7a:I[392826,["$2","$3","$4","$5","$6","$7","$8","$9","$a","$b","$c","$d","$e","$f","$2c","$2d"],"default"] 7b:I[836637,["$2","$3","$4","$5","$6","$7","$8","$9","$a","$b","$c","$d","$e","$f","$2c","$2d"],"default"] 7c:T887,

I'm a researcher at Forethought; before that, I ran the non-engineering side of the EA Forum (this platform), ran the EA Newsletter, and worked on some other content-related tasks at CEA. [More about the Forum/CEA Online job.]

Selected posts

Background

I finished my undergraduate studies with a double major in mathematics and comparative literature in 2021. I was a research fellow at Rethink Priorities in the summer of 2021 and was then hired by the Events Team at CEA. I later switched to the Online Team. In the past, I've also done some (math) research and worked at Canada/USA Mathcamp.

7d:T145f,

I run Sentinel, a team that seeks to anticipate and respond to large-scale risks. You can read our weekly minutes here. I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and generally becoming more formidable. I'm also a fairly good forecaster: I started out on predicting on Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell, but now do most of my forecasting through Samotsvety, of which Scott Alexander writes:

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

7e:T145f,

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

7f:T145f,

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

6e:["$","$L2f",null,{"pageSectionContext":"tagsSection","children":["$","div",null,{"data-component":"TopicPostsList","children":[["$","div",null,{"data-component":"SectionTitle","className":"flex items-center justify-between mb-1 min-h-8","children":[["$","div",null,{"id":"posts-tagged-impact-assessment","ref":"$undefined","style":"$undefined","className":"font-sans text-[13px] font-[700] leading-[16px] uppercase text-gray-600 ","data-component":"Type","data-style":"sectionTitleSmall","children":"Posts tagged Impact assessment"}],["$","div",null,{"children":["$","$L7a",null,{"sortedBy":"top"}]}]]}],["$","$L7b","top",{"tagId":"CDEKHTGHAqLcJPw5A","tagName":"Impact assessment","sortedBy":"top","initialPosts":[{"_id":"42reWndoTEhFqu6T8","slug":"ai-governance-opportunity-and-theory-of-impact","title":"AI Governance: Opportunity and Theory of Impact","url":null,"baseScore":265,"voteCount":142,"commentCount":22,"postedAt":"2020-09-17T06:30:01.867Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2020-09-17T09:20:50.745Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2026-04-25T23:17:07.321Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"qHoNMjDkajJyYp8wH","slug":"allan-dafoe","displayName":"Allan Dafoe","username":"AllanDafoe","createdAt":"2020-09-14T13:52:30.443Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":328,"jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":1,"commentCount":1,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"

Director, Centre for the Governance of AI at the Future of Humanity Institute

\n"},"contents":{"wordCount":3609,"htmlHighlight":"

AI governance concerns how humanity can best navigate the transition to a world with advanced AI systems.^[1] It relates to how decisions are made about AI,^[2] and what institutions and arrangements would help those decisions to be made well.

I believe advances in AI are likely t..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"uCPFdnpD6e4CCX8nC","core":false,"name":"Research methods","slug":"research-methods","tagRel":{"_id":"52KNNtrAJqCmt2xru","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":265,"description":"

Use the research methods tag for posts about how to conduct better research.

The tag can also be used for posts that present their research in such an exemplary way that a reader could learn about effective research methods simply by reading them.

For posts about improving research methods done in science, use the..."},{"_id":"iW9mRiqT3xvmaCbHz","core":false,"name":"International relations","slug":"international-relations","tagRel":{"_id":"79FcJvrLGk6aboQMH","voteType":null,"baseScore":6},"postCount":165,"description":"

International relations is the study of the relations of states with each other and with international organizations and other units in the international system.

Fu..."},{"_id":"DwJY53daQyQq8eWo7","core":false,"name":"Armed conflict","slug":"armed-conflict","tagRel":{"_id":"FsfFentxvCpwiRJnC","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":138,"description":"
The armed conflict tag is for posts about interstate or intrastate violence between armed groups, the drivers of such conflicts, and interventions to reduce the frequency or severity of such conflicts.

