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Long-range forecasting

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2MichaelA🔸
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Parent Topic: Forecasting
You are viewing revision 1.9.0, last edited by Pablo

Posts tagged Long-range forecasting

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125
Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience
Charles Dillon 🔸
· · 27m read
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The Epistemic Challenge to Longtermism (Tarsney, 2020)
MichaelA🔸
· · 2m read
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[Link] "How feasible is long-range forecasting?" (Open Phil)
Milan_Griffes
· · 1m read
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Christian Tarsney: Can we predictably improve the far future?
EA Global
· · 1m read
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Christian Tarsney on future bias and a possible solution to moral fanaticism
Pablo
· · 1m read
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Superforecasting in a nutshell
lukeprog
· · 3m read
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What important questions are missing from Metaculus?
Q
Charles Dillon 🔸
· · 1m read
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204
Scoring forecasts from the 2016 “Expert Survey on Progress in AI”
PatrickL
· · 10m read
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A personal take on longtermist AI governance
lukeprog
· · 8m read
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154
Survey on AI existential risk scenarios
Sam Clarke
· · 8m read
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140
A practical guide to long-term planning – and suggestions for longtermism
weeatquince
· · 29m read
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Formalising the "Washing Out Hypothesis"
dwebb
· · 15m read
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[Linkpost] Dan Luu: Futurist prediction methods and accuracy
Linch
· · 5m read
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Predicting Open Phil Grants
Charles Dillon 🔸
· · 2m read
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Overview of Rethink Priorities’ work on risks from nuclear weapons
MichaelA🔸
· · 4m read
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