My short Claude prompt was only intended as a conversation starter, so I'm happy this worked. I'm not considering investing, but if potential investors would like to carry this on and share here, this might be useful.

I agree and would encourage potential investors to take into consideration base rates of startups reaching €1M+ on profits yearly when comparing this to other forms of investments. I spent 5 min prompting Claude to come up with a BOTEC based on this post, which I haven't checked but could be an entry point to additional research.

The board members of EA Germany are elected by the members (over 100) of the organization. The board is responsible for hiring the director.

What you write aligns with the challenges we see from our advisees, and based on your profile, you may be a good fit for our career advising program if you are open to working on AI Risk reduction.

For people we have helped in our program, we typically see transition timelines of 6-18 months, but just today I talked with someone for whom it took two years. My colleague Moneer wrote about his experiences in getting into a position, which included taking 170 actions (like applications, 1-1s, projects). This can seem like a lot, but it comes down to 3 per week on average over a year.

You don't have to have an academic background to succeed (I never went to university myself), but regardless of your qualifications, be prepared for it to take time to find a position. In our advising, we emphasize the importance of building networks, conducting informational interviews, and getting more information on how to position oneself as a promising candidate.

That being said, you might be able to have a higher counterfactual impact if you find a position that is not in one of the well-known orgs - I would keep that in mind.

Talent pipelines. There’s no fellowship to train people to go directly into advocacy for AIS, compared to over 10 such efforts aimed at research. We’re training AIS researchers by the 100s, and leaving advocates to figure it out for themselves.

I'm not sure if this is different from what you meant, but we ran the first iteration of our AI Safety Advocacy Fellowship this year with promising results.

It seems 1- 1s are done remotely, which means this could also be done by an international organization. I assume this would allow it to be more cost-effective as you would only need one organization, director, CRM, and training for several people who could do 1-1s for several regions.

Thank you for asking this question! I have the feeling that for some national groups, we might be upholding them based on path dependence, not because they have intentionally selected the right target group. I wrote a recent comment about this, based on my experience at EA Germany.

I'm most excited about national organisations that can reach specific, narrow target groups, as many of the scalable programs would seem more efficient to do on a larger scale.

That being said, a larger organization operating at the continental or international level could still hire contractors to experiment with smaller interventions. This would mean having only one organization with one director, potentially increasing cost-effectiveness while allowing for experimentation with different target groups and markets.

A director of EA Europe could hire a team to organize a conference in the North of the UK, for example, while having an Italian-speaking contractor doing 1- 1s for Italy and organizing group calls for European CBs. As a UK CB, you take away these possibilities as you artificially narrow the focus without much reason.

I would be excited for EA UK to think more broadly in scope, connect with other European national groups, and expand the parameters within which the director would be allowed to operate.

So exciting to see that you are doing the first EAGx in South America (if I’m not mistaken)!

I am sorry that you have to deel with kind of frustration. At Successif we have done double blind work tests for the first round of the hiring interviews for advisor applications and had good results.

On the other hand we recently hired for an operation associate and didn’t do this. I’ve become less excited about written work tests given LLM capabilities and I think work tests can cover only parts of what I’m looking for. I’d rather have people describe what they did before in their application so I can talk with them about the details in the interview.

In this case we hired someone with several years of experience doing the kinds of things we were looking for in a another organization without having been involved in EA. I don’t know how representative that is, but I do nudge organizations to hire for experience before alignment when asked.

I can’t comment on your situation as there is not enough information but if people ask me about operations roles I typically recommend to upskill outside the impact space in organizations which can provide mentorship and good operational procedures - something which is sadly sometimes missing in our space. 
In terms of counterfactuals I would suspect that we are sometimes seeing negative values by only hiring within the community and often very small ones for many of the competitive operation positions. For our recent hiring round we received 70 applications in four days before closing the applications. We had many brilliant and purpose driven people apply who were affected by USAID cuts.

So what could you do in addition to upskilling? Volunteer roles can be a great way to get into roles which will never be publicly announced. Similarly networking, doing small scale side projects, being around people in organizations and helping them (for example helping the local or national community) can help to stand out.

Sometimes it can also be the most impactful thing to have a solid career, donate a be the person to help others in the community. Imagine a strong hub of people in Rome* doing impactful work together because you were there to consistently support them and fill the gaps in the local space. This could be awesome.

*I don’t know anything about EA in Rome so only speculating 

I can see democratic models providing value, but the practical implementation is tricky. I can only speak from my experience in EA Germany, where member engagement in national-level strategy and participation in the national community seemed much lower than what I experience on the international level (in this forum, for example) or even at the city level at times.

I would be more excited about either local structures (cities or small regions with fewer than 10 million people) or larger structures (sub-continents, professional groups, etc.) where people truly form a community in the sense that they see each other in person, or where there is a large enough body to allow for meaningful participation in democratic processes.