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Hello! I'm Toby. I'm the EA Forum Product Lead at CEA. I'm responsible for the EA Forum's success.

You'll see me posting a lot, authoring the EA Newsletter and curating Forum Digests, making moderator comments and decisions, and more. I'm the person to reach out to with feature requests, complaints, suggestions, etc...

Outside of work, I'm hosting a podcast with my friend Frances: The World Can Be Better, and writing blogposts on anything I feel like.

Before working at CEA, I studied Philosophy at the University of Warwick, and worked for a couple of years on a range of writing and editing projects within the EA space. I also helped run the Amplify Creative Grants program, to encourage more impactful podcasting and YouTube projects (the biggest success of the program was 'How I learned to love shrimp').

76:T5c0,

Hello! I'm Toby. I'm the EA Forum Product Lead at CEA. I'm responsible for the EA Forum's success.

Outside of work, I'm hosting a podcast with my friend Frances: The World Can Be Better, and writing blogposts on anything I feel like.

77:T5c0,

Hello! I'm Toby. I'm the EA Forum Product Lead at CEA. I'm responsible for the EA Forum's success.

Outside of work, I'm hosting a podcast with my friend Frances: The World Can Be Better, and writing blogposts on anything I feel like.

78:T5c0,

Hello! I'm Toby. I'm the EA Forum Product Lead at CEA. I'm responsible for the EA Forum's success.

Outside of work, I'm hosting a podcast with my friend Frances: The World Can Be Better, and writing blogposts on anything I feel like.

79:T145f,

I run Sentinel, a team that seeks to anticipate and respond to large-scale risks. You can read our weekly minutes here. I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and generally becoming more formidable. I'm also a fairly good forecaster: I started out on predicting on Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell, but now do most of my forecasting through Samotsvety, of which Scott Alexander writes:

