Just how powerful are large swarms of AI agents? And how do their powers scale as more and more agents are added to the swarm?
We’ve seen two large and extremely capable swarms from OpenAI in the last few months:
* 1,200 agents were being evaluated separately, but found a way to illicitly set up a message board and coordinate as a swarm. In order to cheat on their tests, they developed advanced techniques to prevent their actions being logged by OpenAI and 700 of them launched...
Often folks hit us up because they are thinking of starting an incubator and want advice.
Typically their motivation is either that (a) they have a list of specific things they want built that no one is building, or (b) they think an ecosystem needs more new projects generally to absorb more talent and deploy more funding effectively.
Here are six questions we often ask prospective teams, to help them figure out what to do. If you're incubator-curious...
A century-old pill, given to the right people, could cost-effectively save many lives.
Summary
* Targeting low-cost prevention toward people at elevated risk may uncover highly cost-effective ways to address noncommunicable diseases. Hypertensive disorders in pregnancy could be a test case for this approach.
* ...
Distribution of Impact Across General Population
Has there been much research on the estimated impact that the general population has, and what sort of distribution curve would be created?
The vast majority of people would tend to lead relatively inconsequential lives. But is there a normal distribution around an impact of zero? But that assumes equal numbers of people with both successively greater or net negative impacts. So instead would we expect a very long tail of high positive impact people?
Probably depends a lot on how you "split the gains" of the positive impact.
If I sell you ice cream (which is healthy! don't worry), who made the happiness? Me? The Ice cream maker? The person who invented capitalism?