Note: This was originally posted as a shortform with the first 8 points, and I added more based on the replies to that shortform.
- Newer EAs have worse takes on average, because the current processes of recruitment and outreach produce a worse distribution than the old ones
- Newer EAs are too junior to have good takes yet. It's just that the growth rate has increased so there's a higher proportion of them.
- People who have better thoughts get hired at EA orgs [edit: or have other better things to do] and are too busy to post. There is anticorrelation between the amount of time someone has to post on EA Forum and the expected quality of their post.
- Controversial content, rather than good content, gets the most engagement.
- Although we want more object-level discussion, everyone can weigh in on meta/community stuff, whereas they only know about their own cause areas. Therefore community content, especially shallow criticism, gets upvoted more. There could be a similar effect for posts by well-known EA figures.
- Contests like the criticism contest decrease average quality, because the type of person who would enter a contest to win money on average has worse takes than the type of person who has genuine deep criticism. There were 232 posts for the criticism contest, and 158 for the Cause Exploration Prizes, which combined is more top-level posts than the entire forum in any month except August 2022.
- EA Forum is turning into a place primarily optimized for people to feel welcome and talk about EA, rather than impact.
- All of this is exacerbated as the most careful and rational thinkers flee somewhere else, expecting that they won't get good quality engagement on EA Forum.
- (pointed out by Larks) "We also seem to get a fair number of posts that make basically the same point as an earlier article, but the author presumably either didn't read the earlier one or wanted to re-iterate it."
- (pointed out by ThomasW): "There are many people who have very high bars for how good something should be to post on the forum. Thus the forum becomes dominated by a few people (often people who aren't aware of or care about forum norms) who have much lower bars to posting."
- (pointed out by John_Maxwell) "Forum leadership encouraging people to be less intimidated and write more off-the-cuff posts -- see e.g. this or this."
- (pointed out by HaydnBelfield) "There is a lot more posted on the forum, mostly from newer/more junior people. It could well be the case that the average quality of posts has gone down. However, I'm not so sure that the quality of the best posts has gone down, and I'm not so sure that there are fewer of the best posts every month. Nevertheless, spotting the signal from the noise has become harder. "
- (I thought of this since last week) The appearance of quality decline is an illusion; people judge quality relative to their own understanding, which tends to increase. Thus even though quality stays constant, any given person's perception of quality decreases.
- (edited to add) Stagnation; EA Forum content is mostly drawn from the same distribution and many of the good thoughts have already been said. Contributing factors may be people not reading/building on previous posts (see also (9)), and lack of diversity in e.g. career specialties.
"Quality of person" sounds bad to me too. I also find it weird that someone already gave the same feedback on the shortform and the OP didn't change it.
The other wordings seem fine to me. I understand that not everyone would want to phrase things that way, but we need some kind of language to express differences in quality of people's contributions. Less direct wordings wouldn't be, in my opinion, obviously better. Maybe they come across as kinder, but the sort of rephrasings I'm now envisioning can easily seem a bit fake/artificial in the sense that it's clear to anyone what's being communicated. If someone thought my "takes" were bad, I'd rather they tell me that in clear language instead of saying something that sounds stilted and has me infer that they also don't expect me to be capable of hearing criticism.
(I might feel differently in a context where I care a lot about what others think of me as a person, like if I was among friends or roomates. By contrast, most people on the EA forums are "loose acquaintances" in a context that's more about "figuring things out" or "getting things done" than it's about being together in a community. In that context, friendliness and respect still remain important, but it isn't per se unfriendly [and sometimes it's even a positive mark of respect] to say things one considers to be true and important.)
Based on the OP's own beliefs, they don't primarily "want the distribution of styles and opinions to be as close as possible to that of people already employed by EA organisations." The OP's view is "competence differences exist and paying attention to them is important for making the world better." (I think this view is obviously correct.) Therefore, the driver in their hypothesis about people working at EA orgs was obviously an assumption like "EA orgs that try to that try to hire the best candidates succeed more often than average."Somehow, you make it sound like the OP has some kind of partiality bias or anti-diversity stance when all they did was voice a hypothesis that makes sense on the view "competence differences exist and paying attention to them is important for making the world better." I think that's super unfair.