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

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TL;DR

We’re hosting an essay competition to elicit responses to Anthony DiGiovanni’s sequence, ‘The challenge of unawareness for impartial altruist action guidance’—submit your entries here by August 14th [closed].
- Submissions must be in the form of a Google Doc,..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"oZa9wz3nG2wgW98az","slug":"will-aldred","karma":5360,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"Will Aldred","createdAt":"2021-04-23T20:11:16.281+00:00","postCount":22,"displayName":"Will Aldred","commentCount":269,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":"","profileImageId":"Profile/ofdnepsya0vvsgsgvrqe"}],"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"vd76W2y5p8TKCu9MG","core":false,"name":"Events on the EA Forum","slug":"events-on-the-ea-forum","tagRel":{"_id":"opMTopAqE3zyb2Grs","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":241,"description":"
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  Researcher at the Center on Long-Term Risk. All opinions my own.
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  I’d like to elicit direct, productive critiques of the argument for cluelessness from my sequence on “unawareness”, which I’ll call the unawareness argument.
  \n
  To that end, this post will:
  \n
  - break down the unawareness argument at a high level;
  - explain why the EA community..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"Asn9cXBLumGiCJQ5g","core":false,"name":"Epistemology","slug":"epistemology","tagRel":{"_id":"5aDcFQ6eWfKsLyXMG","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":274,"description":"
    Epistemology is the study of how people should form credences about the nature of the world.
    Beliefs and credences are purely evaluative attitudes: they are simply about the way that we think the world is. A person might believe that it will rain, for exa..."},{"_id":"AfybZGoQ4qcPzqe5y","core":false,"name":"Decision theory","slug":"decision-theory","tagRel":{"_id":"wHsmddfPb7tpoLjd9","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":257,"description":"
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    Governments and philanthropists spend considerable resources attempting to do good in the world...."},{"_id":"iJZ7kpDhcpxXgdnoD","core":false,"name":"Cluelessness Critiques Week","slug":"cluelessness-critiques-week","tagRel":{"_id":"gnem74dfiydqHzWSf","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":34,"description":"
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    Last week, the Forum grappled with cluelessness. The volume of entries (76 essays!)^[1]—from newcomers^{..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"CF3HuBjWBDXgeTp9p","slug":"toby-tremlett","karma":10197,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":"EA Forum Product Lead","username":"tobytrem","createdAt":"2020-01-27T20:04:27.173+00:00","postCount":167,"displayName":"Toby Tremlett🔹","commentCount":872,"organization":"CEA","biographyHtml":"$76","profileImageId":"Profile/qnzba2ovzjxpeogdxuse"}],"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"iJZ7kpDhcpxXgdnoD","core":false,"name":"Cluelessness Critiques Week","slug":"cluelessness-critiques-week","tagRel":{"_id":"5vqWQt9xaxoyG9nmu","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":34,"description":"}
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    \"We have enormous opportunity to reduce suffering on behalf of sentient creatures [...], but even if we try our hardest, the future will still look very bleak.\" - Brian Tomasik
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    This personal post is not part of the competition, as my intent is not to produce an original constructive response to cluelessness. However, Toby Tremlett encouraged me to share it insofar as it contributes to this week's conversation.
    TL; DR: I work in animal welfare and am clueless...."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"4eyeLKC64Yvznzt6Z","core":true,"name":"Philosophy","slug":"philosophy","tagRel":{"_id":"gubg47u3qXzbKsYQs","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":3620,"description":"
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    I also do work in ethics, focusing on the moral importance of future generations.
    You can email me at thornley@mit.edu.
    "},"contents":{"wordCount":3133,"htmlHighlight":"
    This competition entry has been selected for publication by the Forum team.
    1. Introduction
    Here’s Anthony DiGiovanni’s unawareness argument, quoted from his summary post (footnotes omitted):
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    This competition entry has been selected for publication by the Forum team.
    The unawareness sequence by Anthony DiGiovanni argues that impartial altruists face a deep challenge when trying to compare the expected value of different strategies. We are not merely uncertain about which outcomes will occur, but many relevant outcomes are too coarsely represented, or not represented at all, in our current thinki..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"PWyyYHPfyiWhcyhtQ","slug":"magnusvinding","karma":2207,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":"Researcher","username":"MagnusVinding","createdAt":"2018-05-03T11:04:13.546+00:00","postCount":23,"displayName":"Magnus Vinding","commentCount":130,"organization":"Center for Reducing Suffering","biographyHtml":"
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    This competition entry has been selected for publication by the Forum team.
