Don't Let Other Global Catastrophic Risks Fall Behind: Support ORCG in 2024

Observatorio de Riesgos Catastróficos Globales (ORCG) is dedicated to safeguarding humanity's future by addressing the full spectrum of global catastrophic risks. This includes crucial work in Artificial Intelligence, where we have secured funding and achieved significant results in 2024, with even greater impact expected in 2025. You can explore our key AI publications in the (Appendix). However, while AI risk is a critical concern, other urgent threats demand our attention, and these areas are currently facing significant funding challenges. In 2024 and 2025, ORCG needs your support to continue tackling these neglected yet crucial areas:

• Pandemic preparedness: The COVID-19 pandemic exposed deep vulnerabilities in our global systems. We need to learn from this crisis and invest in robust mechanisms for recovery and future preparedness. This includes strengthening healthcare infrastructure, developing equitable vaccine distribution strategies, and addressing the long-term social and economic consequences of pandemics.
• Food Security During ASRS: Agricultural disruptions from abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios (ASRS), such as volcanic eruptions or nuclear winter, pose a significant threat to global food security. ORCG advocates for innovative solutions to ensure food availability during these crises, including alternative food sources and resilient agricultural practices.
• All-Hazards Risk Management: Beyond specific threats, we need to enhance our overall capacity to identify, assess, and manage global catastrophic risks. This involves developing better risk assessment methodologies, fostering international cooperation, and integrating risk considerations into policymaking.

Without your support, it is very likely that most projects we want to do in these three areas during 2025 will not be able to move forward.

Why Support ORCG in 2024-2025?

• Balanced Approach: While AI risk is a critical concern, focusing solely on one area leaves us vulnerable to other potentially devastating threats. ORCG maintains a balanced portfolio of research and advocacy, ensuring that no critical risk is neglected.
• Filling the Gap: The current funding boom for AI safety is commendable, but it risks overshadowing other equally important areas. Your donation to ORCG will directly support research and initiatives in pandemic reparation, food security during ASRS, and risk management improvement – areas currently underfunded.
• Expertise and Impact: ORCG Is supported by a dedicated team of professionals, leverages a network of experts, and collaborates with key stakeholders to produce impactful research and policy recommendations. We are committed to translating our findings into concrete actions that enhance global resilience. Our track record speaks for itself: In 2024, we have already produced a range of impactful publications across our key focus areas (see appendix).
• Transparency and Accountability: ORCG adheres to the highest standards of transparency and accountability. We regularly publish our research findings, share our progress, and engage with the community to ensure our work remains relevant and impactful.

How Your Donation Will Make a Difference:

Your contribution will directly fund critical projects for 2025 in our key focus areas:

1. Pandemic preparedness:

• Analysis of hospital response protocols during COVID-19 in conjunction with IMSS Mexico (25K to 40K): This project will identify best practices and areas for improvement in hospital preparedness for future pandemics, leading to updated protocols and training materials, and is supported by CBIN, the organization responsible for managing IMSS laboratories and clinics in northeastern Mexico."
• Working paper for the Biological Weapons Convention on training needs (35K to 60K): Based on our regional needs assessment report, this paper will outline specific training needs and recommendations for the Biological Weapons Convention to strengthen global capacity for preventing and responding to biological threats.
• Pandemic Preparedness in North American Trade Agreement (USMCA): A Regional Approach to Capacity Building and Resource Sharing (25K to 40K): This report is a continuation of our article “Exploring the New North American Trade Agreement: Focus on Future Pandemic Preparedness in Mexico.“ will further explore the agreement's implications for pandemic preparedness in Mexico and identify transferable lessons for other countries in the region.

2. Food Security in Case of ASRS (volcanic/nuclear winter):

• Report on food security in case of ASRS in Brazil (40K to 60K): This report will analyze Brazil's vulnerabilities and potential solutions for maintaining food security during a prolonged period of reduced sunlight, providing valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders. Brazil could be a fundamental player for maintaining food security in Latin America during a nuclear or volcanic winter, potentially saving hundreds of millions of lives and increasing the chances of maintaining civilizational stability in the region post-catastrophe.
• Tabletop exercise with Argentinian stakeholders for ASRS preparation (55K to 85K): This interactive exercise will bring together key decision-makers in Argentina to simulate an ASRS scenario, enhancing their understanding of the challenges and facilitating the development of effective response strategies. Based on our report published in Argentina. This project aims to increase the readiness of government officers to respond rapidly and effectively in case of an ASRS, and the final exercise could be adapted to other countries and regions for the same purposes.