What is the Forum P..."},{"_id":"of9xBvR3wpbp6qsZC","core":true,"name":"Policy","slug":"policy","tagRel":{"_id":"tFbRkcAjG7noXxnF5","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":3264,"description":"
The policy topic is very broad, covering any post about improving government policy (in developing and developed countries alike).
Improving policy
Governments are typically committed to the notion that their policies should be effective. This means that members of the effective altruist community can be in a good..."},{"_id":"CDEKHTGHAqLcJPw5A","core":false,"name":"Impact assessment","slug":"impact-assessment","tagRel":{"_id":"yZAEncRG5aHd76QiP","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":260,"description":"
Impact assessment is a structured process for evaluating the impact of an intervention. Impact assessments can focus on an intervention's expected impact (ex-ante or prospective impact assessment) or on its actual impact (ex-post or retrospective impact assessment)...."},{"_id":"nuxik9xjkg3P6JzMz","core":false,"name":"Value erosion","slug":"value-erosion","tagRel":{"_id":"fJAoyYmP8F7pCdmsf","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":8,"description":"
Value erosion refers to a process by which competitive dynamics could eventually lead to \"the proliferation of forms of life (countries, companies, autonomous AIs) which lock-in bad values\", if those forms of life outcompete others (..."},{"_id":"oNiQsBHA3i837sySD","core":true,"name":"AI safety","slug":"ai-safety","tagRel":{"_id":"HAT4dMzdsueFaYXxe","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":7288,"description":"
AI safety is the study of ways to reduce risks posed by artificial intelligence.
Interventions that aim to reduce these risks can be split into:
Technical alignment..."},{"_id":"4FDyuFrgeFEtvnhqh","core":false,"name":"Centre for the Governance of AI","slug":"centre-for-the-governance-of-ai","tagRel":{"_id":"Qm5JCcLbYug7mZ4Kz","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":21,"description":"
The Centre for the Governance of AI (GovAI) is an AI governance research center.
History
GovAI was founded in 2018, as part of the Future of Humanity..."},{"_id":"EHLmbEmJ2Qd5WfwTb","core":true,"name":"Building effective altruism","slug":"building-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"swu2Hwif3gF2Zt6DP","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":7853,"description":"
Building effective altruism refers to the family of interventions aimed at growing, shaping, or otherwise improving effective altruism as a practical and intellectual community.
Examples of building effective altruism include starting..."}]},{"_id":"DiGL5FuLgWActPBsf","slug":"how-much-should-governments-pay-to-prevent-catastrophes","title":"How much should governments pay to prevent catastrophes? Longtermism’s limited role","url":"https://philpapers.org/archive/SHUHMS.pdf","baseScore":258,"voteCount":85,"commentCount":35,"postedAt":"2023-03-19T16:50:00.598Z","curatedDate":"2023-03-21T11:35:08.862Z","frontpageDate":"2023-03-20T05:11:53.775Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":{"imageId":"SocialPreview/wnbbm9dek7yxhhmijxxf"},"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/jpjvUpKtfdQGiwWP0VBlHqu0x0RSaYtq_-BcElzJUjAVuQIxLXraaZ1G8z72EPvyWHzFPSsH-GTJ6F1vNpQJswg2FdE9pudKXS87HQUKVhyHUH8ltMwLSPHjebvaii4TSZfqt1UM27ceNB4DWxLtlwE","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2023-05-26T15:51:04.679Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"E8qrx4Re7QBovd3ah","slug":"elliott-thornley","displayName":"Elliott Thornley","username":"elliottthornley","createdAt":"2020-12-18T09:37:38.239Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":1240,"jobTitle":"Postdoc","organization":"MIT","postCount":16,"commentCount":105,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"
I work on AI alignment. Right now, I'm using ideas from decision theory to design and train safer artificial agents.
I also do work in ethics, focusing on the moral importance of future generations.
You can email me at thornley@mit.edu.
"},"contents":{"wordCount":10586,"htmlHighlight":"
Preamble
We use standard cost-benefit analysis (CBA) to argue that governments should do more to reduce global catastrophic risk.
We argue that getting governments to adopt a CBA-driven catastrophe policy should be the goal of longtermists in the political sphere.
We suggest that longtermism can play a supplementary role in government catastrophe policy. If and when present people are willing to pay for interventions aimed primarily at improving humanity's long-te..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"Ng9dxDSsc5uK4Zsmx","slug":"carlshulman","karma":5713,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"CarlShulman","createdAt":"2014-08-21T01:29:49.479+00:00","postCount":6,"displayName":"CarlShulman","commentCount":387,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":null,"profileImageId":null}],"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"H43gvLzBCacxxamPe","core":true,"name":"Biosecurity","slug":"biosecurity","tagRel":{"_id":"GbRBXFJL7iynXKY9k","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":1593,"description":"
Biosecurity covers the procedures, practices and other measures used to manage risks from biological agents (e.g. viruses, bacteria) or their products (e.g. toxins).
Terminology
The term \"biosecurity\" has different meanings in different contexts. As a few examples:
In agriculture, biosecurity usually ref..."},{"_id":"oNiQsBHA3i837sySD","core":true,"name":"AI safety","slug":"ai-safety","tagRel":{"_id":"mm5EqfLqaBSjcwNxF","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":7288,"description":"
AI safety is the study of ways to reduce risks posed by artificial intelligence.
Interventions that aim to reduce these risks can be split into:
Technical alignment..."},{"_id":"wPjsmKwAoW8XhBEzE","core":false,"name":"Carl Shulman","slug":"carl-shulman","tagRel":{"_id":"ofqjgffkP7FHxBJYJ","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":21,"description":"
Carl Matthew Shulman (born ca. 1982) is a Canadian-American researcher. He is currently a Research Associate at the Future of Humanity Institute and an Advisor to Open Philanthrop..."},{"_id":"ee66CtAMYurQreWBH","core":true,"name":"Existential risk","slug":"existential-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"MkbBc4dvPRncSNgDm","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":4372,"description":"
An existential risk is a risk that threatens the destruction of the long-term potential of life.[1] An existential risk could threaten the..."},{"_id":"pmALcrKQBDgFMyqqt","core":false,"name":"Global catastrophic risk","slug":"global-catastrophic-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"mDAydMKdmxcCqmYjX","voteType":null,"baseScore":6},"postCount":301,"description":"
A global catastrophic risk (GCR) is an event that poses a risk of major harm on a global scale.^[1]
GCRs risks include, but are not restricted to,..."},{"_id":"Fm9Jpm3Z9Y3aezDv7","core":false,"name":"Cost-benefit analysis","slug":"cost-benefit-analysis","tagRel":{"_id":"hQo5ZrWcNCFkz69m6","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":52,"description":"
Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is a collection of methods for evaluating the social costs and benefits of alternative social arrangements.
Cost-benefit analysis estimates the ratio between the cost and the benefit of the intervention. Interventions with a lower ratio are said to provide a higher return. Cost-..."},{"_id":"t2L2RziMDLEuHBWNF","core":false,"name":"Longtermism","slug":"longtermism","tagRel":{"_id":"gJhwvsL8FzJhyFDrD","voteType":null,"baseScore":6},"postCount":1069,"description":"
Longtermism is the view that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time.^[1]..."},{"_id":"of9xBvR3wpbp6qsZC","core":true,"name":"Policy","slug":"policy","tagRel":{"_id":"as4zRugAhqv3jXP5n","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":3264,"description":"
The policy topic is very broad, covering any post about improving government policy (in developing and developed countries alike).
Improving policy
Governments are typically committed to the notion that their policies should be effective. This means that members of the effective altruist community can be in a good..."},{"_id":"CDEKHTGHAqLcJPw5A","core":false,"name":"Impact assessment","slug":"impact-assessment","tagRel":{"_id":"B4BmiDecGHr4ofHuc","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":260,"description":"
Impact assessment is a structured process for evaluating the impact of an intervention. Impact assessments can focus on an intervention's expected impact (ex-ante or prospective impact assessment) or on its actual impact (ex-post or retrospective impact assessment)...."},{"_id":"psBzwdY8ipfCeExJ7","core":true,"name":"Cause prioritization","slug":"cause-prioritization","tagRel":{"_id":"drRFZYFe5eQaZ5Zsu","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":4101,"description":"
Cause prioritization refers to efforts to find the most pressing problems to work on and compare interventions across different cause areas so that we can do as much good as possible with the resources available to us.
Governments and philanthropists spend considerable resources attempting to do good in the world...."},{"_id":"uCPFdnpD6e4CCX8nC","core":false,"name":"Research methods","slug":"research-methods","tagRel":{"_id":"tTfBJvwWNZHBsvJ5w","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":265,"description":"
Use the research methods tag for posts about how to conduct better research.
The tag can also be used for posts that present their research in such an exemplary way that a reader could learn about effective research methods simply by reading them.
For posts about improving research methods done in science, use the..."},{"_id":"uDAGFwZLscHKfoubc","core":false,"name":"Improving institutional decision-making","slug":"improving-institutional-decision-making","tagRel":{"_id":"aeLtoPkCqL9Thszyi","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":326,"description":"
Improving institutional decision-making is a cause that focuses on increasing the technical quality and effective altruism alignment of the most important decisions made by the world’s most important decision-making bodies...."},{"_id":"KdxaNG2Fwkgh4ywFm","core":false,"name":"Nuclear security","slug":"nuclear-security","tagRel":{"_id":"ZJYabNHiWvhpSWvL8","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":291,"description":"
Nuclear security is the set of procedures, practices or other measures used to manage risks from nuclear weapons and other nuclear materials.
Nuclear war is potentially the primary near-term..."}]},{"_id":"7yN7SKPpL3zN7yfcM","slug":"why-i-m-concerned-about-giving-green","title":"Why I'm concerned about Giving Green","url":null,"baseScore":231,"voteCount":104,"commentCount":49,"postedAt":"2021-01-20T22:59:20.608Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2021-01-21T02:00:52.119Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/XV8T5tjF2xX-rLQ6ciMVQtIhZKAsxMnJveTK5hZGvZ8v8K8fq0mZI3LQyAKNc30OfXZdB_PzulfzleQEWh5qGjx3zSCRyfz7xPZjZ5eKLHTiM4mqNRV50lxOj7GqCMzn1JxszdAw","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2022-01-11T12:35:21.295Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"DtD3NrwvWx5mdaG6a","slug":"alex-lawsen-previously-alexrjl","displayName":"alex lawsen","username":"alexrjl","createdAt":"2018-11-12T21:58:07.226Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":3728,"jobTitle":null,"organization":"Open Philanthropy","postCount":17,"commentCount":367,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"
I work on AI Grantmaking at Open Philanthropy. Comments here are posted in a personal capacity.
"},"contents":{"wordCount":3922,"htmlHighlight":"
Disclosure
I am a forecaster, and occasional independent researcher. I also work in a volunteer capacity for SoGive, which has included some analysis of the climate space in order to provide advice to some individual donors interested in this area. This work has involved ~20 hours of conference calls over the last year with d..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"atHNNgekWbYdWASjk","core":false,"name":"Founders Pledge","slug":"founders-pledge","tagRel":{"_id":"8uhCn8mQHjHYhyCRz","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":73,"description":"
Founders Pledge is a nonprofit that encourages entrepreneurs to pledge to donate a portion of their profits to effective charities, and conducts..."},{"_id":"X3KB4vCDhbRrC4qTP","core":false,"name":"Forum Prize","slug":"forum-prize","tagRel":{"_id":"QBak9hyAnCvnK3CgC","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":136,"description":"
The Forum Prize tag is used for posts that won the EA Forum Prize, as well as posts that announce the winning posts and comments.
For posts awarding an independent prize, use the Prize tag.
What is the Forum P..."},{"_id":"CDEKHTGHAqLcJPw5A","core":false,"name":"Impact assessment","slug":"impact-assessment","tagRel":{"_id":"SfALSYMwArCBCzQmy","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":260,"description":"
Impact assessment is a structured process for evaluating the impact of an intervention. Impact assessments can focus on an intervention's expected impact (ex-ante or prospective impact assessment) or on its actual impact (ex-post or retrospective impact assessment)...."},{"_id":"sYwHfprY3qxc5ZG3r","core":false,"name":"Ambitious Impact","slug":"ambitious-impact","tagRel":{"_id":"Tc7aGaYZ2bKEPi9sh","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":200,"description":"
Ambitious Impact (AIM), formerly known as Charity Entrepreneurship, is an organization that runs in-depth training and incubation programs to prepare individuals for high-impact roles.
Their Charity Entrepreneurship incubation program launches high-impact nonprofits by..."},{"_id":"Fi2msh65RjSDaEDxx","core":false,"name":"Climate change","slug":"climate-change","tagRel":{"_id":"dtwk8HtjXJocDimaK","voteType":null,"baseScore":7},"postCount":496,"description":"
In the sense that matters most for effective altruism, climate change refers to large-scale shifts in weather patterns that result from emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane largely from fossil fuel consumption. Climate change has..."},{"_id":"tE5BRNibhQogNJExQ","core":false,"name":"Criticism of effective altruist organizations","slug":"criticism-of-effective-altruist-organizations","tagRel":{"_id":"L5K5cTYeen42GEYsC","voteType":null,"baseScore":11},"postCount":290,"description":"
The criticism of effective altruist organizations tag can apply to at least two kinds of posts:
Posts criticizing the actions/strategy of a particular EA organization (or multiple orgs)
Posts written by EA orgs or their representatives, if users have written critical comments responding to those posts
..."},{"_id":"EHLmbEmJ2Qd5WfwTb","core":true,"name":"Building effective altruism","slug":"building-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"xaFBAjGZDHZGTmza9","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":7853,"description":"
Building effective altruism refers to the family of interventions aimed at growing, shaping, or otherwise improving effective altruism as a practical and intellectual community.
Examples of building effective altruism include starting..."},{"_id":"psBzwdY8ipfCeExJ7","core":true,"name":"Cause prioritization","slug":"cause-prioritization","tagRel":{"_id":"uBBrE9veoND9JhwqA","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":4101,"description":"
Cause prioritization refers to efforts to find the most pressing problems to work on and compare interventions across different cause areas so that we can do as much good as possible with the resources available to us.
Governments and philanthropists spend considerable resources attempting to do good in the world...."},{"_id":"iC8So3aRmfXcgiDK6","core":false,"name":"Giving Green","slug":"giving-green","tagRel":{"_id":"xn7xpqwwNdMoNuu9p","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":21,"description":"
Giving Green is a charity evaluator focused on climate change. It was incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship...."},{"_id":"yauh4AaKZcmRKdzFb","core":false,"name":"Criticism of work in effective altruism","slug":"criticism-of-work-in-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"BmYnPqDqGEGztZmim","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":223,"description":"
The Criticism of work in effective altruism tag applies to posts critically examining the work, projects, or methodologies of specific individuals, organizations, or initiatives affiliated with the effective altruism (EA) movement or community.
Related tags
..."},{"_id":"jqCNhCb3cgaWPfhq8","core":false,"name":"SoGive","slug":"sogive","tagRel":{"_id":"TrcddeQbZRBDXSdZ2","voteType":null,"baseScore":10},"postCount":44,"description":"
SoGive is a nonprofit charity evaluator. They keep an online list of charities that have been analyzed and rated, allowing donors to compare the estimated impact of each one.
Further reading
Righetti, Luca & Fin Moorhouse (2020)..."}]},{"_id":"YgbpxJmEdFhFGpqci","slug":"winners-of-the-ea-criticism-and-red-teaming-contest","title":"Winners of the EA Criticism and Red Teaming Contest","url":null,"baseScore":227,"voteCount":96,"commentCount":42,"postedAt":"2022-10-01T01:50:09.257Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2022-10-01T08:36:15.269Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/YgbpxJmEdFhFGpqci/qki5sei7bn0yllbisvw6","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2026-02-03T09:45:47.306Z","sharingSettings":{"anyoneWithLinkCan":"none","explicitlySharedUsersCan":"comment"},"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"SuPnfB9qqKWsucNzm","slug":"lizka","displayName":"Lizka","username":"Lizka","createdAt":"2019-11-06T06:22:18.538Z","profileImageId":"Profile/llwmfw62hcsq2vuk1n7g","karma":18091,"jobTitle":"Researcher","organization":"Forethought","postCount":154,"commentCount":581,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"$7c"},"contents":{"wordCount":5670,"htmlHighlight":"
We’re excited to announce the winners of the EA Criticism and Red Teaming Contest. We had 341 submissions and are awarding $120,000 in prizes to our top 31 entries.
We^[1] set out with the primary ..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"DyzHp5KY2tuLHDPZX","slug":"owen_cotton-barratt","karma":11013,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"Owen_Cotton-Barratt","createdAt":"2014-08-21T01:29:43.291+00:00","postCount":75,"displayName":"Owen Cotton-Barratt","commentCount":997,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":null,"profileImageId":null}],"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"ihpwNfh2ZxR4ZHaAK","core":false,"name":"Prizes and contests","slug":"prizes-and-contests","tagRel":{"_id":"3J2aurc5oqiY3J9rw","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":170,"description":"
A prize is something of value given to reward success in a contest or to recognize outstanding achievement. Prizes have been proposed as an alternative to existing methods for incentivizing innovation, such as patents and grants.^{..."},{"_id":"EHXNGqENrziYQJsox","core":false,"name":"AI forecasting","slug":"ai-forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"AiojgbtRM4FxEEwP9","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":544,"description":"}
AI forecasting is the process of trying to predict a variety of outcomes related to AI, such as when human-level AI will emerge (AI timelines) and what impacts it will have.
Further reading
Cotra, Ajeya (2020) ..."},{"_id":"ui3ZZqd23HzA7wNwP","core":false,"name":"Criticism of effective altruist causes","slug":"criticism-of-effective-altruist-causes","tagRel":{"_id":"DWfHvAGCiNzbZxaji","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":242,"description":"
The criticism of effective altruist causes tag covers posts that criticize popular claims about the importance of a given cause area, or an idea within that area. They don't have to be critical of the area as a whole — just one or more popular ideas related to the area.
Related entries
..."},{"_id":"CDEKHTGHAqLcJPw5A","core":false,"name":"Impact assessment","slug":"impact-assessment","tagRel":{"_id":"J2sHCA5RGGg9poZyr","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":260,"description":"
Impact assessment is a structured process for evaluating the impact of an intervention. Impact assessments can focus on an intervention's expected impact (ex-ante or prospective impact assessment) or on its actual impact (ex-post or retrospective impact assessment)...."},{"_id":"SM397hQ6A9wiDrD3e","core":false,"name":"Population ethics","slug":"population-ethics","tagRel":{"_id":"MWrGrqnFeLjshGccF","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":215,"description":"
Population ethics is the branch of normative ethics that attempts to justify and articulate principles for making choices between alternatives involving different people. These differences can consist of changes either in the number of people affected or only in the identities of these people...."},{"_id":"tE5BRNibhQogNJExQ","core":false,"name":"Criticism of effective altruist organizations","slug":"criticism-of-effective-altruist-organizations","tagRel":{"_id":"SyuRuDEfis7bhY8db","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":290,"description":"
The criticism of effective altruist organizations tag can apply to at least two kinds of posts:
Posts criticizing the actions/strategy of a particular EA organization (or multiple orgs)
Posts written by EA orgs or their representatives, if users have written critical comments responding to those posts
..."},{"_id":"mxyrHDrmiYq3MR6oD","core":false,"name":"Writing advice","slug":"writing-advice","tagRel":{"_id":"WCsmLEo6JMxb7rfxZ","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":83,"description":"
This topic or tag is for discussions about how to write better.
Related entries
writing advice | types of post and content |..."},{"_id":"gP4rpeK3CoE7mfrxK","core":false,"name":"Criticism of longtermism and existential risk studies","slug":"criticism-of-longtermism-and-existential-risk-studies","tagRel":{"_id":"kwjMzAH6kRwe3f7Bq","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":180,"description":"
Criticism of longtermism and existential risk studies collects critical discussions of longtermism and existential risk studies.
Further reading
Melchin, Denise (2021)..."},{"_id":"C4WsLjWE4epWfu493","core":false,"name":"Discussion norms","slug":"discussion-norms","tagRel":{"_id":"ynmBRhqC2R7fsm6YS","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":206,"description":"
The discussion norms tag covers posts that suggest or promote norms around how people ought to hold discussions within the effective altruism community.
Further reading
Vaintrob, Lizka (2022)..."},{"_id":"psBzwdY8ipfCeExJ7","core":true,"name":"Cause prioritization","slug":"cause-prioritization","tagRel":{"_id":"Y49s2FTaWa8GAYNAR","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":4101,"description":"
Cause prioritization refers to efforts to find the most pressing problems to work on and compare interventions across different cause areas so that we can do as much good as possible with the resources available to us.
Governments and philanthropists spend considerable resources attempting to do good in the world...."},{"_id":"aJnrnnobcBNWRsfAw","core":true,"name":"Forecasting","slug":"forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"kZFRdwjeq8RMBX36J","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2083,"description":"
Forecasting is an important tool for improving the future, because good forecasts and estimates can help us appropriately plan interventions and assess risks. Over the past several decades there has been significant research and investment in forecasting and estimation techniques, tools, and organizations. This continues to be a..."},{"_id":"ee66CtAMYurQreWBH","core":true,"name":"Existential risk","slug":"existential-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"MYTNhg3xfwEcuFcE3","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":4372,"description":"
An existential risk is a risk that threatens the destruction of the long-term potential of life.^[1] An existential risk could threaten the..."},{"_id":"4eyeLKC64Yvznzt6Z","core":true,"name":"Philosophy","slug":"philosophy","tagRel":{"_id":"dRCJgJu2nLzbzvrZC","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":3606,"description":"
Philosophy is a field oriented towards investigating the most general and abstract features of the world. In effective altruism, discussions often focus on moral philosophy in particular. Work in effective altruism often raises questi..."},{"_id":"EHLmbEmJ2Qd5WfwTb","core":true,"name":"Building effective altruism","slug":"building-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"mXFDqunjHgAgFrAJp","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":7853,"description":"
Building effective altruism refers to the family of interventions aimed at growing, shaping, or otherwise improving effective altruism as a practical and intellectual community.
Examples of building effective altruism include starting..."},{"_id":"sSZ8pCvackwaY9vBx","core":false,"name":"Criticism of effective altruism","slug":"criticism-of-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"cCaN3znuuhkQGQbug","voteType":null,"baseScore":9},"postCount":597,"description":"
Criticism of effective altruism collects critical discussion of effective altruism ideas (as opposed to criticism of effective altruist organizations,..."},{"_id":"aEfhhqymeFsdhDQLk","core":false,"name":"Criticism and Red Teaming Contest","slug":"criticism-and-red-teaming-contest","tagRel":{"_id":"x695PGfpneLx79aNR","voteType":null,"baseScore":27},"postCount":283,"description":"
The Criticism and Red Teaming Contest is a contest on the Effective Altruism Forum for writing that critically engages with theory or work from the effective altruism community..."},{"_id":"tRqH8tbgwDNpcMyGP","core":false,"name":"Red teaming","slug":"red-teaming","tagRel":{"_id":"hWXvhumNwiXhu8fYX","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":88,"description":"
A red team is an independent group that challenges an organization or movement in order to improve it. Red teaming is the practice of using red teams.
History of the term
The term \"red teaming\" appears to originate in the United States military. A common exercise was to pitch an offensive \"red team..."},{"_id":"yauh4AaKZcmRKdzFb","core":false,"name":"Criticism of work in effective altruism","slug":"criticism-of-work-in-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"XenfourYJbFxLsD9x","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":223,"description":"
The Criticism of work in effective altruism tag applies to posts critically examining the work, projects, or methodologies of specific individuals, organizations, or initiatives affiliated with the effective altruism (EA) movement or community.
Related tags
..."}]},{"_id":"SBsGCwkoAemPawfJz","slug":"how-cost-effective-are-ai-safety-youtubers","title":"How cost-effective are AI safety YouTubers?","url":null,"baseScore":194,"voteCount":66,"commentCount":59,"postedAt":"2025-09-12T03:13:27.761Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2025-09-12T12:46:49.686Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/SBsGCwkoAemPawfJz/j6ftrzrkopglyrqe0nwh","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2025-10-08T00:59:31.145Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"Q8KWZ5q5Ruv8nrEBP","slug":"marcus-abramovitch","displayName":"Marcus Abramovitch 🔸","username":"MarcusAbramovitch","createdAt":"2020-04-14T04:10:21.345Z","profileImageId":"Profile/pntpuxpvq9udato9utxs","karma":4284,"jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":8,"commentCount":271,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":""},"contents":{"wordCount":2053,"htmlHighlight":"
Early work on ”GiveWell for AI Safety”
Intro
EA was founded on the principle of cost-effectiveness. We should fund projects that do more with less, and more generally, spend resources as efficiently as possible. And yet, while much interest, funding, and resources in EA have shifted towards AI safety, it’s rare to see any cost-effectiveness calculations. The focus on AI safety is based on vague philosophical arguments that the future could be very large and valua..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"pY5jDsy934zayA3CB","slug":"akrolsmir","karma":5097,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":"CEO","username":"akrolsmir","createdAt":"2020-07-09T18:16:37.895+00:00","postCount":45,"displayName":"Austin","commentCount":314,"organization":"Manifund","biographyHtml":"
Hey there, I'm Austin, currently running https://manifund.org. Always happy to meet people; reach out at austin@manifund.org!
","profileImageId":"Profile/p13fmhpslg4g2ochel2x"}],"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"rdxSaRhkHxwjbNkD7","core":false,"name":"Cost-effectiveness analysis","slug":"cost-effectiveness-analysis","tagRel":{"_id":"wGRC3WkWJ9ungbuTH","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":498,"description":"
Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is a kind of economic analysis that allows comparison of the relative costs and effects of rival interventions. Unlike cost-benefit analysis, CEA does not express these effects in monetary values.
..."},{"_id":"NTEQR6Saq3u3t22vZ","core":false,"name":"Research summary","slug":"research-summary","tagRel":{"_id":"2PHSzbLz6EujcT3sF","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":391,"description":"
The research summary tag can be applied to any post which summarizes a research paper/article originally published outside of the EA Forum.

