BLUF:
* To determine whether AI is ‘improving exponentially’, ‘hitting the wall’, or any other claim which involves a quantity or magnitude (e.g. ‘This model was a big leap/small increment’). We need a good y-axis: an interval scale of AI capability which means +1 unit always represents the same degree of ‘how much better’, in the same way +1 degree Celsius is always the same amount of ‘how much hotter’.
* Yet there is no good y-axis for AI capability. All our...
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TL;DR
* The Long-Term Future Fund is closing down, and EA Funds is launching the Transformative AI Fund with a new full-time team.
* The fund's primary focus is technical AI safety and AI governance (including post-AGI governance), as well as supporting fields such as field-building and forecasting. We'll also consider non-GCR implications of transformative AI such as flourishing futures and digital...
Mitigation work seems very low on neglectedness.
I'd encourage more work on planning for post-COVID reactions and policy proposals, as well as thinking about how EAs can be in a good position to influence such decisions.
Could you be more specific or provide an example?
People should be working on funding proposals for Bio-X risk mitigation policies, such as greater international coordination, better health monitoring systems, investment in non-disease specific symptomatic surveillance, and similar. These are likely to be far easier to fund in 3-6 months, as a huge pool of money is allocated to work on fixing the next pandemic.