Cross-posted from my Substack.
Epistemic status: I’ve puzzled over this for a long time but I’m not sure I came to the right answers. I'm sharing this partly because it might help others work on resource allocation, but mostly because some smarter reader might tell me how to do it better.
TL;DR:
* I he...
With the AI windfall, mental health may be taken increasingly seriously by mainstream EA. There’s increasingly room to explore the cause area and answer some of the biggest uncertainties; at the same time, costs of the most effective interventions are continuing to fall. StrongMinds is now treating for ~$35, about a third of GiveWell’s best guess from a few years ago, and is expected to...
As I have been working on SIRA (Societal Impacts Research on AI) for the past three months or so, a common sentiment has been expressed that doesn't sit well with me: that there is limited evidence of current demand for the research and talent SIRA would aim to produce. While I can see how this may be true, I'm reminded of the line attributed (probably apocryphally) to Henry Ford, "If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses," and Steve Jobs's version, that people don't know what they want until you show it to them.
I'm using this quick take as a public note to work on this tension and look for evidence against that sentiment. My plan: (1) Make a list of "societal impact" research that I can point to and say, "Hey, look, so-and-so has done this and has addressed xyz." (2) Trace the "impact" of these works to show funders/partners that this type of work can and does make an impact. (3) Write a full blog post about this tension, pointing to this evidence.