3. Improving Risk Management Systems:

Handbook for the implementation of the OECD Emerging Risks Strategy (100K to 150K): Global catastrophic risks (GCRs) demand proactive and coordinated responses from governments worldwide. This practical guide will provide step-by-step instructions and best practices for implementing the OECD's framework for managing emerging risks, specifically tailored to the unique challenges of GCRs. By clarifying roles, responsibilities, and effective strategies, this handbook will empower governments to:

• Enhance risk identification and assessment: Improve the ability to identify and assess potential GCRs, including those that are complex, uncertain, and transboundary.
• Strengthen preparedness and prevention: Develop and implement effective prevention and preparedness measures to mitigate the impact of GCRs.
• Improve coordination and collaboration: Foster collaboration and information sharing among government agencies, international organizations, and other stakeholders.
• Build resilience and response capabilities: Enhance capacity to respond effectively to GCR events and recover quickly from their impacts.

This handbook will be a valuable resource for policymakers and practitioners working to address GCRs, ultimately contributing to a safer and more resilient future for all.

Join us in building a safer and more resilient future. Your contribution to ORCG will help us address the full spectrum of global catastrophic risks and ensure that humanity is prepared for the challenges that lie ahead.

Donate to ORCG today and help us protect humanity's future.

In addition to financial contributions, you can support ORCG by:

• Spreading the word: Share this article and our website (https://orcg.info) with your networks.
• If you are an expert interested in our work: you can contribute by sending suggestions, providing feedback, and sharing academic and funding opportunities with us, among others ([email protected]).
• Connecting us with potential partners: Introduce us to individuals or organizations who can support our work.

Together, we can build a safer future for all.

Appendix

Our 2024 Impact: Key Publications

This year, ORCG has already produced a range of impactful publications across our key focus areas:

1. Artificial Intelligence:

• Retrospective of our contribution to the European Union AI Act: This analysis details ORCG's involvement in shaping the EU's landmark legislation on artificial intelligence.
• Academic article "Systematic Review of Risk Taxonomies Associated with Artificial Intelligence": This comprehensive review examines different approaches to classifying and assessing AI risks, providing valuable insights for researchers and policymakers.
• Addressing the Challenges of Advanced AI: Review of Managing Extreme AI Risks Amid Rapid Progress: This review examines key strategies for mitigating the risks posed by increasingly powerful AI systems.
• Infographics: European Union Artificial Intelligence Act: These infographics provide a clear and accessible overview of the EU's AI Act, highlighting its key provisions and implications.
• Report Computing for Good: The Potential of European Supercomputers for AI Research and Development: This report explores how high-performance computing can accelerate progress in AI while ensuring its safe and beneficial development.
• Progress in the Regulation of Artificial Intelligence in Latin America: This analysis provides an update on AI governance developments in Latin America, highlighting key trends and challenges.

2. Pandemic Preparedness:

• Article "Research Priorities According to the World Health Organization (WHO) for Intelligence on Pandemics, Epidemics, and Bacterial Pathogens": This report identifies key research areas that can inform more effective pandemic preparedness and response strategies.
• Article "Exploration of the New North American Trade Agreement: Focus on Preparing for Future Pandemics in Mexico": This article examines the trade agreement's implications for pandemic preparedness in Mexico, offering valuable insights for regional cooperation.
• Note: "The Urgency of Improving Pandemic Surveillance and Response": This concise analysis highlights the need for strengthened global systems for detecting and responding to emerging infectious disease threats.
• Report “Mapping Regional Needs in Biosafety, Biosecurity, and Public Health” resulting from a survey process with different stakeholders in the region (full report available November 15th).

3. Food Security During ASRS:

• Policy Recommendation: "Agricultural Resilience in Latin America: Facing Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenarios": This policy brief outlines strategies for enhancing agricultural resilience in Latin America to mitigate the impacts of abrupt sunlight reduction events.
• Academic Article "Resilient Food Solutions to Avoid Mass Starvation During a Nuclear Winter in Argentina": This research explores potential food sources and production methods that could help ensure food security in Argentina during a nuclear winter scenario.

4. Improving Risk Management Systems:

• New Prologue for the Report "Latin America and Global Catastrophic Risks: Transforming Risk Management" Written by Elders Member and Former President Ernesto Zedillo: This updated report, with a foreword by a respected global leader, provides a comprehensive analysis of global catastrophic risks facing Latin America and proposes strategies for enhanced risk management.