    Summary
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    We are sometimes uncertain about empirical facts, such as whether it will rain tomorrow. But we can also be uncertain about moral facts, suc..."}]},{"_id":"ZQhThndgHNXEKFdSx","slug":"cluelessness-critiques-week-discussion-thread","title":"Cluelessness Critiques Week: Discussion Thread","url":null,"baseScore":28,"voteCount":13,"commentCount":36,"postedAt":"2026-08-17T07:40:19.932Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2026-08-17T13:36:59.346Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":{"text":null,"imageId":"SocialPreview/uyiwi4ln7oprvpgpgqch"},"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/ZQhThndgHNXEKFdSx/fd6mok6voptz0zhspmui","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2026-11-05T12:31:43.392Z","sharingSettings":{"anyoneWithLinkCan":"none","explicitlySharedUsersCan":"comment"},"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"CF3HuBjWBDXgeTp9p","slug":"toby-tremlett","displayName":"Toby Tremlett🔹","username":"tobytrem","createdAt":"2020-01-27T20:04:27.173Z","profileImageId":"Profile/qnzba2ovzjxpeogdxuse","karma":10197,"jobTitle":"EA Forum Product Lead","organization":"CEA","postCount":167,"commentCount":872,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"$78"},"contents":{"wordCount":259,"htmlHighlight":"
    This week is Cluelessness Critiques Week on the EA Forum.
    We'll be publishing eligible entries^[1] to the Cluelessness Critiques Essay Competition on the Foru..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"Direa63BcP6pjAcFh","core":false,"name":"Cluelessness","slug":"cluelessness","tagRel":{"_id":"ry9FFZaQ7F9a4c2K8","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":166,"description":"
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    This competition entry has been selected for publication by the Forum team.
    Summary
    - Imprecise credence can leave multiple undominated options that the agent cannot think of as equally good.
    - The rule: when a rank leaves a comparison indeterminate, consult the next. Abstractly this is iterated maximality over a well-ordered sequence of relations. With lexical utilities and a representor, this can be represented as a matrix.
    - STP, Sen's alpha, and acycl..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"iJZ7kpDhcpxXgdnoD","core":false,"name":"Cluelessness Critiques Week","slug":"cluelessness-critiques-week","tagRel":{"_id":"9csCib5aCwpSmZvk4","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":34,"description":"
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      In philosophy, cluelessness refers to radical uncertainty about whether any given action is preferable to any other, from an impartial perspective (i.e., considering all the possible consequences of both actions)...."},{"_id":"AfybZGoQ4qcPzqe5y","core":false,"name":"Decision theory","slug":"decision-theory","tagRel":{"_id":"hkaoFNBbwE2tXNWae","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":257,"description":"
      Decision theory is the study of rational decision-making under conditions of empirical uncertainty.
      Decision theory is normative: it provides us with a means of assessing decisions, and guidance on how to make the best decisions. The goal is not necessarily to show how real-life agents actually make decisions, which is exp..."},{"_id":"eHxvmKaeQCJ6EpAXZ","core":false,"name":"Decision-theoretic uncertainty","slug":"decision-theoretic-uncertainty","tagRel":{"_id":"iQGdf8timrt8ERHh9","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":28,"description":"
      Decision-theoretic uncertainty is uncertainty surrounding the correct decision theory. It is a type of normative uncertainty.
      Further reading
      MacAskill, William (2016)..."},{"_id":"DatwbfA8aYEYFMeif","core":false,"name":"Expected value","slug":"expected-value","tagRel":{"_id":"ZdDnr2BvmfqgxoHYk","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":107,"description":"
      The expected value of an act is the sum of the value of each of its possible outcomes multiplied by their probability of occurring.
      Illustration
      Consider a person choosing between two medical interventions. The first intervention is a drug that succeeds in 60% of cases, and that gives an extra year of healthy life..."},{"_id":"iycC2QnTTg6XiQo6G","core":false,"name":"Consequentialism","slug":"consequentialism","tagRel":{"_id":"RPGnTsB2b46vSBTCY","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":95,"description":"
      Consequentialism is the normative theory according to which the rightness of an act is determined solely by the goodness of its consequences.
      Combining consequentialism with welfarism—the view that well-being is the only source of value—yields..."}]},{"_id":"LiicMNNYiLpocw3wZ","slug":"clarifying-some-misunderstandings-of-the-unawareness","title":"Clarifying some misunderstandings of the unawareness argument","url":null,"baseScore":22,"voteCount":8,"commentCount":0,"postedAt":"2026-09-01T22:35:24.545Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2026-09-02T15:22:56.892Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2026-09-01T22:35:24.545Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"TMeHPKbbgoh6i9yvC","slug":"anthony-digiovanni","displayName":"Anthony DiGiovanni 🔸","username":"antimonyanthony","createdAt":"2017-09-12T14:40:59.104Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":2710,"jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":19,"commentCount":340,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"
