DK

David_Kristoffersson

CEO @ Convergence Analysis
438 karmaJoined Working (15+ years)
www.convergenceanalysis.org

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CEO of Convergence

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36

X-risk: yes. The idea of fast AI development: yes. Knowing the phrase "takeoff speed"? No. For sure, this also depends a bit on the type of role and seniority. "Moral patienthood" strikes me as one of those terms where if someone is interested in one of our jobs, they will likely get the idea, but they might not know the term "moral patienthood". So let's note here that I wrote "language", and you wrote "concepts", and these are not the same. One of the distinctions I care about is that people understand, or can easily come to understand the ideas/concepts. I care less what specific words they use.

Digressing slightly, note that using specific language is a marker for group belonging, and people seem to find pleasure in using in-group language as this signals group belonging, even if there exists standard terms for the concepts. Oxytocin creates internal group belonging and at the same time exclusion towards outsiders. Language can do some of the same.

So yes, it's important to me that people understand certain core concepts. But again, don't overindex on me. I should've maybe clarified the following better in my first comment: I've personally thought that EA/AI safety groups have done a bit too much in-group hiring, so I set out how to figure out how to hire people more widely, and retain the same mission focus regardless.

Speaking as a hiring manager at a small group in AI safety/governance who made an effort to not just hire insiders (it's possible I'm in a minority -- don't take my take for gospel if you're looking for a job), it's not important to me that people know a lot about in-group language, people, or events around AI safety. It is very important to me that people agree with foundational ideas such as to actually be impact-focused and to take short-ish AI timelines and AI risk seriously and have thought about it seriously.

Thanks Holly. I agree that fixating on just trying to answer the "AI timelines" question won't be productive for most people. Though, we all need to come to terms with it somehow. I like your callout for "timeline-robust interventions". I think that's a very important point. Though I'm not sure that implies calling your representatives.

I disagree that "we know what we need to know". To me, the proper conversation about timelines isn't just "when AGI", but rather, "at what times will a number of things happen", including various stages of post-AGI technology, and AI's dynamics with the world as a whole. It incorporates questions like "what kinds of AIs will be present".

This allows us to make more prudent interventions: What technical AI safety and AI governance you need depends on the nature of the AI that will be built. Important AI to address isn't just orthogonality thesis-driven paperclip maximizers.

I think seeing the way AI is emerging, that it's clear some classic AI safety challenges are not as relevant anymore. For example, it seems to me that "value learning" is looking much easier than classic AI safety advocates thought. But versions of many classic AI safety challenges are still relevant. The same issue remains: if we can't verify that something vastly more intelligent than us is acting in our interests, then we are in peril.

I don't think it would be right if everyone would be occupied with such AI timelines and AI scenarios questions, but I think they deserve very strong efforts. If you are trying to solve a problem, the most important thing to get right is what problem you're trying to solve. And what is the problem of AI safety? That depends on what kind of AI will be present in the world and what humans will be doing with it.

Thank you, Zachary and team! I'm happy to see CEA take an ambitious stance. Your goals make perfect sense to me. The EA community is a very important one and your stewardship is needed.

I like this principles-first approach! I think it's really valuable to have a live discussion that starts from "How do we do the most good?", even if I am kind of all-in on one cause. (Kind of: I think most causes tie together: making the future turn out well.) I think it'd be a valuable use of the time of you folks to try and clarify and refine your approach, philosophy, and incentives further, using the comments here as one input.

BERI is doing an awesome service for university-affiliated groups, I hope more will take advantage of it!

Would you really call Jakub's response "hostile"?

Thanks for posting this. I find it quite useful to get an overview of how the EA community is being managed and developed.

Happy to see the new institute take form! Thanks for doing this, Maxime and Konrad. International long-term governance appears very high-leverage to me. Good luck, and I'm looking forward to see more of your work!

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