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Thoughts and Notes: October 3rd 0012022 (1)
I have been working on a post which introduces a framework for existential risks that I have not seen covered on the either LW or EAF, but I think I've impeded my progress by setting out to do more than I originally intended.
Rather than simply introduce the framework and compare it to the Bostrom's 2013 framework and the Wikipedia page on GCRs, I've tried to aggregate all global and existential catastrophes I could find under the "new" framework.
Creating an anthology of global and existential catastrophes is something I would like to complete at some point, but doing so in the post I've written would be overkill and would not in line with the goal of"making the introduction of this little known framework brief and simple".
To make my life easier, I am going to remove the aggregated catastrophes section of my post. I will work incrementally (and somewhat informally) on accumulating links and notes for and thinking about each global and/or existential catastrophe through shortform posts.
Each shortform post in this vein will pertain to a single type of catastrophe. Of course, I may post other shortforms in between, but my goal generally is to cover the different global and existential risks one by one via shortform.
As was the case in my original post, I include DALLE-2 art with each catastrophe, and the loose structure for each catastrophe is Risk, Links, Forecasts.
Here is the first catastrophe in the list. Again note that I am not aiming for comprehensiveness here, but rather am trying to get the ball rolling for a more extensive review of the catastrophic or existential risks that I plan to complete at a later date. The forecasts were observed on October 3 0002022 and represent the community's uniform median forecast.
Use of Nuclear Weapons(Anthropogenic, Current, Preventable)
- Risk: The use of a nuclear weapon on a well populated region could directly kill thousands to millions of people. The indirect effects, which include radiation poisoning from the fallout and heightened instability, contributes to additional death. In the event one nuke is deployed, the use of many more nuclear weapons might follow; the soot released into the stratosphere from these blasts could block out the sun - a nuclear winter - leading to the collapse agricultural systems and subsequently to widespread famine. Both scenarios - the use of one nuclear weapon or the use of many - could precipitate a chain of events culminating in societal collapse.
- Links: EAF Wiki; LW Wiki; Nuclear warfare (Wikipedia); Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction (2021); Nuclear War Map; OWID Article (2022); On Assessing the Risk of Nuclear War (2021); Model for impact of nuclear war (2020); "Putin raises possibility of using nuclear weapons for the war" (YouTube, LW 2022)
- Forecasts: Nuke used in Ukraine before 2023? - 5%; US nuke detonated in Russia before 2023? - 1%; Russian nuke detonated in Ukraine before 2023 - 1%; >=1 nuke used in war by 2050? - 28%; No non-test nukes used by 2035? - 76%; If global catastrophe by 2100, due to nuclear war? - 25%; Global thermonuclear war by 2070? - 10%
Thoughts and Notes: October 5th 0012022 (1)
As per my last shortform, over the next couple of weeks I will be moving my brief profiles for different catastrophes from my draft existential risk frameworks post into shortform posts to make the existential risk frameworks post lighter and more simple.
In my last shortform, I included the profile for the use of nuclear weapons and today I will include the profile for climate change.
Climate change