research methods | academia | ..."},{"_id":"CDEKHTGHAqLcJPw5A","core":false,"name":"Impact assessment","slug":"impact-assessment","tagRel":{"_id":"tfewEP87AMfaBpJMS","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":260,"description":"
Impact assessment is a structured process for evaluating the impact of an intervention. Impact assessments can focus on an intervention's expected impact (ex-ante or prospective impact assessment) or on its actual impact (ex-post or retrospective impact assessment)...."},{"_id":"A7Kgc9sMmRcXkWK7S","core":false,"name":"Field-building","slug":"field-building","tagRel":{"_id":"BuZsF6Kn54bwCgjzW","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":241,"description":"
Field-building refers to influencing existing fields of research or advocacy or developing new ones, through advocacy, creating organisations, or funding people to work in the field.
Examples of field-building activities include scholarships and teaching buyouts (e.g...."},{"_id":"oNiQsBHA3i837sySD","core":true,"name":"AI safety","slug":"ai-safety","tagRel":{"_id":"Wqr7mfpkqTZjrSYAD","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":7288,"description":"
AI safety is the study of ways to reduce risks posed by artificial intelligence.
Interventions that aim to reduce these risks can be split into:
Technical alignment..."},{"_id":"EHLmbEmJ2Qd5WfwTb","core":true,"name":"Building effective altruism","slug":"building-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"fPogetnbZ5F7iZWo7","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":7853,"description":"
Building effective altruism refers to the family of interventions aimed at growing, shaping, or otherwise improving effective altruism as a practical and intellectual community.
Examples of building effective altruism include starting..."},{"_id":"psBzwdY8ipfCeExJ7","core":true,"name":"Cause prioritization","slug":"cause-prioritization","tagRel":{"_id":"PRie5Ca2b3mbRSJot","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":4101,"description":"
Cause prioritization refers to efforts to find the most pressing problems to work on and compare interventions across different cause areas so that we can do as much good as possible with the resources available to us.
Governments and philanthropists spend considerable resources attempting to do good in the world...."},{"_id":"4ASWFYwNTjitJox8m","core":false,"name":"Public communication on AI safety","slug":"public-communication-on-ai-safety","tagRel":{"_id":"rLM3KfpsWgburwaq6","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":361,"description":"
The public communication on AI safety tag covers depictions of AI safety in media as well as meta-discussions regarding the most effective ways to represent the topic when engaging with journalists or publishing content for a broader audience, and posts that discuss ways to convey AI safety to various audiences.
Related e..."}]},{"_id":"Ps8ecFPBzSrkLC6ip","slug":"2018-2019-long-term-future-fund-grantees-how-did-they-do","title":"2018-2019 Long-Term Future Fund Grantees: How did they do?","url":null,"baseScore":194,"voteCount":77,"commentCount":23,"postedAt":"2021-06-16T17:31:36.048Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2021-06-17T04:56:36.856Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/ouTRjR1aMmFx-74tTpbb8AXZzJGbqqt-X2wZyx5SX5MXo7cfFYF1aijBZy2Z6Lgl5npgEGCsnb3gcL7NJqixmBMm8L2DjmTV82FzRn93jkvdygpzxo9j5vsZhBgqJ0nroY7lmUs5","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2021-06-21T08:07:52.006Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"YRCdk7cvPT6pyiph9","slug":"nunosempere","displayName":"NunoSempere","username":"NunoSempere","createdAt":"2018-11-15T15:52:18.347Z","profileImageId":"Profile/k878ddoduabhtngbawob","karma":13987,"jobTitle":"Director, Head of Foresight","organization":"Sentinel","postCount":107,"commentCount":1294,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"$7d"},"contents":{"wordCount":1351,"htmlHighlight":"
Introduction
At the suggestion of Ozzie Gooen, I looked at publicly available information around past LTF grantees. We've been investigating the potential to have more evaluations of EA projects, and the LTFF grantees seemed to represent some of the best examples, as they passed a fairly high bar and were cleanly delimited.
For this project, I personally investigated each proposal without consulting many others. This work was clearly limited by not reaching out..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"HGcfdjhKx57u8juwM","core":false,"name":"Long-Term Future Fund","slug":"long-term-future-fund","tagRel":{"_id":"e4Y5NuJa8bob7qokx","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":56,"description":"
The Long-Term Future Fund (LTFF) was an expert-managed fund focused on mitigating global catastrophic risks that threaten the long-term future of humanity, with a..."},{"_id":"qnpsn9LbiD4hkbPRF","core":false,"name":"Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute","slug":"quantified-uncertainty-research-institute","tagRel":{"_id":"N7DqK9vnk27NSZdZf","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":96,"description":"
The Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI) is a nonprofit set up to study forecasting and epistemics. QURI was founded in 2019.
Funding
As of June 2022, QURI has received over $650,000 in funding from the..."},{"_id":"CDEKHTGHAqLcJPw5A","core":false,"name":"Impact assessment","slug":"impact-assessment","tagRel":{"_id":"SdayH8GoefB8J3vFb","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":260,"description":"
Impact assessment is a structured process for evaluating the impact of an intervention. Impact assessments can focus on an intervention's expected impact (ex-ante or prospective impact assessment) or on its actual impact (ex-post or retrospective impact assessment)...."},{"_id":"psBzwdY8ipfCeExJ7","core":true,"name":"Cause prioritization","slug":"cause-prioritization","tagRel":{"_id":"g4TJLcxtHNPzF533G","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":4101,"description":"
Cause prioritization refers to efforts to find the most pressing problems to work on and compare interventions across different cause areas so that we can do as much good as possible with the resources available to us.
Governments and philanthropists spend considerable resources attempting to do good in the world...."},{"_id":"aJnrnnobcBNWRsfAw","core":true,"name":"Forecasting","slug":"forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"ZfXvAHH8AoZ4nKwyo","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2083,"description":"
Forecasting is an important tool for improving the future, because good forecasts and estimates can help us appropriately plan interventions and assess risks. Over the past several decades there has been significant research and investment in forecasting and estimation techniques, tools, and organizations. This continues to be a..."}]},{"_id":"vfADxsPECqcbd3vs6","slug":"ditching-what-we-are-good-at-a-change-of-course-for-anima","title":"Ditching what we are good at: A change of course for Anima International in France","url":"https://animainternational.org/blog/france-mission-update","baseScore":193,"voteCount":73,"commentCount":14,"postedAt":"2025-02-22T00:21:38.282Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2025-02-22T14:53:31.001Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/vfADxsPECqcbd3vs6/echoxk2hilnpz6asqwin","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2025-04-06T10:30:42.610Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"58QjPXefyYuSwdLsn","slug":"keyvan-mostafavi","displayName":"Keyvan Mostafavi","username":"Keyvan Mostafavi","createdAt":"2023-08-29T14:56:03.577Z","profileImageId":"Profile/v1gbuax84roevv1zoks2","karma":438,"jobTitle":null,"organization":"Anima International","postCount":4,"commentCount":22,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":""},"contents":{"wordCount":2801,"htmlHighlight":"
My name is Keyvan, and I lead Anima International’s work in France. Our organization went through a major transformation in 2024. I want to share that journey with you.
Anima International in France used to be known as Assiettes Végétales (‘Plant-Based Plates’). We focused entirely on introducing and promoting vegetarian and plant-based meals in collective catering. Today, as Anima, our mission is to put an end to the use of cages for laying hens.
These changes come af..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"dHWdWD5sSiTgLioJH","slug":"anima-international","karma":636,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"Anima International","createdAt":"2022-07-08T14:33:01.844+00:00","postCount":4,"displayName":"Anima International","commentCount":10,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":"
We are an international organization which helps animals, particularly farmed animals, as effectively as possible. To help us achieve our goal we use scientific evidence, careful reasoning and decades of experience.
We are impact oriented and use a wide array of tools to make the world a better place. Our current toolkit includes:
groundbreaking global investigations which expose animal suffering hidden behind the walls of factory farms,
negotiations with companies to make them ban the most cruel practices,
advocacy to secure legal milestones for animals,
influencing markets to introduce animal-friendly approaches,
in addition to this, we work to strengthen the capacity of the animal advocacy movement.
","profileImageId":"Profile/wf5hvm0ccgrquuwjx4d3"}],"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"Ato38zrg3c8hfMstw","core":false,"name":"Anima International","slug":"anima-international","tagRel":{"_id":"jajTb2nwDuDMtaMKW","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":12,"description":"
Anima International is an umbrella of European organizations focused on improving welfare standards for farm animals through corporate and media outreach, undercover investigations, and legislative work.
History
Anima International evolved..."},{"_id":"QdH9f8TC6G8oGYdgt","core":true,"name":"Animal welfare","slug":"animal-welfare","tagRel":{"_id":"r7YxjpDhXzvEYQ5Xy","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":3309,"description":"
Animal welfare is a core focus area within effective altruism. It focuses on ways to improve the wellbeing of nonhuman animals, primarily..."},{"_id":"bBS5GQJgFcobNBLki","core":false,"name":"Organization updates","slug":"organization-updates","tagRel":{"_id":"JPuybK8fFFBtuTk5P","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":1655,"description":"
Use the organization updates topic for posts where EA-aligned organizations share their recent progress and other news.
Not to be confused with EA Organization Updates, a monthly post series containing updates about organization..."},{"_id":"bY6qtCihTzzSCw9gc","core":false,"name":"Announcements and updates","slug":"announcements-and-updates","tagRel":{"_id":"NzPzGFaA7MZQvgnhE","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2521,"description":"
This topic collects posts that make an official announcement or update: for example, a new project or organization, a competition or prize, or major organizational news.

