Shoutout to the 130-ish people in the UK who volunteered to be infected with malaria in two separate studies at various stages of the R21 development process! Those studies helped identify Matrix-M as the ideal adjuvant, and also provided insight into the optimal dose/vaccination schedule.

I'm confused — would someone mind explaining to me how the quoted numbers show 71-80% efficacy?

(Sorry I'm probably being mathematically illiterate here, but if it's a problem I have, maybe others will too!)

Cautiously optimistic here. It should be noted that since the Phase 2 trial showed efficacy dependent on the amount of Matrix M adjuvant used, the adjuvant providing company, Novavax will need to execute better with its manufacturing partners than it has shown it is capable of. Though this company has historically conducted many clinical trials, it has dropped the ball on execution. It failed a phase 3 RSV trial due to arguably unfit trial endpoints and despite being awarded $1.6 B in Operation Warp Speed money for its COVID vaccine, has drastically underperformed in delivering to all markets, including its committed doses to COVAX due to manufacturing slowness/lack of regulatory capture in the US (I'd say only partly their fault here given FDA slow walking them) and deficiencies in licensing and manufacturing expertise (even when working with Serum Institute of India). They started to cancel manufacturing subcontracts, triggering reneg payment settlement clauses (i.e. $185M to Fujifilm Diosynth, GAVI pulling out of a $700M covid vaccine deal due to failure to deliver in time), and in cases where trials were effective such as its flu candidate which passed phase 3 before the pandemic, their vaccine still has not reached patients commercially (Nanoflu, which showed cross-reactive polyfunctional CD4+ T-cell responses and outperformed Sanofi’s quadrivalent Fluzone in a head to head trial).

Been following Novavax since they're in my backyard in the DC metro area and knew people in their COVID vaccine trial (protein subunit, even slightly outperformed Moderna/Pfizer in some efficacy and side effects metrics.... But very few people ended up getting it compared to Moderna/Pfizer due to lateness to market). Stock went from highs ~$250/share during COVID to now ~$8 arguably due to mismanagement (CEO finally recently stepped down). Would be a pity if the company continues its pattern of misfiring here; hope it doesn't fold, and hopefully if they're just providing matrix M they don't end up being the bottleneck in full manufacturing. Case study in better management/Institutional decision making as an EA cause area in my opinion.