      Researcher at the Center on Long-Term Risk. All opinions my own.
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      Thanks again to everyone who participated in the Cluelessness Critiques Competition!
      Across several entries to the competition, I noticed a few important misunderstandings of my argument for cluelessness from unawareness (the..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"AfybZGoQ4qcPzqe5y","core":false,"name":"Decision theory","slug":"decision-theory","tagRel":{"_id":"5sjqy6ukwMnyuiuha","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":257,"description":"
      Decision theory is the study of rational decision-making under conditions of empirical uncertainty.
      Decision theory is normative: it provides us with a means of assessing decisions, and guidance on how to make the best decisions. The goal is not necessarily to show how real-life agents actually make decisions, which is exp..."},{"_id":"DatwbfA8aYEYFMeif","core":false,"name":"Expected value","slug":"expected-value","tagRel":{"_id":"io73isckwuQ534Eae","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":107,"description":"
      The expected value of an act is the sum of the value of each of its possible outcomes multiplied by their probability of occurring.
      Illustration
      Consider a person choosing between two medical interventions. The first intervention is a drug that succeeds in 60% of cases, and that gives an extra year of healthy life..."},{"_id":"oEvBquSzz56ts7pEn","core":false,"name":"Moral philosophy","slug":"moral-philosophy","tagRel":{"_id":"GyaQxdu8rsucM2cD5","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":970,"description":"
      Moral philosophy is discussed in effective altruism for a number of different reasons.
      In some cases, discussions about moral philosophy focus on related topics like:
      How can one..."},{"_id":"eHxvmKaeQCJ6EpAXZ","core":false,"name":"Decision-theoretic uncertainty","slug":"decision-theoretic-uncertainty","tagRel":{"_id":"XZjFdJ2zMmWXLPqn4","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":28,"description":"
      Decision-theoretic uncertainty is uncertainty surrounding the correct decision theory. It is a type of normative uncertainty.
      Further reading
      MacAskill, William (2016)..."},{"_id":"iJZ7kpDhcpxXgdnoD","core":false,"name":"Cluelessness Critiques Week","slug":"cluelessness-critiques-week","tagRel":{"_id":"BCeJypurepowFn6sy","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":34,"description":"
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      In philosophy, cluelessness refers to radical uncertainty about whether any given action is preferable to any other, from an impartial perspective (i.e., considering all the possible consequences of both actions)...."},{"_id":"Asn9cXBLumGiCJQ5g","core":false,"name":"Epistemology","slug":"epistemology","tagRel":{"_id":"4uDvPbkBBQzYWckMb","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":274,"description":"
      Epistemology is the study of how people should form credences about the nature of the world.
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      Non-EA interests include chess and TikTok (@benthamite). Formerly @ CEA, METR + a couple now-acquired startups.
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      This competition entry has been selected for publication by the Forum team.
      tl;dr
      I consider the problem of “unawareness”: that “many possible consequences of our actions haven’t even occurred to us in much detail, if at all”, calling into question our ability to choose actions based on their possible consequences. I suggest modeling unawareness as arising from a lack of computational resources, specifically that even if I know relevant facts, the full implications of..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"iJZ7kpDhcpxXgdnoD","core":false,"name":"Cluelessness Critiques Week","slug":"cluelessness-critiques-week","tagRel":{"_id":"7kA7Gc9BcLM2bGZ7B","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":34,"description":"
      Cluelessness Critiques Week (August 17–23, 2026) is an EA Forum event focused on discussing critiques of and responses to Anthony DiGiovanni’s The challenge of unawareness for impartial altruist action guidance sequence. This topic is for selected entri..."},{"_id":"4eyeLKC64Yvznzt6Z","core":true,"name":"Philosophy","slug":"philosophy","tagRel":{"_id":"pQLQvTq7zSXP68wyX","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":3620,"description":"
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      In philosophy, cluelessness refers to radical uncertainty about whether any given action is preferable to any other, from an impartial perspective (i.e., considering all the possible consequences of both actions)...."},{"_id":"AfybZGoQ4qcPzqe5y","core":false,"name":"Decision theory","slug":"decision-theory","tagRel":{"_id":"q8WFSvcK49chnPfCL","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":257,"description":"
      Decision theory is the study of rational decision-making under conditions of empirical uncertainty.
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      Bayesian epistemology (sometimes referred to as Bayesianism) is the broader epistemology informed by Bayes' theorem.
      Further reading
      LessWrong (2020)..."},{"_id":"DatwbfA8aYEYFMeif","core":false,"name":"Expected value","slug":"expected-value","tagRel":{"_id":"D3N7GKiZwhJyByeb9","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":107,"description":"
