I spent 45 minutes on a quick take and then accidentally deleted it.[1] So here’s the short version:
I’m worried about things like plan A because it kind of looks like they might give an autocracy power forever. If we co-develop AGI with China and then allow China to do whatever they want with AGI and ASI, with some fraction of the universe (perhaps proportional to their population or something like that); this could be a huge risk from a downside perspective, and it just seems like I'm really worried that a dictator could have arbitrary power over as many as ten thousand trillion trillion trillion trillion (i.e. ~10^52) future people, as China settles its designated fraction of deep space over the long-term future. Even if those people lived net positive lives, this just seems profoundly sketchy to me. If Xi Jinping (or some other dictator) does try to maximize some ideology or some other thing, and we've made a deal with them that is enforceable, that they can do whatever they want… Yeah, again, this just seems really scary to me, and having empathy for all of those people (including post-human beings, moral patient AIs, etc.), this just feels wrong.
Who knows, maybe dictators won't optimize resources toward ends that have negative effects, and so whatever they do will be many orders of magnitude less bad than the people who are trying to optimize good by using resources for their fraction of the universe as efficiently as possible.
But I'm still worried. It would be nice if we had robust interventions that can help us with this kind of thing. But I realize the global order and game theoretic molochian dynamic makes this quite difficult. Would be really curious to see if other people have other plans that can avoid permanent dictatorships without being significantly more catastrophic in other ways.
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I need to remember not to use quick takes, they often don’t auto-save like posts do, and this has happened before. I did submit a bug report.