Related entries
organization updates |..."},{"_id":"4cYxRNGdZNWbdxPb7","core":false,"name":"Dietary change","slug":"dietary-change","tagRel":{"_id":"NAypLfiMmwFH8XmXf","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":222,"description":"
Dietary change is seen as a way to reduce animal suffering, especially in factory farms, by reducing consumption of animal products or avoiding such products altogether.^{..."},{"_id":"CDEKHTGHAqLcJPw5A","core":false,"name":"Impact assessment","slug":"impact-assessment","tagRel":{"_id":"doA6wCo3sLXgYMKPD","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":260,"description":"}
Impact assessment is a structured process for evaluating the impact of an intervention. Impact assessments can focus on an intervention's expected impact (ex-ante or prospective impact assessment) or on its actual impact (ex-post or retrospective impact assessment)...."},{"_id":"psBzwdY8ipfCeExJ7","core":true,"name":"Cause prioritization","slug":"cause-prioritization","tagRel":{"_id":"nuARaBjnXBu9qufqT","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":4101,"description":"
Cause prioritization refers to efforts to find the most pressing problems to work on and compare interventions across different cause areas so that we can do as much good as possible with the resources available to us.
Governments and philanthropists spend considerable resources attempting to do good in the world...."},{"_id":"tx3q9KW35B3M6MM4h","core":false,"name":"Organization strategy","slug":"organization-strategy","tagRel":{"_id":"8uhzgaf7cD5ZJtRcA","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":329,"description":"
The organization strategy tag covers posts about running organizations well (whether for-profit or nonprofit).
If a post discusses running an EA group rather than another type of organization, please use the effective altruism groups tag instea..."}]},{"_id":"xmmqDdGqNZq5RELer","slug":"shallow-evaluations-of-longtermist-organizations","title":"Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations","url":null,"baseScore":193,"voteCount":74,"commentCount":34,"postedAt":"2021-06-24T15:31:24.693Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2021-06-25T05:10:51.771Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://i.imgur.com/11Dq64a.png","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2021-08-09T19:40:20.236Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"YRCdk7cvPT6pyiph9","slug":"nunosempere","displayName":"NunoSempere","username":"NunoSempere","createdAt":"2018-11-15T15:52:18.347Z","profileImageId":"Profile/k878ddoduabhtngbawob","karma":13987,"jobTitle":"Director, Head of Foresight","organization":"Sentinel","postCount":107,"commentCount":1294,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"$7e"},"contents":{"wordCount":10080,"htmlHighlight":"
Epistemic status: Fairly uncertain. May contain errors, probabilities might not be calibrated.
\n
Introduction
\n
This document reviews a number of organizations in the longtermist ecosystem, and poses and answers a number of questions which would have to be answered to arrive at a numerical estimate of their impact. My aim was to see how useful a \"quantified evaluation\" format in the longtermist domain would be.
\n
In the end, I did not arrive at GiveWell-style numeric..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"vLSh6ePux7eZcD3qc","core":false,"name":"Simon Institute for Longterm Governance","slug":"simon-institute-for-longterm-governance","tagRel":{"_id":"2fCe6LPkTJeRtXaNq","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":4,"description":"
The Simon Institute for Longterm Governance (SI) is a think tank based in Geneva, Switzerland, working to foster international cooperation on governing frontier AI.
They conduct research on international AI governance, facilitate exchange between technical and policy communities, and educate diplomats and civil servants ab..."},{"_id":"ZsP4djM7La3kWqMAj","core":false,"name":"Future of Humanity Institute","slug":"future-of-humanity-institute","tagRel":{"_id":"4A2oKq62JWcEWFuXq","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":40,"description":"
The Future of Humanity Institute (FHI) was a multidisciplinary research institute at the University of Oxford studying big picture questions for human civilization. It was founded in 2005 by Nick Bostrom, who was also its Director until the insti..."},{"_id":"EJb2KZYkRs8rtNG7f","core":false,"name":"Center on Long-Term Risk","slug":"center-on-long-term-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"4EaJZokHLToQS4H5e","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":74,"description":"
The Center on Long-Term Risk (CLR) is a research institute that aims to mitigate s-risks from advanced AI. Its research agenda focuses on encouraging cooperative behavior in and..."},{"_id":"DGhyx7Bk33Ghi5koD","core":false,"name":"Autonomous weapon","slug":"autonomous-weapon","tagRel":{"_id":"52kZtAL4RdkDePNby","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":36,"description":"
An autonomous weapon is a weapon system that, once activated, can select and engage targets without further intervention by a human operator.
Further reading
Piper, Kelsey (2019) Death by algorithm: the age of killer rob..."},{"_id":"qnpsn9LbiD4hkbPRF","core":false,"name":"Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute","slug":"quantified-uncertainty-research-institute","tagRel":{"_id":"7ouFEm9AE3EeQdutj","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":96,"description":"
The Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI) is a nonprofit set up to study forecasting and epistemics. QURI was founded in 2019.
Funding
As of June 2022, QURI has received over $650,000 in funding from the..."},{"_id":"4FDyuFrgeFEtvnhqh","core":false,"name":"Centre for the Governance of AI","slug":"centre-for-the-governance-of-ai","tagRel":{"_id":"D9o3Bg9guTAAhfuPd","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":21,"description":"
The Centre for the Governance of AI (GovAI) is an AI governance research center.
History
GovAI was founded in 2018, as part of the Future of Humanity..."},{"_id":"hgPbtuMMGZHqXQhC4","core":false,"name":"ALLFED","slug":"allfed","tagRel":{"_id":"F4NEkRKTEjeZkM8rZ","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":43,"description":"
ALLFED (the Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters) is a nonprofit organization dedicated to ensuring that people have enough to eat in the event of a global catastrophe, through research on..."},{"_id":"gCzFfErskfQzD6b95","core":false,"name":"Rethink Priorities","slug":"rethink-priorities","tagRel":{"_id":"Jo5h3bthKKafCyHay","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":450,"description":"
Rethink Priorities is a think tank dedicated to informing decisions made by high-impact organisations and funders. It works across various cause areas such as longtermism (including forecasting,..."},{"_id":"Gk6vKenDrDLpwunHb","core":false,"name":"Charity evaluation","slug":"charity-evaluation","tagRel":{"_id":"KSYztdqdqCHKYmTpD","voteType":null,"baseScore":5},"postCount":138,"description":"
Charity evaluation (or charity assessment) is the investigation of charities to determine whether they should receive funding. It often includes a mixture of quantitative cost-effectiveness calculations and other considerations, such as the..."},{"_id":"8FxWuRZCwoxzQPkWM","core":false,"name":"United States","slug":"united-states","tagRel":{"_id":"LDcowitCfbQvqEGhR","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":185,"description":"
The United States tag is used for posts that are about the United States, including (but not restricted to) policy, politics, and..."},{"_id":"3f2BbrdHC4wajeHXT","core":false,"name":"China","slug":"china","tagRel":{"_id":"LqAqGxLiD2cTGkRkW","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":178,"description":"
The China tag is for posts that are about China, that address how China is relevant to various issues EAs care about, or that are relevant to how one could have an impact by engaging with China.
Further reading
Wiblin, Robert & Keiran Harris (2020)..."},{"_id":"u3Xg8MjDe2e6BvKtv","core":false,"name":"AI governance","slug":"ai-governance","tagRel":{"_id":"Pbyv8Yjnn7meekff4","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":1753,"description":"
AI governance (or the governance of artificial intelligence) is the study of norms, policies, and institutions that can help humanity navigate the transition to a world with advanced artificial intelligence. This inclu..."},{"_id":"AGS8ToNJpkDkTecCa","core":false,"name":"Macrostrategy","slug":"macrostrategy","tagRel":{"_id":"RJzGGPfPSWeDCWaZ5","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":68,"description":"
Macrostrategy is the study of how present-day actions may influence the long-term future of humanity...."},{"_id":"bSGimoamvLEJsBC7G","core":false,"name":"Accidental harm","slug":"accidental-harm","tagRel":{"_id":"Svgwa6Jc5GR6qQ9Gz","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":50,"description":"
Accidental harm is harm resulting from unforeseen effects of attempts to do good.
Further reading
Aird, Michael (2020) Information hazards and downside risks, LessWrong, February 18.
Dalton, Max & Jonas Volmer (2018)..."},{"_id":"v6QikrTuQwq6G4cxL","core":false,"name":"LessWrong","slug":"lesswrong","tagRel":{"_id":"cH4Qj5jmDCMi3bAqR","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":46,"description":"
LessWrong (sometimes spelled Less Wrong) is a community blog and forum dedicated to improving epistemic and instrumental rationality.
History
In November 2006, the group blog Overcoming Bias was launched, wi..."},{"_id":"gE5tjjgKjiFL59pyc","core":false,"name":"Future of Life Institute","slug":"future-of-life-institute","tagRel":{"_id":"faFYhPDMeWSNfnmjb","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":35,"description":"
The Future of Life Institute (FLI) is a non-profit that works to reduce existential risk from powerful technologies, particularly..."},{"_id":"2x445EbpkWeSHqv4Y","core":false,"name":"80,000 Hours","slug":"80-000-hours","tagRel":{"_id":"mSWEFqgBb93fHKQFp","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":304,"description":"
80,000 Hours is a nonprofit organization that helps individuals select high-impact careers. It conducts research on pressing social problems and provides one-on-one advice on the basis of this research.
History
80,000 Hours was founded in July 2011..."},{"_id":"JHuxBxXqhEixEYuvs","core":false,"name":"Center for Security and Emerging Technology","slug":"center-for-security-and-emerging-technology","tagRel":{"_id":"mYghEghf9ahPfgmg5","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":5,"description":"
The Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) is a think tank dedicated to policy analysis at the intersection of national and international security and emerging technologies. CSET's founder and director is Jason Gaverick Matheny...."},{"_id":"3rvqEHfsAeLJqroAw","core":false,"name":"All-Party Parliamentary Group for Future Generations","slug":"all-party-parliamentary-group-for-future-generations","tagRel":{"_id":"n4Gqs8uJr3NBnPutR","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":10,"description":"
The All-Party Parliamentary Group for Future Generations (also known as the APPG on Future Generations or APPGFG) is an all-party parliamentary group in the United Kingdom which aims to increase and support the consideration of long-term issues in policy-making.
Funding
As of June..."},{"_id":"kBxmJcNsf3p6YLPd4","core":false,"name":"Global Priorities Institute","slug":"global-priorities-institute","tagRel":{"_id":"oYgs4nCFAJF2RveHJ","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":135,"description":"
The Global Priorities Institute (GPI) is an interdisciplinary research centre at the University of Oxford whose aim is to conduct foundational research that informs the decision-making of individuals and institutions seeking to do as much good as possible. It is directed by..."},{"_id":"34whaWCHQD5ydpxgu","core":false,"name":"Centre for the Study of Existential Risk","slug":"centre-for-the-study-of-existential-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"uY2zAr7Mqnbg96jxj","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":27,"description":"
The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) is a research center at the University of Cambridge dedicated to the study and mitigation of existential risks.
History
CSER was founded in 2012 by Huw Price,..."},{"_id":"of9xBvR3wpbp6qsZC","core":true,"name":"Policy","slug":"policy","tagRel":{"_id":"ucFZp7DqN3cmWbx2o","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":3264,"description":"
The policy topic is very broad, covering any post about improving government policy (in developing and developed countries alike).
Improving policy
Governments are typically committed to the notion that their policies should be effective. This means that members of the effective altruist community can be in a good..."},{"_id":"psBzwdY8ipfCeExJ7","core":true,"name":"Cause prioritization","slug":"cause-prioritization","tagRel":{"_id":"NZhEagWYsExvixazc","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":4101,"description":"
Cause prioritization refers to efforts to find the most pressing problems to work on and compare interventions across different cause areas so that we can do as much good as possible with the resources available to us.
Governments and philanthropists spend considerable resources attempting to do good in the world...."},{"_id":"aJnrnnobcBNWRsfAw","core":true,"name":"Forecasting","slug":"forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"gf4WFWBd6tD7RmCqg","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2083,"description":"
Forecasting is an important tool for improving the future, because good forecasts and estimates can help us appropriately plan interventions and assess risks. Over the past several decades there has been significant research and investment in forecasting and estimation techniques, tools, and organizations. This continues to be a..."},{"_id":"ee66CtAMYurQreWBH","core":true,"name":"Existential risk","slug":"existential-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"hxiypacBdLm2CcykQ","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":4372,"description":"
An existential risk is a risk that threatens the destruction of the long-term potential of life.^[1] An existential risk could threaten the..."},{"_id":"L6NqHZkLc4xZ7YtDr","core":true,"name":"Effective giving","slug":"effective-giving","tagRel":{"_id":"zoKthsZnMTEe2KyH4","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2413,"description":"
Effective giving is the branch of effective altruism focused on charitable donations.
The main purpose of effective giving is to support a charity or project that can achieve an..."},{"_id":"CDEKHTGHAqLcJPw5A","core":false,"name":"Impact assessment","slug":"impact-assessment","tagRel":{"_id":"GfcBpXMnfjEardHsg","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":260,"description":"
Impact assessment is a structured process for evaluating the impact of an intervention. Impact assessments can focus on an intervention's expected impact (ex-ante or prospective impact assessment) or on its actual impact (ex-post or retrospective impact assessment)...."},{"_id":"oNiQsBHA3i837sySD","core":true,"name":"AI safety","slug":"ai-safety","tagRel":{"_id":"5GikuAqcv7CtLsGwg","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":7288,"description":"
AI safety is the study of ways to reduce risks posed by artificial intelligence.
Interventions that aim to reduce these risks can be split into:
Technical alignment..."}]},{"_id":"S5yBGo4fnqm2zKMKj","slug":"do-ai-safety-talent-programmes-work-nobody-has-run-the-study","title":"Do AI safety talent programmes work? Nobody has run the study that would tell us.","url":null,"baseScore":183,"voteCount":94,"commentCount":54,"postedAt":"2026-09-07T09:12:18.842Z","curatedDate":"2026-09-18T19:22:19.110Z","frontpageDate":"2026-09-07T15:13:30.474Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":{"imageId":"SocialPreview/lgztqbn5j1gzf7bbstug"},"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2026-10-16T08:48:18.200Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"oTm9BDDRhQ378Rktv","slug":"laura-thomas-walters","displayName":"Laura Thomas-Walters","username":"Laura Thomas-Walters","createdAt":"2026-07-27T15:55:20.986Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":313,"jobTitle":"Head of Impact","organization":"ProVeg International","postCount":8,"commentCount":21,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"
Head of Impact at ProVeg International, where I lead monitoring, evaluation and learning across six impact areas and 14 country offices. Behavioural scientist by training (PhD) and previously Deputy Director of Experimental Research at Yale, directing experimental behavioural research across the US, UK and India, and Senior Advisor to DEFRA's Strategic Behavioural Insights Team.
My research sits at the intersection of behaviour change and systems change: demand reduction in the illegal wildlife trade, climate communication and activism, and the social diffusion of plant-based diets. ~1,400 citations, h-index 20. Mostly I care about whether interventions actually work, and whether anyone bothered to check.
"},"contents":{"wordCount":1898,"htmlHighlight":"
Headline finding: I audited 17 AI Safety Talent programmes. Zero of 17 have published any comparison group, rejected-applicant follow-up, matched control or randomisation. Not one. Every programme that mentions a counterfactual does it by asking participants to self-report.

Background
At least $70 million..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"hxRMaKvwGqPb43TWB","core":false,"name":"Research","slug":"research","tagRel":{"_id":"uPq48Qi3Yr9KE7kP6","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2714,"description":"
For some of the world’s problems, like many forms of cancer, there are currently no solutions. In such cases, research can be particularly impactful. Even in cases where there are ways of dealing with a problem (like HIV), further research may provide more effective tools (like a ..."},{"_id":"oNiQsBHA3i837sySD","core":true,"name":"AI safety","slug":"ai-safety","tagRel":{"_id":"76EjEAKjYkgdz92Dn","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":7288,"description":"
AI safety is the study of ways to reduce risks posed by artificial intelligence.
Interventions that aim to reduce these risks can be split into:
Technical alignment..."},{"_id":"ct6dCPfJK9jkJnyAc","core":false,"name":"Building the field of AI safety","slug":"building-the-field-of-ai-safety","tagRel":{"_id":"tPPssiQeJaWCpv6dH","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":465,"description":"
Building the field of AI safety refers to the family of interventions aimed at growing, shaping or otherwise improving AI safety as an intellectual community.
Related entries
AI risk..."},{"_id":"CDEKHTGHAqLcJPw5A","core":false,"name":"Impact assessment","slug":"impact-assessment","tagRel":{"_id":"tXC3ny2xRT7raYjmC","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":260,"description":"
Impact assessment is a structured process for evaluating the impact of an intervention. Impact assessments can focus on an intervention's expected impact (ex-ante or prospective impact assessment) or on its actual impact (ex-post or retrospective impact assessment)...."},{"_id":"psBzwdY8ipfCeExJ7","core":true,"name":"Cause prioritization","slug":"cause-prioritization","tagRel":{"_id":"Mih7idKKmg8r5iyDR","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":4101,"description":"
Cause prioritization refers to efforts to find the most pressing problems to work on and compare interventions across different cause areas so that we can do as much good as possible with the resources available to us.
Governments and philanthropists spend considerable resources attempting to do good in the world...."},{"_id":"uCPFdnpD6e4CCX8nC","core":false,"name":"Research methods","slug":"research-methods","tagRel":{"_id":"4Mse6FgWXwYnjNdBC","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":265,"description":"
Use the research methods tag for posts about how to conduct better research.
The tag can also be used for posts that present their research in such an exemplary way that a reader could learn about effective research methods simply by reading them.
For posts about improving research methods done in science, use the..."},{"_id":"G2LQtuW6qoBrsfKEv","core":false,"name":"Counterfactual reasoning","slug":"counterfactual-reasoning","tagRel":{"_id":"rxng9tAumJEwdDLEg","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":37,"description":"
Counterfactual reasoning involves scenarios that will occur if an agent chooses a certain action, or that would have occurred if an agent had chosen an action they did not. For instance, we can consider a counterfactual scenario in which the effective altruism community was called ‘effective giving’ rather than effective al..."},{"_id":"yauh4AaKZcmRKdzFb","core":false,"name":"Criticism of work in effective altruism","slug":"criticism-of-work-in-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"mxJsEjvthZatnsju7","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":223,"description":"
The Criticism of work in effective altruism tag applies to posts critically examining the work, projects, or methodologies of specific individuals, organizations, or initiatives affiliated with the effective altruism (EA) movement or community.
Related tags
..."}]},{"_id":"5wXGLbqQ3cchjogB5","slug":"expectations-scale-with-scale-we-should-be-more-scope","title":"Expectations Scale with Scale – We Should Be More Scope-Sensitive in Our Funding","url":null,"baseScore":181,"voteCount":73,"commentCount":24,"postedAt":"2024-11-06T09:03:17.742Z","curatedDate":"2024-11-14T14:26:01.172Z","frontpageDate":"2024-11-06T14:15:46.640Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2024-11-06T09:03:17.742Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"g6tHchNgkhtQNcdbF","slug":"joey","displayName":"Joey🔸","username":"Joey","createdAt":"2014-09-10T16:49:39.477Z","profileImageId":"Profile/fipo1mpbmk5jr6f5vob4","karma":9944,"jobTitle":"Co-founder","organization":"Elevate Philanthropy","postCount":92,"commentCount":273,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"
I want to make the biggest positive difference in the world that I can. My mission is to cause more effective charities to exist in the world by connecting talented individuals with high-impact intervention opportunities. This is why I co-founded the organisation Charity Entrepreneurship to achieve this through an extensive research process and incubation program.
"},"contents":{"wordCount":880,"htmlHighlight":"
TLDR: The shortest version of this argument is very simple: your expectations for an organization should be higher where their budget and staff size are higher. In other words, we should have different expectations for a 20-person organization with a $1.5 million budget than a 2-person $150,000 budget organization.
While this seems pretty clear in the abstract, I find that people tend not to update nearly enough on this when they should. For example, I often see people comparing t..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"iaTpKWdeW79vqRFkA","core":false,"name":"Funding Strategy Week ","slug":"funding-strategy-week","tagRel":{"_id":"ZAxRTPN9a68EzLqhd","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":23,"description":"
A week for posting about questions such as (list from this post):
Strategy for small donors
Whether to split your donations vs giving to one thing
Giving now vs investing to give later
..."},{"_id":"psBzwdY8ipfCeExJ7","core":true,"name":"Cause prioritization","slug":"cause-prioritization","tagRel":{"_id":"9FwYrvC5W6L6WJv6L","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":4101,"description":"
Cause prioritization refers to efforts to find the most pressing problems to work on and compare interventions across different cause areas so that we can do as much good as possible with the resources available to us.
Governments and philanthropists spend considerable resources attempting to do good in the world...."},{"_id":"L6NqHZkLc4xZ7YtDr","core":true,"name":"Effective giving","slug":"effective-giving","tagRel":{"_id":"uEB5u3z87oKGnwB6t","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":2413,"description":"
Effective giving is the branch of effective altruism focused on charitable donations.
The main purpose of effective giving is to support a charity or project that can achieve an..."},{"_id":"wWPDwxR4ZhjWwno4w","core":false,"name":"Grantmaking","slug":"grantmaking","tagRel":{"_id":"2ufzsov6Dr3qRwbWB","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":259,"description":"
Grantmaking is the process by which a government or an organization gives non-repayable funds or products for a particular purpose or project.
Grantmaking focused on top cause areas is one of 80,000 hours \"priority paths\"—the most promising career opportuni..."},{"_id":"tx3q9KW35B3M6MM4h","core":false,"name":"Organization strategy","slug":"organization-strategy","tagRel":{"_id":"WoeLs7ruDyJciKQXr","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":329,"description":"
The organization strategy tag covers posts about running organizations well (whether for-profit or nonprofit).
If a post discusses running an EA group rather than another type of organization, please use the effective altruism groups tag instea..."},{"_id":"CDEKHTGHAqLcJPw5A","core":false,"name":"Impact assessment","slug":"impact-assessment","tagRel":{"_id":"2AbSfik6neRnxg6xx","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":260,"description":"
Impact assessment is a structured process for evaluating the impact of an intervention. Impact assessments can focus on an intervention's expected impact (ex-ante or prospective impact assessment) or on its actual impact (ex-post or retrospective impact assessment)...."},{"_id":"4CH9vsvzyk4mSKwyZ","core":true,"name":"Career choice","slug":"career-choice","tagRel":{"_id":"orRXcspytcutyk4XK","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":3518,"description":"
Career choice (in effective altruism) is about the ethical and practical considerations relevant to finding a high-impact career.
Although people spend more time on their jobs than on any other activity besides sleep—about 80,000 hours over the course of a typical life..."},{"_id":"be4pBryMKxLhkmgvE","core":false,"name":"Funding opportunities","slug":"funding-opportunities","tagRel":{"_id":"P4DvaMszgSHbjGSLo","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":233,"description":"
There are a number of ways to get funding for projects motivated by ideas and goals from effective altruism:
Open Philanthropy
Opportunities for funding
..."},{"_id":"y4b45yXXrFJpPmx7d","core":false,"name":"Opinion","slug":"opinion","tagRel":{"_id":"v4BGQu9qjqrpahpmE","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":2155,"description":"
Apply this topic to posts that express a personal opinion.

Related entries

community experiences | community
..."},{"_id":"EHLmbEmJ2Qd5WfwTb","core":true,"name":"Building effective altruism","slug":"building-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"fmPYst4i2mq3arirp","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":7853,"description":"
Building effective altruism refers to the family of interventions aimed at growing, shaping, or otherwise improving effective altruism as a practical and intellectual community.
Examples of building effective altruism include starting..."},{"_id":"GR75k85jWoQ6iEKMA","core":false,"name":"Giving Season (2024)","slug":"giving-season-2024","tagRel":{"_id":"3WTsnqKJbFigza8Qu","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":125,"description":"
Giving Season 2024 ran from November 4th to December 31st. The Forum looked seasonably pretty, and ran several mini-events, including an interactive donation election, a marginal funding week, a donation celebration, and multiple AMAs.
Read more in the..."}]},{"_id":"EipE75vsDuD7bdJar","slug":"gwwc-s-2020-2022-impact-evaluation-executive-summary","title":"GWWC's 2020–2022 Impact evaluation (executive summary)","url":"https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/impact","baseScore":181,"voteCount":77,"commentCount":19,"postedAt":"2023-03-31T07:34:48.145Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2023-03-31T11:25:04.548Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":{"imageId":"SocialPreview/ytrr0tfjbexwvesdq0vf"},"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":null,"readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2024-02-25T19:22:41.315Z","sharingSettings":{"anyoneWithLinkCan":"none","explicitlySharedUsersCan":"edit"},"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"CZCZ9FqiE8zv3GiW5","slug":"michael-townsend","displayName":"Michael Townsend🔸","username":"Michael_Townsend","createdAt":"2018-10-21T17:00:54.470Z","profileImageId":"Profile/hcutzskzvq14k1aoi2nk","karma":2652,"jobTitle":"Associate Program Officer","organization":"Coefficient Giving","postCount":9,"commentCount":102,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"
Associate Program Officer on Coefficient Giving's Short Timelines Special Projects team.
🔸 GWWC Pledger
"},"contents":{"wordCount":2268,"htmlHighlight":"
Giving What We Can (GWWC) is on a mission to create a world in which giving effectively and significantly is a cultural norm. Our research recommendations and ..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"oW7iAtySfpTssmRhy","slug":"sjir-hoeijmakers","karma":2954,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"SjirH","createdAt":"2015-12-04T19:34:09.601+00:00","postCount":19,"displayName":"Sjir Hoeijmakers🔸","commentCount":90,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":"","profileImageId":null},{"_id":"T9vXEgCbvr4wff3P5","slug":"giving-what-we-can","karma":6142,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"Giving What We Can","createdAt":"2021-11-18T23:55:44.266+00:00","postCount":84,"displayName":"Giving What We Can🔸","commentCount":21,"organization":"Giving What We Can","biographyHtml":"","profileImageId":"Profile/aurx0jps0dbcgsgz09ua"}],"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"L6NqHZkLc4xZ7YtDr","core":true,"name":"Effective giving","slug":"effective-giving","tagRel":{"_id":"rEp54rEgCvJZELec8","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":2413,"description":"
Effective giving is the branch of effective altruism focused on charitable donations.
The main purpose of effective giving is to support a charity or project that can achieve an..."},{"_id":"rdxSaRhkHxwjbNkD7","core":false,"name":"Cost-effectiveness analysis","slug":"cost-effectiveness-analysis","tagRel":{"_id":"6CdYWcjcgHvypQJuH","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":498,"description":"
Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is a kind of economic analysis that allows comparison of the relative costs and effects of rival interventions. Unlike cost-benefit analysis, CEA does not express these effects in monetary values.
..."},{"_id":"CDEKHTGHAqLcJPw5A","core":false,"name":"Impact assessment","slug":"impact-assessment","tagRel":{"_id":"uGJJrXumRrndyJMNk","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":260,"description":"
Impact assessment is a structured process for evaluating the impact of an intervention. Impact assessments can focus on an intervention's expected impact (ex-ante or prospective impact assessment) or on its actual impact (ex-post or retrospective impact assessment)...."},{"_id":"bBS5GQJgFcobNBLki","core":false,"name":"Organization updates","slug":"organization-updates","tagRel":{"_id":"2j9sho49tppb4fm7h","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":1655,"description":"
Use the organization updates topic for posts where EA-aligned organizations share their recent progress and other news.
Not to be confused with EA Organization Updates, a monthly post series containing updates about organization..."},{"_id":"gxgimN3k2z5BLmgDa","core":false,"name":"Giving What We Can","slug":"giving-what-we-can","tagRel":{"_id":"QM8QrrDJsamh3sRwH","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":318,"description":"
Giving What We Can (GWWC) is an organisation dedicated to inspiring and supporting people to give more, and give more effectively.
Giving What We Can promotes three donation pledges, the most prominent of which is the 10% Pledge, a..."}]},{"_id":"BNQMyWGCNWDdP2WyG","slug":"2021-ai-alignment-literature-review-and-charity-comparison","title":"2021 AI Alignment Literature Review and Charity Comparison","url":null,"baseScore":176,"voteCount":65,"commentCount":18,"postedAt":"2021-12-23T14:06:45.612Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2021-12-23T15:17:53.065Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/lFqp-lGcIuRc_LIT56mzlsZBDGsC09_xCO0ENuUnbLhlWaQljswqI-U2KsgZ1-8sDe1kvtNx1uFnuK2zK6wk9GkAGb5_SsrTtJ5b3_W3GQWwMIARxGh7yc8Ck043FpSvH4ILKLkj","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2022-04-12T00:15:16.685Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"8WBD8X9dcMvkGiN5G","slug":"larks","displayName":"Larks","username":"Larks","createdAt":"2014-09-20T20:07:58.285Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":16927,"jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":28,"commentCount":1663,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":null},"contents":{"wordCount":21850,"htmlHighlight":"
cross-posted to LessWrong here.
Introduction
As in 2016, 201..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"avZp9JaYhuAkn3MBu","core":false,"name":"AI Impacts (Organisation)","slug":"ai-impacts-organisation","tagRel":{"_id":"2i4i3EELhb8Zv6eRf","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":45,"description":"
AI Impacts is a nonprofit organization that researches answers to decision-relevant questions about the future of artificial intelligence. It was founded in 2014 by Paul Christiano a..."},{"_id":"FApCfgvWARAZR7rxm","core":false,"name":"Survival and Flourishing","slug":"survival-and-flourishing","tagRel":{"_id":"866XzJLYDfTFQSyWv","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":19,"description":"
Survival and Flourishing Fund (SFF) and Survival and Flourishing Projects (SFP) are two related entities that facilitate grants to projects aiming to improve the long-term future.
SFF and SAP share a common..."},{"_id":"44jJ7iqTWJYdEWpTo","core":false,"name":"Global Catastrophic Risk Institute","slug":"global-catastrophic-risk-institute","tagRel":{"_id":"8b75wch9q9fWsLhue","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":14,"description":"
The Global Catastrophic Risk Institute (GCRI) is a think tank that analyzes risks to the survival of human civilization.
Funding
As of June 2022, GCRI has received nearly $450,000 in funding from the Survival and Flourishing Fund...."},{"_id":"xoZfSjT2oXLYnDfmN","core":false,"name":"FTX Foundation","slug":"ftx-foundation","tagRel":{"_id":"8d7jFjjKbZKb4KWwr","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":72,"description":"
The FTX Foundation was a non-profit organization funded by FTX, a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange founded by Sam Bankman-Fried. The foundation was created in February 2021..."},{"_id":"JHuxBxXqhEixEYuvs","core":false,"name":"Center for Security and Emerging Technology","slug":"center-for-security-and-emerging-technology","tagRel":{"_id":"8pujvY6vHpbZxKEyL","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":5,"description":"
The Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) is a think tank dedicated to policy analysis at the intersection of national and international security and emerging technologies. CSET's founder and director is Jason Gaverick Matheny...."},{"_id":"BAbo53eWZFH4cFjkR","core":false,"name":"Donation writeup","slug":"donation-writeup","tagRel":{"_id":"CWLZvP4KMAAaiafND","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":120,"description":"
In a donation writeup, someone explains why they've chosen to donate or grant money to a particular recipient, or why they've recommended that other people donate. (For example, GiveWell's charity analyses would count.)
\n
Related entries
\n
donation cho..."},{"_id":"toct8RYvTvgontEts","core":false,"name":"Coefficient Giving","slug":"coefficient-giving","tagRel":{"_id":"CuGwSQebpNXN7DhMu","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":317,"description":"
Coefficient Giving (previously Open Philanthropy) is a research and grantmaking foundation based in San Francisco.
History
Coefficient Giving launched in late 2011, as a partnership between Good Ventures and..."},{"_id":"ZsP4djM7La3kWqMAj","core":false,"name":"Future of Humanity Institute","slug":"future-of-humanity-institute","tagRel":{"_id":"DMCZByFfsgrbvtpsp","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":40,"description":"
The Future of Humanity Institute (FHI) was a multidisciplinary research institute at the University of Oxford studying big picture questions for human civilization. It was founded in 2005 by Nick Bostrom, who was also its Director until the insti..."},{"_id":"rrHWYw3NMJ9tmpSPi","core":false,"name":"Stanford Existential Risks Initiative","slug":"stanford-existential-risks-initiative","tagRel":{"_id":"Dmj4tbyAvd9uqmtsf","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":30,"description":"
Stanford Existential Risks Initiative (SERI) is a collaboration between faculty and students of Stanford University dedicated to mitigating global catastrophic risks...."},{"_id":"qudNsPyYu6Q3LWq8D","core":false,"name":"Redwood Research","slug":"redwood-research","tagRel":{"_id":"FJzry7DKMTS6GaMqv","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":20,"description":"
Redwood Research is a nonprofit organization focused on applied AI alignment research.

