Full relevant article here: 20 years to give away virtually all my wealth | Bill Gates
Bill Gates recently shared the update that:
I will give away virtually all my wealth through the Gates Foundation over the next 20 years to the cause of saving and improving lives around the world. And on December 31, 2045, the foundation will close its doors permanently.
Which translates to roughly double the spending in the next 20 years, compared to the previous 25 years:
During the first 25 years of the Gates Foundation ... we gave away more than $100 billion. Over the next two decades, we will double our giving. The exact amount will depend on the markets and inflation, but I expect the foundation will spend more than $200 billion between now and 2045.
How, if at all, does this announcement shift the expected funding dynamics for Global Health and other EA-aligned causes and charities?
My uninformed initial speculations:
- This could be a minor change, proportional to governmental spending.
- The update averages out to ~$10Bn/year for The Gates Foundation (~$6Bn/year increase), compared to (example) ~£9.2Bn expected spending for the UK Government in 2027.
- UK Government numbers source: UK to reduce aid to 0.3% of gross national income from 2027
- This seems like The Gates Foundation is on the same OOM spending as a single country, but many countries give ODA.
- Government spending seems quite dispersed, for example including spend on refugees in the UK and assistance to Ukraine.
- The update averages out to ~$10Bn/year for The Gates Foundation (~$6Bn/year increase), compared to (example) ~£9.2Bn expected spending for the UK Government in 2027.
- This could have a big impact on certain areas, for example malaria prevention.
- A quick scan of the Foundation website has several malaria-relevant articles, suggesting a priority in this area: Saving lives, ending disease, improving health | Bill Gates
- This could affect other funder behaviour, which may or may not lead to more overall funding.
- For example, it could result in more donations to health-focussed charities, and charities should look to take advantage of this.
- For contrasting example, other major health funders (eg OpenPhil), might reallocate budgets away from Global Health towards other program areas, meaning non-health charities are best placed to take advantage.
- It might have basically no impact for EA-aligned causes and groups.
- I'm not really sure how 'effectiveness-focussed' the Gates Foundation is, so the funding change might have no real impact for EA groups.
Would really appreciate better-informed forecasts on what this might change!