A little off-topic and self-promoting, but I thought this take aged well, and it's a good reminder that EAs should not neglect the long game of democracy fragility in the US during these non-election years because even securing liberal democracy at the ballot box takes investments years in advance.
I agree that it aged well in terms of the expected effects of certain electoral outcomes, but the way I see it, that is different from claiming that electoral interventions would be cost-effective (even in retrospect). There was so much money and effort put into the election, it's not at all clear to me that EA would have been able to make a difference, even with the full weight of the movement dedicated to it.
I would go further and say it's pretty clear that my even if the movement like you say put it's weight behind the election, it would almost certainly have made no difference.
But even if it had a very small change of swaying the outcome it could have been worth it in EV terms of course.
I agree, but personally I would put this in Pascalls mugging territory of tiny chances. I'm aware everyone's "Pascalls threshold" is different.
It's not even clear to me that EA trying to change the election would be positive EV. Look at what's happened with AI.
There are other interventions that would be worth considering, like electoral reform. For example, there were ranked-choice voting ballot initiatives in several states, and that kind of reform has comparatively few direct workers. While those interventions are funded, they are not as heavily funded as direct electoral campaigning. Other alternatives like STAR voting or quadratic voting that could have a bigger payoff could be more neglected.
EA is funding some of that stuff, e.g., The Center for Election Science.
Political pressure shall be applied on the European Comission and the UK Government:
See here (https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FTTPCtkizkAQ9fkvM/unicode-wvyp) for the Rapid Response Fund: https://www.founderspledge.com/funds/rapid-response-fund. It's an opportunity to donate to help mitigate the worst immediate consequences of the aid freeze.
Heya, my local EA group will organise a discussion event on this topic. Now that we're half a year on, I would love to know what you think should change, how EA-aligned orgs should act, and if their response so far has been sufficient.
Has anyone considered what donors can do in response to the USAID freeze?
Categories of actions which spring to my mind:
My thoughts on the categories of action are quite quick and dirty, as are my thoughts on the analysis needed, so I wouldn't be surprised if I'm missing something material here.
This is a good question Sanjay. Here are my thoughts off the top of my head: