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Hi! If you're still interested, I think one of the most important questions in AI is how quickly it will transform the world. Effects on GDP are one way of measuring that impact, and growth theory is full of tools for forecasting growth. If this is interesting to you, here's one path you could work on:
- Tom Davidson's Full Takeoff Model is the best comprehensive economic model of AI timelines. Epoch is working on improving the model and making it more accessible to academics and policymakers. If you can identify substantive improvements to the model, plenty of folks are interested in doing so.
- Dive into the theoretical this mathematical description of the model if you're already comfortable with growth theory, or read Davidson's and Trammell's literature reviews for a bit more background, or this Holden Karnofsky blog for the core intuitions.
- Some good academic econ papers on the topic: Aghion Jones and Jones, Jones, and Nordhaus.
- Think of an improvement to the model, and see if you can model it. Theoretical demonstrations or code implementations both work.
Best of luck with this! If you have some good starting points, I'd be happy to chat, and the folks at Epoch likely would be too.
I compiled a list of (mostly EA-related) writings on AI and economic growth in case it's of interest:
and Economic Growth (pdf)
Note that I've only read a few of these, so no guarantees as to quality/relevance. Also note that these are generally (but not always) more on the qualitative/speculative side than quantitative/empirical.
Looks great, thanks! Could you please recommend the one which is particularly interesting/a good place to start? :)
Ah yes, I'd recommend starting with Karnofsky's posts, in particular "This Can't Go On". (For that one and all the others, I recommend reading the summary (if there is one) or skimming a bit first as I expect not all of them to be worth your time.)