Michael Nielsen has a beautiful new essay on moral imagination: the ability humans have to 'develop and transmit new notions of good action, indeed, even new kinds of good'.
As examples, he gives:
* Hammurabi's creation of a code of laws (in 1754 BCE) and his justification of his rule not in terms of divine or hereditary right, but by the delivery of justice to his citizens.
* St Gregory of Nyssa's...
Epistemic status: Speculation from two decently informed advocates armed with anecdata.
Note on process: After having some version of this conversation several times and saying, “we should probably write about this publicly,” we took the less heroic route: we recorded one of our conversations, fed the transcript into an LLM, and then substantially revised the structure, substance, and framing ourselves. We will not be sharing the transcript, as it is in...
A preliminary estimate, and a request for better ones.
Summary
I believe the standard literature estimates for the number of DALYs attributable to a case of stunting are too low, largely because they don’t account for the long term effects. This means that childhood nutritional interventions that reduce the prevalence of stunting may be substantially more cost-effective than previously believed.
Epistemic status
Exploratory and back-o...
Hot take: When Anthropic IPO money starts flowing into AI safety, the ecosystem should consider operating more outside charitable structures. Charities get an indirect public subsidy via tax-deductible donations, but the trade-off is greater compliance burden and cost, restrictions on spending, and a greater reliance on public goodwill. As the world gets weirder from AI-driven job losses and political shifts, taxpayers may be less happy to see their foregone tax dollars going to China dialogues or high salaries for technical AI safety researchers. (Not legal or financial advice.)
Agreed, part of the thesis of https://surplus.dev!