Excessive political polarisation, especially party polarisation in the US, makes it harder to reach consensus or a fair compromise, and undermines trust in public institutions. Efforts to avoid harmful long-term dynamics, and to strengthen democratic governance, are therefore of interest to effective altruists.
One concrete lever is electoral reform. By changing to a better voting system, we could (so the argument goes) elect officials that better represent the electorate, resulting in a more functional political process.
Within effective altruism, approval voting is the most prominent proposal for reform (see e.g. this post). The Center for Election Science, which advocates approval voting, appears to be the only electoral reform organisation with significant ties to the EA community - e.g. in the form of a grant from OpenPhil.
In this post, I will question the focus on approval voting, and argue that it might be better to support other proposed voting systems that have a track record in competitive elections. I’ll also offer some thoughts on how promising electoral reform is.
Which voting system should we advocate for?
There are many possible methods and many different criteria to evaluate a voting method, some of which are provably incompatible. So, like other methods, approval voting satisfies some criteria and fails others. (See here for an overview of single-winner voting methods and satisfied/failed criteria.) Given that no perfect method exists, we should arguably look for a method which works well in practice and has good chances of being adopted.
Would approval voting work well in competitive elections? I think there are good reasons to be sceptical:
- Approval voting is vulnerable to tactical voting. It fails the later-no-harm criterion: approving a second candidate can hurt your favourite. The average voter probably isn’t that strategic, but in high-stakes elections, savvy campaign leaders would surely attempt to get their supporters to vote tactically. The winner, then, may not be the candidate with the most support, but the one that’s best at manipulating the system. (See here for more details on this.)
- Approval voting radically re-interprets the common-sense notion of "having a majority", leading to results that may be considered counterintuitive. This is reflected in the voting method criteria that approval voting fails. For instance, approval voting sometimes selects a candidate even though a majority of voters would, in a head-to-head contest, prefer any other candidate. (This is the Condorcet loser criterion.)
- Indicating support or opposition for each candidate is more expressive than just having a single vote, but it is still binary and does not allow voters to express more nuanced preferences between different candidates.
- There is almost no track record of approval voting being successfully used in competitive elections. Where it was used, approval voting was often repealed later on - e.g. in Dartmouth alumni elections and in internal IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers) elections (search for IEEE here).
Advocates of approval voting have responded to those criticisms. And of course, approval voting does also offer advantages: it avoids the spoiler effect and tends to favour moderate "compromise candidates". The latter is of particular interest if reducing polarisation is one of the main goals of electoral reform. However, the tendency to favour moderate candidates could also be considered a bias and is not universally viewed as a positive feature of a voting system.
All things considered, I’m not convinced that we should advocate for approval voting rather than other methods (e.g. instant runoff voting or Condorcet methods). It seems to me that effective altruism has not examined approval voting (or alternatives) in sufficient detail.
In general, my impression is that discussions of voting reform suffer from the problem that people tend to pick their favourite method and then cherry-pick one-sided arguments in favour of it. In particular, people overemphasise criteria that favour their method does well while ignoring or and downplaying problems. The Center for Election Science often talks about no favourite betrayal (which approval voting satisfies) and not much about later-no-harm (which it fails). FairVote doesn't talk much about no favourite betrayal and talks a lot about later-no-harm - because their favoured method (instant runoff voting) satisfies later-no-harm but fails no favourite betrayal.
Given all this, what kind of voting system should we advocate for (if any)?
Since there is (some degree of) consensus that plurality voting is bad, but no consensus on which alternative is best, we should focus on the reform proposals that are most viable. That’s arguably instant runoff voting (IRV, called ranked choice voting / RCV in the US), which is championed by FairVote. Unlike approval voting, IRV has a track record in competitive elections and is much more in line with conventional notions of “majority”. (My personal favourite voting system would be a Condorcet method such as Ranked Pairs, but there are no large organisations advocating this, and it’s unlikely that Condorcet methods will be adopted.)
IRV isn’t perfect either. It also fails important criteria, and it isn’t clear whether IRV results in less polarisation. Still, IRV seems clearly superior to plurality voting and has stood the test of time, so I think efforts to implement IRV are worth supporting. (Even the very simple step of adding a runoff between the top two candidates would be a significant improvement over plurality voting.)
Note that this discussion is mostly about single-winner elections such as US presidential elections, rather than multi-winner elections, such as electing a parliament (e.g. the House of Representatives). It seems not obvious, overall, whether we should focus on changing single-winner elections or parliamentary elections.
For parliamentary, I think it’s best to use a form of proportional representation rather than (or in addition to) first-past-the-post in single-seat constituencies. Proportional representation tends to lead to multi-party systems that require cross-party collaboration and reduce the team sport mentality that drives US polarisation.
How promising is electoral reform?
Clearly, work on electoral reform is premised on the belief that the status quo of plurality voting (in the US/UK) is a poor voting method. I think this isn’t entirely obvious. A steelman of plurality voting is that it grants power to the largest coherent political coalition (coherent in the sense of being able to coordinate on a single candidate). That may be less than 50% of the voters, but it’s not prima facie unreasonable to put the largest coherent political coalition in charge of things. The fact that plurality voting provides tactical incentives that limit the number of (realistic) options (often leading to a two-party system) can be seen as a feature, not a bug: it channels democratic decision-making and produces clear results.
Still, I think the downsides of plurality voting outweigh its advantages, and there is some degree of consensus among experts that plurality voting is not a good system.
Suppose, then, that we have settled on a voting system that would be a significant improvement over the status quo. That raises the question of how tractable it is to change the voting system for high-stakes elections such as the US president or the House of Representatives. Such efforts face significant vested interests of individuals and parties that benefit from the current system. Also, countries rarely make dramatic changes to their voting procedures once established, though there are exceptions (e.g. New Zealand’s switch to proportional representation).
