I recently gave a presentation and Q&A on “Nuclear risk research, forecasting, and impact”, which you can now watch the video of. The slides can be found here

This event was co-organised by Metaculus, and was related to the Nuclear Risk Tournament Metaculus and I (as part of my work with Rethink Priorities) have put together. 

This was the event description (from here): 

“How likely is nuclear conflict in the near- and long-term? What risk does nuclear conflict pose for extreme outcomes that could lead to existential catastrophe? This event is an opportunity to learn about the research and the aggregated community forecasting meant to increase our understanding on these critical questions and to help us reduce their associated risks.

Speaker Michael Aird's work with Rethink Priorities is aimed at informing funders, policymakers, researchers, and other actors regarding the extent to which they should prioritize reducing risks from nuclear weapons, as well as the most effective ways to mitigate these risks.

This event will consist of a short presentation on:

  • Michael's current research
  • How forecasts in the Nuclear Risk forecasting tournament will inform and be incorporated into his research
  • How he expects this to contribute to a more flourishing near- and long-term future

The presentation will be followed by a longer Q&A session that could touch on topics like:

  • How forecasting could be used more frequently and effectively in research and policymaking
  • The importance and potential limitations of forecasting on long-range or catastrophe-related questions”

Finally: If you find the above video/description interesting, you might also be interested in my earlier 6.5 minute talk on The importance and challenges of estimating existential risk.




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