      The expected value of an act is the sum of the value of each of its possible outcomes multiplied by their probability of occurring.
      Illustration
      Consider a person choosing between two medical interventions. The first intervention is a drug that succeeds in 60% of cases, and that gives an extra year of healthy life..."},{"_id":"Asn9cXBLumGiCJQ5g","core":false,"name":"Epistemology","slug":"epistemology","tagRel":{"_id":"B33g2ykdtqWNs6qFr","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":274,"description":"
      Epistemology is the study of how people should form credences about the nature of the world.
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      I'm a computational physicist, I generally donate to global health. I am skeptical of AI x-risk and of big R Rationalism, and I intend on explaining why in great detail.
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      This competition entry has been selected for publication by the Forum team.
      Introduction
      Our uncertainty about the future is vast. Unfathomably vast.
      Imagine that only 1 in a million people on the planet will make decisions that impact the future, and that these 8000 people will only make 1 such yes/no decision in their lifetimes. With this very simple model, the number of potential futures is 2^8000 or approximately 10^2408. And that’s just for the people currently..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"iJZ7kpDhcpxXgdnoD","core":false,"name":"Cluelessness Critiques Week","slug":"cluelessness-critiques-week","tagRel":{"_id":"9LySi5cwuy5Cw7aE9","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":34,"description":"
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      Criticism of longtermism and existential risk studies collects critical discussions of longtermism and existential risk studies.
      Further reading
      Melchin, Denise (2021)..."},{"_id":"Direa63BcP6pjAcFh","core":false,"name":"Cluelessness","slug":"cluelessness","tagRel":{"_id":"sPNhEtzs8AhZP3aax","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":166,"description":"
      In philosophy, cluelessness refers to radical uncertainty about whether any given action is preferable to any other, from an impartial perspective (i.e., considering all the possible consequences of both actions)...."},{"_id":"t2L2RziMDLEuHBWNF","core":false,"name":"Longtermism","slug":"longtermism","tagRel":{"_id":"ceCrrD2u2vaoPjhj2","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":1071,"description":"
      Longtermism is the view that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time.^[1]..."},{"_id":"FdbA8vts5JPKCEou8","core":false,"name":"Long-term future","slug":"long-term-future","tagRel":{"_id":"6haEkgo9kG4FRwe9j","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":303,"description":"
      The long-term future focuses on possible ways in which the future of humanity may unfold over long timescales.
      Bostrom's typology of possible scenarios
      Nick Bostrom has identified four broad possibilities for the future of humanity...."},{"_id":"ee66CtAMYurQreWBH","core":true,"name":"Existential risk","slug":"existential-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"W9EikPMKfSiHhfDRt","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":4381,"description":"
      An existential risk is a risk that threatens the destruction of the long-term potential of life.^[1] An existential risk could threaten the..."},{"_id":"Asn9cXBLumGiCJQ5g","core":false,"name":"Epistemology","slug":"epistemology","tagRel":{"_id":"dP8qyM3vxyDJcbzfr","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":274,"description":"
      Epistemology is the study of how people should form credences about the nature of the world.
      Beliefs and credences are purely evaluative attitudes: they are simply about the way that we think the world is. A person might believe that it will rain, for exa..."}]},{"_id":"7yrwPySYdzmzKepre","slug":"comments-on-the-summary-of-the-unawareness-argument","title":"Comments on the summary of the unawareness argument","url":null,"baseScore":18,"voteCount":11,"commentCount":11,"postedAt":"2026-08-17T07:52:26.837Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2026-08-17T13:37:25.471Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/7yrwPySYdzmzKepre/eudgedwuerhlgw9v4dh7","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2026-08-25T10:14:38.751Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"YRCdk7cvPT6pyiph9","slug":"nunosempere","displayName":"NunoSempere","username":"NunoSempere","createdAt":"2018-11-15T15:52:18.347Z","profileImageId":"Profile/k878ddoduabhtngbawob","karma":13987,"jobTitle":"Director, Head of Foresight","organization":"Sentinel","postCount":107,"commentCount":1294,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"$79"},"contents":{"wordCount":2644,"htmlHighlight":"
      This competition entry has been selected for publication by the Forum team.
      Here are some comments on the Summary of the argument.
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TL;DR

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1. Introduction

Further reading

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External links

Further reading

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My soft critique of the unawareness argument, in a nutshell

Further reading

Summary

Further reading

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Further reading

tl;dr

Further reading

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Introduction

Further reading

Bostrom's typology of possible scenarios

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