Electoral reform also doesn’t seem particularly neglected. There are several organisations advocating electoral reform in the US and UK. In terms of funding, the Hewlett Foundation’s Madison Initiative is a major player that’s interested in electoral reform (supporting FairVote’s advocacy for ranked choice voting) and other ways to strengthen US democracy.
All things considered, I think electoral reform, while probably not a “top tier” intervention, should be part of the longtermist EA portfolio.
I've said for years that if there is a referendum / ballot initiative to switch from first-past-the-post to anything else, always say yes. Anything is better than first-past-the-post. Having said that... I have opinions.
First of all, before choosing a voting system you have to know if there will be a single winner or many. Single-winner voting systems should not be used to run multi-winner elections because single-winner district-based voting method cannot produce a fair outcome; gerrymandering is always possible. Also, these methods pretty reliably magnify the power of large parties over small parties, which has always been frustrating to me (because I consistently dislike large parties as well as most smaller parties, and feel like there is no one to represent me). Multi-winner elections should use multi-winner voting systems! Naturally, my favorite systems are the one I designed, Simple Direct Representation, and the one that inspired it, Direct Representation, but since these systems will never happen, I'd recommend good old fashioned Proportional Representation, Mixed-Member Proportional, STV or any other proportional system that seems politically viable. Sometimes at night I dream of a meta-voting system where a country splits its legislature into two voting systems and during every election there's a vote for which one people like better, which adjusts the relative influence of each system, and then ... but never mind, no one would vote for it: it's too democratic.
As for single-winner systems, I rank them clearly in this order:
1. Score voting (a.k.a. range voting, cardinal voting), where each candidate is rated on a scale (e.g. 0 to 5 stars, like the old Netflix. I was puzzled that Netflix killed off star-ratings; it seemed to produce more accurate and meaningful recommendations than the new up/down system. The reason given for the change was not that it didn't work well - the system worked quite well, but people didn't understand it. If it were up to me I'd focus on helping people understand it, rather than scrapping it.)
2. Condorcet methods, e.g. Ranked Pairs, which is based on preferential ballots (candidates in preferential order). A Condorcet method looks at each pair of candidates in isolation, with respect to all the ballots, and elects the candidate that wins a majority of the vote in every pairing against every other candidate. The problem is that there is not always a "condorcet winner". If there are three candidates A, B, and C, it can happen that A beats B, B beats C and C beats A. So a Condorcet system must also specify how to resolve such conflicts. Ignorant people often promote "the preferential ballot" as a voting system, but a preferential ballot is just a ballot, not a voting system. IRV is far more popular than Condorcet, but it seems strictly worse, because IRV has no underlying mathematical basis, and happens to have somewhat unstable behavior and fails the monotonicity criterion. Also, I believe voters should be allowed to rank two candidates as equal (no preference between them) or "no opinion"; Condorcet can support such features, while IRV cannot.
I used to prefer Condorcet, probably because I learned about it first and liked the intuitive idea that "if a candidate is preferred by a majority of voters over all others, that candidate should win." I changed my mind for the following reasons:
1. Range Voting, as well as its simpler cousin Approval Voting, allow the outcome of an election to be measured numerically, which lets voters understand the popularity of candidates, which is relevant in future elections. You can say things like "minor-party candidate M had an an average rating just one point behind the winner" or "the winner of the election had a lower average score than any other in history". Condorcet does not allow this. If somebody comes up with a way to turn Condorcet or IRV results into simple numbers, I think somebody else could come up with a different way to do that, allowing confusing, competing numerical narratives about the results.
2. Score Voting allows more nuance. I can say "I like X a little more than Y, but I like Y a lot more than Z".
3. Score Voting works far better in case the number of candidates is large. If there are 30 candidates, putting them in a single order is fairly impractical and burdensome for the voter unless ties are allowed.
4. Tallying results is easier with Score voting than Condorcet (though not as easy as Approval). Note that with computers we can calculate outcomes with an arbitrarily complex method, but computers can be hacked, so manual counting remains relevant.
5. If you wanted to know how happy people were with the outcome of an election, how might you ask them? "On a scale of 1 to 10, how happy are you with the outcome of the election?" That's asking for a Score! Score voting simply turns this question into ballot form, so that if people answer honestly, it will maximize the average answer to the happiness question! A criticism against Score voting might explain "if you raise the preference of a less-preferred candidate L on your ballot, you could cause L to beat your preferred candidate P who you rated higher". But if this happens because overall satisfaction of all voters is collectively higher, that's a fine outcome. I'm open to hearing about ways the Score voting system could be gamed, but such gaming is only interesting if other systems are not similarly vulnerable to gaming. (Edit: aha, here's the site where I learned about this idea.) The one "game" we can count on is something I'll call "spreading", where we spread out our true opinion on the ballot: if there are 3 candidates and my happiness would be 4/10 if A wins, 5/10 if B wins and 6/10 if C wins, I will spread this out to 0/10 for A, 5/10 for B and 10/10 for C. But every proposed voting system has something analogous to this.
Approval voting is technically a version of Score voting that gathers relatively little information from voters. Its virtues are that it is extremely simple and easy to implement, and I'm persuaded of its value on that basis. I suspect that, statistically, as a result of a large number of voters, Approval won't perform much worse than Score voting in practice. My intuition is this: consider one hundred voters who partially approve of a candidate C; they would like to rank this person as 5/10, but on an Approval ballot they can't. I suspect that roughly half of the people will "approve" of this person, so that overall the results are similar to what Score voting would produce.