace of wild things”:
When despair for the world grows in me
and I wake in the night at the least...
Previously: GiveWell raised less than its 10th percentile forecast in 2023 · GiveWell fundraising up 17% in 2024
GiveWell has published its...
> Re: "Extrapolating GPT-N performance" and "Revisiting ‘Is AI Progress Impossible To Predict?’" sections of google doc
Read Section 5.6 titled "The Limit of the Predictability of Scaling Behavior" of "Broken Neural Scaling Laws" paper:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.14891v4