Hide table of contents

The classic definition comes from Bostrom:

Existential risk – One where an adverse outcome would either annihilate Earth-originating intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtail its potential.

But this definition, while poetic and gesturing at something real, is more than a bit vague, and many people are unhappy with it, judging from the long chain of clarifying questions in my linked question. So I'm interested in proposed community alternatives that the EA community and/or leading longtermist or xrisk researchers may wish to adopt instead.

Alternative definitions should ideally be precise, clear, unambiguous, and hopefully not too long.

12

0
0

Reactions

0
0
New Answer
New Comment


3 Answers sorted by

I wrote a post last year basically trying to counter misconceptions about Ord's definition and also somewhat operationalise it. Here's the "Conclusion" section:

To summarise:

  • Existential risks are distinct from existential catastrophes, extinction risks, and global catastrophic risks.
  • [I'd say that] An existential catastrophe involves the destruction of the vast majority of humanity’s potential - not necessarily all of humanity’s potential, but more than just some of it.
  • Existential catastrophes could be “slow-moving” or not apparently “catastrophic”; at least in theory, our potential could be destroyed slowly, or without this being noticed.

That leaves ambiguity as to precisely what fraction is sufficient to count as "the vast majority", but I don't think that's a very important ambiguity - e.g., I doubt people's estimates would change a lot if we set the bar at 75% of potential lost vs 99%.

I think the more important ambiguities are what our "potential" is and what it means to "lose" it. As Ord defines x-risk, that's partly a question of moral philosophy - i.e. it's as if his definition contains a "pointer" to whatever moral theories we have credence in, our credence in them, and our way of aggregating that, rather than baking a moral conclusion in. E.g., his definition deliberating avoids taking a stance on things like whether a future where we stay on Earth forever or a future with only strange but in some sense "happy" digital minds, or failing to reach such futures, would be an existential catastrophe. 

This footnote from my post is also relevant: 

I don’t believe Bostrom makes explicit what he means by “potential” in his definitions. Ord writes “I’m making a deliberate choice not to define the precise way in which the set of possible futures determines our potential”, and then discusses that point. I’ll discuss the matter of “potential” more in an upcoming post.

Another approach would be to define existential catastrophes in terms of expected value rather than “potential”. That approach is discussed by Cotton-Barratt and Ord (2015).

If we're being precise, I would just avoid thinking in terms of X-risk, since "X-risk" vs "not-an-X-risk" imposes a binary where really we should just care about losing expected value.

If we want a definition to help gesture at the kinds of things we mean when we talk about X-risk, several possibilities would be fine. I like something like destruction of lots of expected value.

If we wanted to make this precise, which I don't think we should, we would need to go beyond fraction of expected value or fraction of potential, since something could reduce our expectations to zero or negative without being an X-catastrophe (in particular, if our expectations had already been reduced to an insignificant positive value by a previous X-catastrophe; note that the definitions MichaelA and Mauricio suggest are undesirable for this reason), and some things that should definitely be called X-catastrophes can destroy expectation without decreasing potential. A precise definition would need to look more like expectations decreasing by at least a standard deviation. Again, I don't think this is useful, but any simpler alternative won't precisely describe what we mean.

We might also need to appeal to some idealization of our expectations, such as expectations from the point of view of an imaginary smart/knowledgable person observing human civilization, such that changes in our knowledge affecting our expectations don't constitute X-catastrophes, but not so idealized that our future is predictable and nothing affects our expectations...

Best to just speak in terms of what we actually care about, not X-risks but expected value.

(Borrowing some language from a comment I just wrote here.)

If an event occurs that permanently locks us in to an "astronomically good" future that is <X% as valuable as the optimal future, has an existential catastrophe occurred? I'd like to use the term "existential risk" such that the answer is "no" for any value of X that still allows for the future to intuitively seem "astronomically good." If a future intuitively seems just extremely, mind-bogglingly good, then saying that an existential catastrophe has occurred in that future before all the good stuff happened just feels wrong.

So in short, I think "existential catastrophe" should mean what we think of when we think of central examples of existential catastrophes. That includes extinction events and (at least some, but not all) events that lock us in to disappointing futures (futures in which, e.g. "we never leave the solar system" or "massive nonhuman animal suffering continues"). But it does not include things that only seem like catastrophes when a total utilitarian compares them to what's optimal.

Per Linch's point that defining existential risk entirely empirically is kind of impossible, I think that maybe we should embrace defining existential risk in terms of value by defining an arbitrary thresholds of value above which if the world is still capable of reaching that level of value then an existential catastrophe has not occurred.