Their current project started in early August 2021...."},{"_id":"fJZQgnZiuoiDuKmq5","core":false,"name":"DeepMind","slug":"deepmind","tagRel":{"_id":"GJ7XArywKj4Wo6DDd","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":22,"description":"
DeepMind is a British AI company. Its mission is to \"solve intelligence, and then use that to solve everything else\".^[1]
Further reading
Sánchez, Sebastián (2018)..."},{"_id":"bX3po4ANFEBvLM4vt","core":false,"name":"Ought","slug":"ought","tagRel":{"_id":"QkdQZMkiLhGAzissJ","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":17,"description":"
Ought is a research lab that develops mechanisms for delegating open-ended thinking to advanced machine learning systems.
Funding
As of July 2022, Ought has received $5 million in funding from the Future Fund,..."},{"_id":"oNiQsBHA3i837sySD","core":true,"name":"AI safety","slug":"ai-safety","tagRel":{"_id":"RwKoKrz3a7b3kwRLa","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":7288,"description":"
AI safety is the study of ways to reduce risks posed by artificial intelligence.
Interventions that aim to reduce these risks can be split into:
Technical alignment..."},{"_id":"HGcfdjhKx57u8juwM","core":false,"name":"Long-Term Future Fund","slug":"long-term-future-fund","tagRel":{"_id":"Te3AJ5MrGHZZsNzKu","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":56,"description":"
The Long-Term Future Fund (LTFF) was an expert-managed fund focused on mitigating global catastrophic risks that threaten the long-term future of humanity, with a..."},{"_id":"qrCjfikBNuEuMywYS","core":false,"name":"Anthropic","slug":"anthropic","tagRel":{"_id":"Xfe5zwYSHTFgtYCRS","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":135,"description":"
Anthropic is an AI safety and research company. It was founded in May 2021 by siblings Dario Amodei and Daniela Amodei, who serve as CEO and President, respectively...."},{"_id":"kBxmJcNsf3p6YLPd4","core":false,"name":"Global Priorities Institute","slug":"global-priorities-institute","tagRel":{"_id":"YacFvyqKDhZsKwAgo","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":135,"description":"
The Global Priorities Institute (GPI) is an interdisciplinary research centre at the University of Oxford whose aim is to conduct foundational research that informs the decision-making of individuals and institutions seeking to do as much good as possible. It is directed by..."},{"_id":"4FDyuFrgeFEtvnhqh","core":false,"name":"Centre for the Governance of AI","slug":"centre-for-the-governance-of-ai","tagRel":{"_id":"Z2Xp25ZgjxZ7GPELi","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":21,"description":"
The Centre for the Governance of AI (GovAI) is an AI governance research center.
History
GovAI was founded in 2018, as part of the Future of Humanity..."},{"_id":"Gk6vKenDrDLpwunHb","core":false,"name":"Charity evaluation","slug":"charity-evaluation","tagRel":{"_id":"aNRuXSzDkjR7L9CJm","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":138,"description":"
Charity evaluation (or charity assessment) is the investigation of charities to determine whether they should receive funding. It often includes a mixture of quantitative cost-effectiveness calculations and other considerations, such as the..."},{"_id":"CS7sWGfzkf24wR9fs","core":false,"name":"Lightcone Infrastructure","slug":"lightcone-infrastructure","tagRel":{"_id":"cFFxoazLpbw8JJAX4","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":7,"description":"
Lightcone Infrastructure is an organization that builds community infrastructure projects expected to help safeguard humanity’s long-term future.
Lightcone Infrastructure built the version of L..."},{"_id":"gCzFfErskfQzD6b95","core":false,"name":"Rethink Priorities","slug":"rethink-priorities","tagRel":{"_id":"dJFnLxoorfyiQGtme","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":450,"description":"
Rethink Priorities is a think tank dedicated to informing decisions made by high-impact organisations and funders. It works across various cause areas such as longtermism (including forecasting,..."},{"_id":"EJb2KZYkRs8rtNG7f","core":false,"name":"Center on Long-Term Risk","slug":"center-on-long-term-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"eTcufetJMLYT3inwR","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":74,"description":"
The Center on Long-Term Risk (CLR) is a research institute that aims to mitigate s-risks from advanced AI. Its research agenda focuses on encouraging cooperative behavior in and..."},{"_id":"RwosYxj7wR88fpazt","core":false,"name":"Alignment Research Center","slug":"alignment-research-center","tagRel":{"_id":"g4t6DYAopB8DGsexX","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":10,"description":"
The Alignment Research Center (ARC) is a non-profit research organization focused on AI alignment. It was founded in 2021 by Paul Christiano...."},{"_id":"QJNdDqiK6MbXWiqbL","core":false,"name":"Centre for Long-Term Resilience","slug":"centre-for-long-term-resilience","tagRel":{"_id":"gsAcrFBjqxxeh4EG4","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":6,"description":"
The Centre for Long-Term Resilience (CLTR) is an independent think tank with a mission to transform global resilience to extreme risks. It works with governments and other institutions to improve relevant governance, processes, and decision-making.
CLTR focuses on two areas of risk where effective governan..."},{"_id":"2x445EbpkWeSHqv4Y","core":false,"name":"80,000 Hours","slug":"80-000-hours","tagRel":{"_id":"gy7qeNc9mbdyQag9e","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":304,"description":"
80,000 Hours is a nonprofit organization that helps individuals select high-impact careers. It conducts research on pressing social problems and provides one-on-one advice on the basis of this research.
History
80,000 Hours was founded in July 2011..."},{"_id":"TDtyo2vBPmvzXW7xG","core":false,"name":"Center for Human-Compatible Artificial Intelligence","slug":"center-for-human-compatible-artificial-intelligence","tagRel":{"_id":"h8hZCvdzRGrDqS9vK","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":20,"description":"
The Center for Human-Compatible Artificial Intelligence (CHAI) is an AI alignment research center at the University of California, Berkeley. Its mission is \"to develop the conceptual and technical wherewithal to reorient the general thrust of AI..."},{"_id":"34whaWCHQD5ydpxgu","core":false,"name":"Centre for the Study of Existential Risk","slug":"centre-for-the-study-of-existential-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"hzFiKkrcaCFXDKE2p","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":27,"description":"
The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) is a research center at the University of Cambridge dedicated to the study and mitigation of existential risks.
History
CSER was founded in 2012 by Huw Price,..."},{"_id":"v4gzbpLGCKaRABXPr","core":false,"name":"OpenAI","slug":"openai","tagRel":{"_id":"nHZcmobyPbTgqXf7B","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":177,"description":"
OpenAI is an AI safety research and deployment company based in San Francisco.
Funding
In March 2017 OpenAI received a grant of $30 million from Open Philanthropy...."},{"_id":"NdpMrADKqWj8AQaEk","core":false,"name":"AI Safety Camp","slug":"ai-safety-camp","tagRel":{"_id":"qgCXSnppRumgmeq3h","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":41,"description":"
AI Safety Camp (AISC) is a non-profit initiative that runs programs serving students and early-career researchers who want to work on reducing existential risk from AI.
Funding
As of July 2022, AISC has received $290,000 i..."},{"_id":"CZHt3YMoy4mcTS6xa","core":false,"name":"Nonlinear","slug":"nonlinear","tagRel":{"_id":"sAvJ8me6eCvwXNh3j","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":21,"description":"
Nonlinear is an organization that aims to research, fund, and seed AI safety interventions.
Funding
As of December 2023, Nonlinear has received nearly $600,000 in funding from the..."},{"_id":"A2ZzqESan6kFret2k","core":false,"name":"Berkeley Existential Risk Initiative","slug":"berkeley-existential-risk-initiative","tagRel":{"_id":"su8ZPnWdTYnSSH3HC","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":22,"description":"
The Berkeley Existential Risk Initiative (BERI) is a US-based public charity that collaborates with university research groups working to reduce existential risk, by providing them with free services and support.
History
BERI was founded in 2017 by Andrew Critch..."},{"_id":"xNQKPkAeSbDD85pbJ","core":false,"name":"Machine Intelligence Research Institute","slug":"machine-intelligence-research-institute","tagRel":{"_id":"tftePxEPFWQ4rB3eM","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":39,"description":"
The Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute. Its mission is \"to develop formal tools for the clean design and analysis of general-purpose AI systems, with the intent of making such systems safer and more reliable when they are developed.\"..."},{"_id":"CDEKHTGHAqLcJPw5A","core":false,"name":"Impact assessment","slug":"impact-assessment","tagRel":{"_id":"vAteHAQtQ6xmi3v6A","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":260,"description":"
Impact assessment is a structured process for evaluating the impact of an intervention. Impact assessments can focus on an intervention's expected impact (ex-ante or prospective impact assessment) or on its actual impact (ex-post or retrospective impact assessment)...."},{"_id":"psBzwdY8ipfCeExJ7","core":true,"name":"Cause prioritization","slug":"cause-prioritization","tagRel":{"_id":"PJb9JsZA3qN3gvA7t","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":4101,"description":"
Cause prioritization refers to efforts to find the most pressing problems to work on and compare interventions across different cause areas so that we can do as much good as possible with the resources available to us.
Governments and philanthropists spend considerable resources attempting to do good in the world...."},{"_id":"L6NqHZkLc4xZ7YtDr","core":true,"name":"Effective giving","slug":"effective-giving","tagRel":{"_id":"RTQqwWL3mG2rjeuzv","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2413,"description":"
Effective giving is the branch of effective altruism focused on charitable donations.
The main purpose of effective giving is to support a charity or project that can achieve an..."}]},{"_id":"vtzrZuigkT3ovn4rq","slug":"how-will-we-know-if-we-are-doing-good-better-the-case-for","title":"How will we know if we are doing good better: The case for more and better monitoring and evaluation ","url":null,"baseScore":168,"voteCount":73,"commentCount":16,"postedAt":"2023-02-08T16:31:14.442Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2023-02-08T16:48:54.044Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/v1675873875/mirroredImages/vtzrZuigkT3ovn4rq/rfkhkg3zzziqem4s3r4e.png","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2023-02-17T14:56:40.463Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"MNw9qu4LwtWnigcMR","slug":"tom-billington","displayName":"Tom Billington","username":"TomBill","createdAt":"2018-05-16T23:05:41.252Z","profileImageId":"Profile/t9vhjt4drjfemapcpvl4","karma":1223,"jobTitle":"Co-founder","organization":"The Centre for Animal Life and Farming","postCount":9,"commentCount":28,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"
I am a charity founder and M&E professional focused on farmed animal welfare, especially within Low- and Middle-Income Countries.
"},"contents":{"wordCount":2847,"htmlHighlight":"
Written by Sophie Gulliver and Thomas Billington
TL;DR - EAs want to do the most good with the resources we have. But how do we know if we are actually doing the most good? How do we know if our projects are running efficiently and effectively? How do we know we are achieving impact? How do we check we are not causing harm? Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) theories and tools can help EA organisations answer these questions—but..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"Ar57gaex8Cm2sksbF","slug":"sophie-gulliver","karma":243,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"sophie-gulliver","createdAt":"2022-08-11T16:18:18.54+00:00","postCount":1,"displayName":"sophie-gulliver","commentCount":6,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":null,"profileImageId":null}],"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"CDEKHTGHAqLcJPw5A","core":false,"name":"Impact assessment","slug":"impact-assessment","tagRel":{"_id":"CKBzGSDghr6QEYHWD","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":260,"description":"
Impact assessment is a structured process for evaluating the impact of an intervention. Impact assessments can focus on an intervention's expected impact (ex-ante or prospective impact assessment) or on its actual impact (ex-post or retrospective impact assessment)...."},{"_id":"EHLmbEmJ2Qd5WfwTb","core":true,"name":"Building effective altruism","slug":"building-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"uek7gTfFLnD7Yujcm","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":7853,"description":"
Building effective altruism refers to the family of interventions aimed at growing, shaping, or otherwise improving effective altruism as a practical and intellectual community.
Examples of building effective altruism include starting..."},{"_id":"L6NqHZkLc4xZ7YtDr","core":true,"name":"Effective giving","slug":"effective-giving","tagRel":{"_id":"9sELikktwCRENyxcb","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2413,"description":"
Effective giving is the branch of effective altruism focused on charitable donations.
The main purpose of effective giving is to support a charity or project that can achieve an..."},{"_id":"Gk6vKenDrDLpwunHb","core":false,"name":"Charity evaluation","slug":"charity-evaluation","tagRel":{"_id":"fh8Y7Fv6vxPbZweWL","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":138,"description":"
Charity evaluation (or charity assessment) is the investigation of charities to determine whether they should receive funding. It often includes a mixture of quantitative cost-effectiveness calculations and other considerations, such as the..."},{"_id":"5gN3evxkrEJqSTbGS","core":false,"name":"Theory of change","slug":"theory-of-change","tagRel":{"_id":"9qJ3DF4sLjRrc9L3w","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":70,"description":"
A theory of change explicitly articulates the cause-and-effect steps for how a project or organization can turn inputs into a desired impact on the world (i.e. it’s their theory of how they’ll make a change). They generally include the following sections:
Inputs / activities: What the project or organization does to create change (e.g..."},{"_id":"psBzwdY8ipfCeExJ7","core":true,"name":"Cause prioritization","slug":"cause-prioritization","tagRel":{"_id":"AYtHRW5guw3yJiDSf","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":4101,"description":"
Cause prioritization refers to efforts to find the most pressing problems to work on and compare interventions across different cause areas so that we can do as much good as possible with the resources available to us.
Governments and philanthropists spend considerable resources attempting to do good in the world...."}]},{"_id":"YKEPXLQhYjm3nP7Td","slug":"ways-money-can-make-things-worse","title":"Ways money can make things worse","url":null,"baseScore":167,"voteCount":81,"commentCount":3,"postedAt":"2022-06-21T15:26:52.855Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2022-06-21T21:49:35.696Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2022-06-23T17:01:17.764Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"G2BPn6M22ciugvGWm","slug":"jan_kulveit","displayName":"Jan_Kulveit","username":"Jan_Kulveit","createdAt":"2017-12-25T12:28:21.072Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":5018,"jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":34,"commentCount":228,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"
Studying behaviour and interactions of boundedly rational agents, AI alignment and complex systems.
\n
Research fellow at Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford.\nOther projects:\nEuropean Summer Program on Rationality.\nHuman-aligned AI Summer School.\nEpistea Lab.
\n"},"contents":{"wordCount":2637,"htmlHighlight":"
This text is trying to describe the most significant ways in which an influx of money can have adverse effects, and make a few specific suggestions on how to mitigate these effects. You may be interested in it if you are in a position where your decisions about money change the incentive landscape in some significant way.

