A preliminary estimate, and a request for better ones.
Summary
I believe the standard literature estimates for the number of DALYs attributable to a case of stunting are too low, largely because they don’t account for the long term effects. This means that childhood nutritional interventions that reduce the prevalence of stunting may be substantially more cost-effective than previously believed.
Epistemic status
Exploratory and back-o...
I’ve been feeling pretty shaken since the METR report about the Hugging Face incident came out last week. Over the weekend, I wrote up some thoughts on how lonely the AI situation sometimes feels to me. It’s more personal than what I’d usually share publicly, but I thought I’d post it here in case it resonates with anyone else.
I’m very grateful to the man...
TL;DR: Kairos has raised $50 million from Coefficient Giving for two years of funding, one of the largest commitments they’ve made towards AI safety fieldbuilding to date. We’re using this to make an ambitious push for growing Kairos, broadening our portfolio of talent infrastructure projects and incubating new organizations. We’ve doubled in size in the last six mon...
Here's an idea on how funders in AI safety and governance could help applicants improve their applications and projects: Share statistics! (What follows is a text I'm also sending directly to a funder.)
I understand you aren't really able to give individualized feedback. Though, as applicants, it would be really helpful to have some more clarity. I think you'd like to give more feedback, if you were able. In thinking about this, here's an idea I had.
You could create a score chart, where for every application you keep numerical or binary scores on the reasons it did well or not in the evaluation. Then you can release some statistics publicly.
You could for example be able to say things like:
(I picked more negative than positive slices in these examples, but the positive side is just as interesting.)
In fact, some of these statistics would be helpful for donors to <funder>. The scores should track some pretty different kinds of dimensions.
Would this be hard to do? I think there can be some pretty different levels of ambition here and some are pretty easy. Releasing just a few pieces of statistics for example might be possible to do based on your current tracking.
Potentially, you could even let people request access to some subset of these scores for their application specifically. Something like, the email used to send the application can send an email to request an automated response with the scores you'd be prepared to divulge.
Could this create more opportunities for gaming? Well yes, but assuming your criteria are actually good proxies for value, then you also achieve: (1) Better applications (so you get to grant valuable things you might filter otherwise), and (2) Better projects (people make their projects have better theories of change etc).
The lack of two-way communication in funding seems like a large missed opportunity to me!
Grantmakers, even when you don't grant, wield a lot of influence. You shape incentives in the ecosystem.