But rather than use 1% or 50% or 90% of optimal as that threshold, we should use a much lower bar that is approximately at the extremely-fuzzy boundary of what seems like an "astronomically good future" in order to avoi... (read more)

More from Linch
Curated and popular this week
 ·  · 25m read
 · 
Epistemic status: This post — the result of a loosely timeboxed ~2-day sprint[1] — is more like “research notes with rough takes” than “report with solid answers.” You should interpret the things we say as best guesses, and not give them much more weight than that. Summary There’s been some discussion of what “transformative AI may arrive soon” might mean for animal advocates. After a very shallow review, we’ve tentatively concluded that radical changes to the animal welfare (AW) field are not yet warranted. In particular: * Some ideas in this space seem fairly promising, but in the “maybe a researcher should look into this” stage, rather than “shovel-ready” * We’re skeptical of the case for most speculative “TAI<>AW” projects * We think the most common version of this argument underrates how radically weird post-“transformative”-AI worlds would be, and how much this harms our ability to predict the longer-run effects of interventions available to us today. Without specific reasons to believe that an intervention is especially robust,[2] we think it’s best to discount its expected value to ~zero. Here’s a brief overview of our (tentative!) actionable takes on this question[3]: ✅ Some things we recommend❌ Some things we don’t recommend * Dedicating some amount of (ongoing) attention to the possibility of “AW lock ins”[4]  * Pursuing other exploratory research on what transformative AI might mean for animals & how to help (we’re unconvinced by most existing proposals, but many of these ideas have received <1 month of research effort from everyone in the space combined — it would be unsurprising if even just a few months of effort turned up better ideas) * Investing in highly “flexible” capacity for advancing animal interests in AI-transformed worlds * Trying to use AI for near-term animal welfare work, and fundraising from donors who have invested in AI * Heavily discounting “normal” interventions that take 10+ years to help animals * “Rowing” on na
 ·  · 3m read
 · 
About the program Hi! We’re Chana and Aric, from the new 80,000 Hours video program. For over a decade, 80,000 Hours has been talking about the world’s most pressing problems in newsletters, articles and many extremely lengthy podcasts. But today’s world calls for video, so we’ve started a video program[1], and we’re so excited to tell you about it! 80,000 Hours is launching AI in Context, a new YouTube channel hosted by Aric Floyd. Together with associated Instagram and TikTok accounts, the channel will aim to inform, entertain, and energize with a mix of long and shortform videos about the risks of transformative AI, and what people can do about them. [Chana has also been experimenting with making shortform videos, which you can check out here; we’re still deciding on what form her content creation will take] We hope to bring our own personalities and perspectives on these issues, alongside humor, earnestness, and nuance. We want to help people make sense of the world we're in and think about what role they might play in the upcoming years of potentially rapid change. Our first long-form video For our first long-form video, we decided to explore AI Futures Project’s AI 2027 scenario (which has been widely discussed on the Forum). It combines quantitative forecasting and storytelling to depict a possible future that might include human extinction, or in a better outcome, “merely” an unprecedented concentration of power. Why? We wanted to start our new channel with a compelling story that viewers can sink their teeth into, and that a wide audience would have reason to watch, even if they don’t yet know who we are or trust our viewpoints yet. (We think a video about “Why AI might pose an existential risk”, for example, might depend more on pre-existing trust to succeed.) We also saw this as an opportunity to tell the world about the ideas and people that have for years been anticipating the progress and dangers of AI (that’s many of you!), and invite the br
 ·  · 12m read
 · 
I donated my left kidney to a stranger on April 9, 2024, inspired by my dear friend @Quinn Dougherty (who was inspired by @Scott Alexander, who was inspired by @Dylan Matthews). By the time I woke up after surgery, it was on its way to San Francisco. When my recipient woke up later that same day, they felt better than when they went under. I'm going to talk about one complication and one consequence of my donation, but I want to be clear from the get: I would do it again in a heartbeat. Correction: Quinn actually donated in April 2023, before Scott’s donation. He wasn’t aware that Scott was planning to donate at the time. The original seed came from Dylan's Vox article, then conversations in the EA Corner Discord, and it's Josh Morrison who gets credit for ultimately helping him decide to donate. Thanks Quinn! I met Quinn at an EA picnic in Brooklyn and he was wearing a shirt that I remembered as saying "I donated my kidney to a stranger and I didn't even get this t-shirt." It actually said "and all I got was this t-shirt," which isn't as funny. I went home and immediately submitted a form on the National Kidney Registry website. The worst that could happen is I'd get some blood tests and find out I have elevated risk of kidney disease, for free.[1] I got through the blood tests and started actually thinking about whether to do this. I read a lot of arguments, against as well as for. The biggest risk factor for me seemed like the heightened risk of pre-eclampsia[2], but since I live in a developed country, this is not a huge deal. I am planning to have children. We'll just keep an eye on my blood pressure and medicate if necessary. The arguments against kidney donation seemed to center around this idea of preserving the sanctity or integrity of the human body: If you're going to pierce the sacred periderm of the skin, you should only do it to fix something in you. (That's a pretty good heuristic most of the time, but we make exceptions to give blood and get pier