On LinkedIn Ben Todd repeated his claim about room for more funding up until the end of 2023, based on this GiveWell spreadsheet
I'll repeat my reply here:
I'd really like to hear from someone at GiveWell (or the specific charities) to verify that this is the right interpretation of the funding gaps. For example, presumably this considers the funding gaps for specific programmes/countries that the likes of AMF are currently focusing on. But once that funding gap is filled, it seems plausible that there are other countries they could work on.
As an example, AMF currently state they have a funding gap of $53m (vs less than $1m according to that GiveWell spreadsheet). They state that "Agreements are being finalised with each country's Ministry of Health. This process is far advanced for the above programmes and we do not anticipate any issues. We do not publicly identify countries involved until an Agreement is signed". It seems plausible that these countries are not included in GiveWell's figures.
Another possibility is that the funding gap on AMF's website is for programmes that will be implemented after 2023
(I work at GiveWell)
Thanks for sharing the news, James! The success of 2020 was surprising and exciting. We plan on publishing an update on our room for more funding before the end of November, and we’ll have much more detail to share then. A few high-level points we plan to address:
We’ll share more details and answer further questions once our update is live.