Announcing Fatebook for Slack - a Slack bot designed to help high-impact orgs build a culture of forecasting.
With Fatebook, you can ask a forecasting question in your team's Slack:
Then, everyone in the channel can forecast:
When it's time to resolve the question as Yes, No or Ambiguous, the author gets a reminder. Then everyone gets a Brier score, based on their accuracy.
It's like a tiny, private, fast Metaculus inside your team's Slack.
Why build a culture of forecasting?
- Make better decisions
- Communicate more clearly
- Build your track record
- Trust your most reliable forecasters
We built Fatebook for Slack aiming to help high-impact orgs become more effective.
See the FAQs on the website for more info. We'd really value your feedback in the comments, in our Discord, or at adam@sage-future.org.
You can add Fatebook to your workspace here.
Thanks to all our alpha testers for their valuable feedback, especially the teams at 80,000 Hours, Lightcone, EA Cambridge, and Samotsvety.
Ah, great! I think it would be nice to offer different aggregation options, though if you do offer one I agree that geo mean of odds is the best default. But I can imagine people wanting to use medians or averages, or even specifying their own aggregation functions. Especially if you are trying to encourage uptake by less technical organizations, it seems important to offer at least one option that is more legible to less numerate people.