It is mostly not concerned about optics and PR, which seems to be getting a lot of attention already. While I started drafting this text before several r..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"aEfhhqymeFsdhDQLk","core":false,"name":"Criticism and Red Teaming Contest","slug":"criticism-and-red-teaming-contest","tagRel":{"_id":"6FhbmtMtfLfyiWfw8","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":283,"description":"
The Criticism and Red Teaming Contest is a contest on the Effective Altruism Forum for writing that critically engages with theory or work from the effective altruism community..."},{"_id":"nGqPZkKJuiKfAqDcs","core":false,"name":"Effective altruism funding","slug":"effective-altruism-funding","tagRel":{"_id":"BDdL9oaqDkb3A4Crf","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":458,"description":"
Posts with the effective altruism funding tag discuss EA funding networks, the availability of funds for different cause areas, grantmaking strategy, etc.
\n
Not meant for posts that discuss specific funding decisions (for that, use the \"Donation Writeup\"..."},{"_id":"CDEKHTGHAqLcJPw5A","core":false,"name":"Impact assessment","slug":"impact-assessment","tagRel":{"_id":"F83qdXYqrjnmYAf9w","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":260,"description":"
Impact assessment is a structured process for evaluating the impact of an intervention. Impact assessments can focus on an intervention's expected impact (ex-ante or prospective impact assessment) or on its actual impact (ex-post or retrospective impact assessment)...."},{"_id":"wWPDwxR4ZhjWwno4w","core":false,"name":"Grantmaking","slug":"grantmaking","tagRel":{"_id":"PmKuqmKzKutpnSvrp","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":259,"description":"
Grantmaking is the process by which a government or an organization gives non-repayable funds or products for a particular purpose or project.
Grantmaking focused on top cause areas is one of 80,000 hours \"priority paths\"—the most promising career opportuni..."},{"_id":"psBzwdY8ipfCeExJ7","core":true,"name":"Cause prioritization","slug":"cause-prioritization","tagRel":{"_id":"m4RrXE6hAzdnio6Yj","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":4101,"description":"
Cause prioritization refers to efforts to find the most pressing problems to work on and compare interventions across different cause areas so that we can do as much good as possible with the resources available to us.
Governments and philanthropists spend considerable resources attempting to do good in the world...."},{"_id":"aFJtBqxDkRX4Dj3m4","core":false,"name":"Community epistemic health","slug":"community-epistemic-health","tagRel":{"_id":"GtnBCdRbnfaHTNZee","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":206,"description":"
The community epistemic health tag applies to posts addressing the current state of epistemic health in the effective altruism community, as well as posts discussing how we might improve the epistemic health of the community.
Effective altruism is about working out how to do as much good as we can using evidence and reason..."},{"_id":"EHLmbEmJ2Qd5WfwTb","core":true,"name":"Building effective altruism","slug":"building-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"cTsXtdbu3mzSBBrkh","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":7853,"description":"
Building effective altruism refers to the family of interventions aimed at growing, shaping, or otherwise improving effective altruism as a practical and intellectual community.
Examples of building effective altruism include starting..."}]},{"_id":"XHZJ9i7QBtAJZ6byW","slug":"shapley-values-better-than-counterfactuals","title":"Shapley values: Better than counterfactuals","url":null,"baseScore":164,"voteCount":84,"commentCount":64,"postedAt":"2019-10-10T10:26:24.220Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2019-10-10T11:22:23.786Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/6fe739cf2e00ee18336b028ada7971d124e63f2b","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2026-04-16T15:41:56.614Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"YRCdk7cvPT6pyiph9","slug":"nunosempere","displayName":"NunoSempere","username":"NunoSempere","createdAt":"2018-11-15T15:52:18.347Z","profileImageId":"Profile/k878ddoduabhtngbawob","karma":13987,"jobTitle":"Director, Head of Foresight","organization":"Sentinel","postCount":107,"commentCount":1294,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"$7f"},"contents":{"wordCount":4398,"htmlHighlight":"
[Epistemic status: Pretty confident. But also, enthusiasm on the verge of partisanship]
\n
One intuitive function which assigns impact to agents is the counterfactual, which has the form:
\n
\n
CounterfactualImpact(Agent) = Value(World) - Value(World/Agent)
\n
\n
which reads \"The impact of an agent is the difference between the value of the world with the agent and the value of the world without the agent\".
\n
It has been discussed in the effective altruis..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"o2FZJuxRGHKvXM6HS","core":false,"name":"Statistics","slug":"statistics","tagRel":{"_id":"4pFechLPsCMkMdcaq","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":86,"description":"
Statistics is the discipline that concerns the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data.
This tag isn't meant for posts that estimate the impact of specific charities or interventions, but instead for posts about \"doing statistics\" in general.
Related entries
..."},{"_id":"CDEKHTGHAqLcJPw5A","core":false,"name":"Impact assessment","slug":"impact-assessment","tagRel":{"_id":"SGXJ2TgMNuCtaEs8B","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":260,"description":"
Impact assessment is a structured process for evaluating the impact of an intervention. Impact assessments can focus on an intervention's expected impact (ex-ante or prospective impact assessment) or on its actual impact (ex-post or retrospective impact assessment)...."},{"_id":"X3KB4vCDhbRrC4qTP","core":false,"name":"Forum Prize","slug":"forum-prize","tagRel":{"_id":"wW6s4kA2QoysxMhvK","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":136,"description":"
The Forum Prize tag is used for posts that won the EA Forum Prize, as well as posts that announce the winning posts and comments.
For posts awarding an independent prize, use the Prize tag.
What is the Forum P..."},{"_id":"rdxSaRhkHxwjbNkD7","core":false,"name":"Cost-effectiveness analysis","slug":"cost-effectiveness-analysis","tagRel":{"_id":"wuzpDrNqDiXhfRXzH","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":498,"description":"
Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is a kind of economic analysis that allows comparison of the relative costs and effects of rival interventions. Unlike cost-benefit analysis, CEA does not express these effects in monetary values.
..."},{"_id":"GQiD9puGQ5fWYLWS8","core":false,"name":"Practical","slug":"practical","tagRel":{"_id":"rvSk3QtEZcvfYP4uS","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":283,"description":"
Practical collects posts that offer practical advice, tips, recommendations, or are otherwise meant to be practically useful.
Related entries
college advice | personal developm..."},{"_id":"6r3o6pPi4kw2Mo6r8","core":false,"name":"Tools for collaborative truth-seeking","slug":"tools-for-collaborative-truth-seeking","tagRel":{"_id":"7mnimXH7qN22osoqH","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":79,"description":"
Tool Summaries
Stating Beliefs
Manifold markets: a play money prediction market with user-created questions. The play money can be redeemed as a charitable donation. Main wiki page.
..."},{"_id":"G2LQtuW6qoBrsfKEv","core":false,"name":"Counterfactual reasoning","slug":"counterfactual-reasoning","tagRel":{"_id":"GWaJBDDG3mmoeSK3Y","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":37,"description":"
Counterfactual reasoning involves scenarios that will occur if an agent chooses a certain action, or that would have occurred if an agent had chosen an action they did not. For instance, we can consider a counterfactual scenario in which the effective altruism community was called ‘effective giving’ rather than effective al..."},{"_id":"psBzwdY8ipfCeExJ7","core":true,"name":"Cause prioritization","slug":"cause-prioritization","tagRel":{"_id":"2hFmdKE2u59YSogh2","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":4101,"description":"
Cause prioritization refers to efforts to find the most pressing problems to work on and compare interventions across different cause areas so that we can do as much good as possible with the resources available to us.
Governments and philanthropists spend considerable resources attempting to do good in the world...."},{"_id":"u7oh72Xj9yzyjagYx","core":false,"name":"Shapley values","slug":"shapley-values","tagRel":{"_id":"HCFCxxRDJ64xW2AjJ","voteType":null,"baseScore":7},"postCount":8,"description":"
In the context of EA, Shapley values are a method for assigning credit for the impact of an intervention to each of a set of actors collaborating to make it happen. The concept of a Shapley value comes from cooperative game theory, where it is a general solution to the pr..."}]}],"initialLimit":15,"loadMoreLimit":50}]]}]}]