This post presents the executive summary from Giving What We Can’s impact evaluation for 2025. At the end of this post we share links to more information, including the full report and...
I used AI to fix transcription errors, rerrarange the ideas, and suggest tweaks to the title and some sentences.
Three of the most exciting projects to come out of EA in recent years are, in a vague sense, CEA spinouts:
* Kairos is directly a spinout of CEA and now handles most support for university AI safety groups. Basically everyone I've found who knows them is really excited about what they do
* NEST is an opinionated ideas-fi...
2024 has been a year of significant growth and consolidation for Observatorio de Riesgos Catastróficos Globales (ORCG), marked by impactful advancements across our four core workstreams. We've expanded our research initiatives and strengthened international collaborations, solidifying our role as a leading voice in understanding and mitigating catastrophic risks.
From the outset, ORCG has championed proactive and collaborative approaches to navigating the complex challenges of potential global catastrophes. This commitment fueled a diverse range of activities in 2024, with highlights including:
Pandemic Preparedness: We led a regional mapping effort to assess biosafety and biosecurity needs in Latin America. This resulted in research notes and a report that will be included in the Global Research Agenda for Evidence-Based Biosafety, helping to redirect efforts and resources for effective pandemic management in Latin America.
Improvement in Risk Management Systems: We published a new edition of our flagship report, Latin America and Global Catastrophic Risks, featuring a prologue by former Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo, a member of The Elders. This generated significant media attention for ORCG. We are also developing a handbook for implementing the OECD's framework on emerging critical risks.
These endeavors have not only deepened our understanding of global risks but also fostered crucial partnerships with organizations and experts worldwide. We've collaborated with leading institutions and initiatives such as ALLFED, Global Shield, CSER, GCRI, CLTR, and AMexBio. Furthermore, by participating in several working groups of the EU GPAI Code of Practice, we've engaged with several civil society organizations in the field of AI safety and governance. Our work has also involved stakeholder engagement with OECD, EuroHPC, OEI, AESIA, IMSS, UNAM, and UANL. We are working on defining collaborative projects across our workstreams with some of these institutions, starting in 2025. We invite you to stay tuned for our updates next year.
In this recap, we'll delve into the key activities and accomplishments that have shaped ORCG's 2024 journey. We'll explore the impact of our research, the progress made in our key programs, and the valuable connections we've forged. Join us as we review our milestones—especially our key products—that have defined this chapter in our ongoing commitment to safeguarding humanity's future.
Looking ahead, securing comprehensive funding remains a critical challenge. While our AI initiatives are funded through 2025, other vital areas face resource limitations that could jeopardize our continued progress. We invite you to partner with us by donating to help sustain our work across all areas of our mission.
“Mapping Regional Needs in Biosafety, Biosecurity, and Public Health” This project mapped biosafety, biosecurity, and public health needs in Latin America. Surveys of professionals in 9 countries revealed top priorities: training programs and stronger regulatory frameworks. Key challenges include a lack of funding, government support, and ongoing training. Recommendations focus on competency-based training, international collaboration, and increased investment in biosafety and biosecurity infrastructure.
ORCG in press
How to avoid the next global catastrophe, Opinion article written for the Planeta Futuro section of major Spanish newspaper El País, which highlights that governments and multilateral organizations must prepare for possible future pandemics or monitor potential AI risks, among other GCRs.
The EU AI Act: A pioneering effort to regulate frontier AI? This paper, published in IberamIA journal, examines the EU AI Act, the first attempt to regulate frontier models. It concludes the Parliament’s draft was a good step toward adequately addressing the risks posed by these models, though some of its provisions were insufficiently defined in some areas and lacking in others. The final version of the Act improved in many of the aspects outlined.
"Systematic Review of Risk Taxonomies Associated with Artificial Intelligence": This article systematically reviewed 36 studies on AI risks, resulting in a taxonomy of threats and risk vectors. Our research found a need to consider emerging risks, bridge gaps between present and future harms, and further explore the potential pathways to an AI catastrophe
"Resilient Food Solutions to Avoid Mass Starvation During a Nuclear Winter in Argentina":This research explores potential food sources and production methods that could help ensure food security in Argentina during a nuclear winter scenario, describing how timely food system adaptation could flip a situation of national famine to a situation in which the country could not only feed itself but also continue to make significant exports to neighbors.
“The Securitization of Artificial Intelligence: An Analysis of its Drivers and Consequences”; submitted to Revista de Estudios Sociales by Universidad de los Andes. This article analyzes how the US is framing AI as a national security issue, revealing tensions between politicization and securitization, national and global security concerns, and threat-based versus risk-based approaches. It argues that effective AI governance requires balancing national interests with global security, favoring a risk-based approach that acknowledges uncertainties and promotes multilateral solutions instead of focusing solely on threats and nationalistic competition.
“Training and Education: What are the essential elements necessary for biosafety and biosecurity training programs for researchers and professionals?”, in submission process. To address the needs and challenges identified by Latin American researchers and professionals, effective biosafety and biosecurity training programs must prioritize formalized competency-based training, continuous professional development, accessibility, practical application, and intersectoral collaboration. By incorporating these elements, training programs can empower individuals to mitigate biological risks, foster responsible conduct, and strengthen regional biosecurity and public health.
Progress in the Regulation of Artificial Intelligence in Latin America: This analysis provides an update on AI governance developments in Latin America, highlighting key trends (Risk-based approach and international influence) and challenges (Implementing the Risk-based Approach and Creating Strong Institutions)
"The Urgency of Improving Pandemic Surveillance and Response":This concise analysis highlights the need for strengthened global systems for detecting and responding to emerging infectious disease threats. In conclusion, pandemic preparedness requires a comprehensive strategy that combines advanced technologies, strengthened public health infrastructure, and international collaboration.
“On the global importance of Latin America in AI governance”: This article argues Latin America could gain global importance in AI governance since it might (1) attract compute providers, (2) leverage its strong diplomatic tradition, (3) experience the emergence of societal-scale risks, (4) offer a strong pool of technical talent, and (5) enact impactful regulation. Each element opens up several possible implications and interventions to increase Latin America’s contribution to safe and beneficial AI.
Global Research Agenda for Evidence-Based Biosafety" Buenos Aires.
Join us in building a safer and more resilient future. Your contribution to ORCG will help us address the full spectrum of global catastrophic risks and ensure that humanity is prepared for the challenges that lie ahead.
Donate to ORCG today and help us protect humanity's future. Read here about our current plans.
In addition to financial contributions, you can support ORCG by:
Spreading the word: Share this Recap and our website (https://orcg.info) with your networks.
If you are an expert interested in our work: you can contribute by sending suggestions, providing feedback, and sharing academic and funding opportunities with us, among others ([email protected]).
Connecting us with potential partners: Introduce us to individuals or organizations who can support our work.
