Has there been much research on the estimated impact that the general population has, and what sort of distribution curve would be created?
The vast majority of people would tend to lead relatively inconsequential lives. But is there a normal distribution around an impact of zero? But that assumes equal numbers of people with both successively greater or net negative impacts. So instead would we expect a very long tail of high positive impact people?
Note: This post was crossposted from Planned Obsolescence by the Forum team, with the author's permission. The author may not see or respond to comments on this post.
Subtitle: If acceleration compounds, the naive extrapolation implies superintelligence within a year
This post discusses a public METR report on AI R&D acceler...
Crossposted to Less Wrong
‘Like most of life’s dangers, the dangers of artificial intelligence are not easily identified from the armchair.’
J Dmitri Gallow
Epistemic status
I’m not an expert in this field, and herein I make some sweeping generalisations educated guesses about the overall...
TL;DR:
* When we started Rethink Priorities (RP) in 2018, our mission was, simply put, to close the knowledge gaps that stopped people from improving the world as much as they could. That hasn’t changed much, but the landscape we’re doing it in is shifting.
* In 2027, we plan to grow our core GHD, Animal Welfare, and Worldview Investigations teams to take on emerging priorities across causes, including those that the forthcoming transformative AI is creating.
...
Distribution of Impact Across General Population
Has there been much research on the estimated impact that the general population has, and what sort of distribution curve would be created?
The vast majority of people would tend to lead relatively inconsequential lives. But is there a normal distribution around an impact of zero? But that assumes equal numbers of people with both successively greater or net negative impacts. So instead would we expect a very long tail of high positive impact people?
Probably depends a lot on how you "split the gains" of the positive impact.
If I sell you ice cream (which is healthy! don't worry), who made the happiness? Me? The Ice cream maker? The person who invented capitalism?