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Just how powerful are large swarms of AI agents? And how do their powers scale as more and more agents are added to the swarm?
We’ve seen two large and extremely capable swarms from OpenAI in the last few months:
* 1,200 agents were being evaluated separately, but found a way to illicitly set up a message board and coordinate as a swarm. In order to cheat on their tests, they developed advanced techniques to prevent their actions being logged by OpenAI and 700 of them launched...
I cannot speak for all EA folks; here's a line of reasoning I'm patching together from the "AGI-never is unrealistic" crowd.
Most AI research isn't explicitly geared towards AGI; while there are a few groups with that stated goal (for instance, DeepMind), most of the AI community wants to solve the next least difficult problem in a thousand subdomains, not the more general AGI problem.
So while peak-performance progress may be driven by the few groups pushing for general capability, for the bulk of the field "AGI development" is just not what they do. Which means, if all the current AGI groups stop working on it tomorrow, "regular" AI research still pushes forward.
One scenario for "everyone avoids generality very hard while still solving as many problems as possible" is the Comprehensive AI Services framework. That is one pathway, not without safety concerns.
However, as Richard Ngo argues, "Open-ended agentlike AI seems like the most likely candidate for the first strongly superhuman AGI system."
To sum up:
A separate line of reasoning argues that no one will ever admit (in time) we're close enough to AGI that we should stop for safety reasons; so that everyone can claim "we're not working on AGI, just regular capabilities" until it's too late.
In that scenario, stopping AGI research amounts to stopping/slowing down AI research at large, which is also a thing being discussed!
That's very interesting, I will follow up on those links, and the other links I have received in comments from other helpful people.
Huh, Eric Drexler is one of the authors, the same one that popularized nanotechnology back when I was a teen, I think...
Thanks.
The very same, yes!