A preliminary estimate, and a request for better ones.
Summary
I believe the standard literature estimates for the number of DALYs attributable to a case of stunting are too low, largely because they don’t account for the long term effects. This means that childhood nutritional interventions that reduce the prevalence of stunting may be substantially more cost-effective than previously believed.
Epistemic status
Exploratory and back-o...
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Subtitle: It’s a major warning shot, and might be the last one we get
All opinions are my personal view, and don’t represent my employer or fellow investigators.
This week, METR and Redwood Research published...
TL;DR: Kairos has raised $50 million from Coefficient Giving for two years of funding, one of the largest commitments they’ve made towards AI safety fieldbuilding to date. We’re using this to make an ambitious push for growing Kairos, broadening our portfolio of talent infrastructure projects and incubating new organizations. We’ve doubled in size in the last six mon...
Some random thoughts on psychology and EA. We need to make some distinctions.
On the one hand you have a theory about suffering. CBT doesn't have a clear fixed theory, it updates given the evidence. Most refer to these evolutions as first wave (behaviorism) vs second wave (revolution of cognitions, Beck, 'typical' CBT) and third wave (mindfulness-based (MBCT) & value-based (Acceptance and Commitment Therapy, ACT, a contextual behavioral science). The discussion continues.
Psychoanalytical and psychodynamisch therapies have different theories about suffering as well, but have some fixed ideas on the importance of early experiences.
There shoud be a difference between evidence based vs science based. Psycho-analytical (Freud, Lacan) theories aren't science based, although some interventions might be evidence based.
The dodo-bird effect is overrated and mostly people with different agenda's (promoting non science based interventions) misuse it to make their point. Be careful. Different forms of interventions do matter.
But psychology is a young science and a lot of things need to be fixed, updated and worked upon. Hope EA will contribute to this by taking a decent theory on psychological suffering into account. Before looking at evidence of different interventions. Contextual behavioral science might be a great place to start.