Metaculus now predicts that the first AGI[1] will become publicly known in 2036. This is a massive update - 6 years faster than previous estimates. I expect this update is based on recent papers[2]. It suggests that it is important to be prepared for short timelines, such as by accelerating alignment efforts in so far as this is possible.
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Some people may feel that the criteria listed aren’t quite what is typically meant by AGI and they have a point. At the same time, I expect this is the result of some objective criteria being needed for this kinds of competitions. In any case, if there was an AI that achieved this bar, then the implications of this would surely be immense.
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I note that in November 2020, the Metaculus community's prediction was that AGI would be arriving even sooner (2032, versus the current 2036 prediction). So if we're taking the Metaculus prediction seriously, we also want to understand things why the forecasters on Metaculus have longer timelines now than they did a year and a half ago.
I note that 60 extra forecasters joined in forecasting over the last few days, representing about a 20% increase in the forecaster population for this question.
This makes me hypothesize that the recent drop in forecasted timeline is due to a flood of attention on this question due to hype from the papers and the associated panic on LW and signal-boosting from SlateStarCodex. Perhaps the perspectives of those forecasters represent a thoughtful update in response to those publications. Or perhaps it represents panic and following the crowd. Since this is a long-term forecast, with no financial incentives, on a charged question with in-group signaling relevance, I frankly just don't know what to think.