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147
BLUF:
* To determine whether AI is ‘improving exponentially’, ‘hitting the wall’, or any other claim which involves a quantity or magnitude (e.g. ‘This model was a big leap/small increment’). We need a good y-axis: an interval scale of AI capability which means +1 unit always represents the same degree of ‘how much better’, in the same way +1 degree Celsius is always the same amount of ‘how much hotter’.
* Yet there is no good y-axis for AI capability. All our...
AFAIK research suggests that people are terrible at predicting what they would enjoy. (Check 80k for this). But personal fit is a crucial thing, once you actually tried (seriously and with being as open as you can) and it does not feel right, you should move on and try something else. After a few diverse “samples” you should get a rough idea of your options and decide what to stick with.