I just got an offer for a job facilitating broad-based economic growth in developing countries. Whether I take the job or another one depends on the answer to the following question: to what degree does global development increase meat consumption? Would, say, a yearly donation of $5,000 directed to Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) "obviously" offset the increase in meat consumption from taking this job, or should I be more uncertain as to whether the net impact on animals is positive or negative?
My understanding is that economic growth would lead to a predictable short-term increase in the demand for meat, thereby increasing the total number of animals in factory farms. However, in the long-term, accelerating economic development might lead to less demand for meat compared to the counterfactual by lowering the birth rate before the population grows.
I'm not sure how to quantify these short- and long-term factors. In my job decision, I do not wish to weigh the benefits to humans with the consequences toward animals; I'd like to help both humans and animals if I can!
I'm most interested in whether you think a donation to ACE would clearly outweigh the downsides to animals or not, and why.
Any help would be greatly appreciated!
Yes, rich people eat more meat. A lot more. From OWID
Is this relationship causal? Probably. Obviously this is hard to establish but I'd bet that if we did have well-identified studies they'd validate that.
Is the increase in meat consumption per capita as incomes rise offset by declining birth rates? Probably not. The differences in meat consumption between rich and poor countries is large (can easily be a factor of 10 or more).
Does a $5000 donation to ACE offset the potential harms? This is a deep question. I suppose you could build a model to address it. I think that model would be extremely brittle and probably rest on weak evidentiary foundations. So I have no idea.
My thought: I would take the job that most increases your human capital. I am increasingly of the opinion that the future is going to be weird and we really, really need to be building skills. The big picture is too murky to think about in a productive way and things are going to be chaotic. We should focus on navigating the incoming chaos.