BLUF:
* To determine whether AI is ‘improving exponentially’, ‘hitting the wall’, or any other claim which involves a quantity or magnitude (e.g. ‘This model was a big leap/small increment’). We need a good y-axis: an interval scale of AI capability which means +1 unit always represents the same degree of ‘how much better’, in the same way +1 degree Celsius is always the same amount of ‘how much hotter’.
* Yet there is no good y-axis for AI capability. All our...
Public service announcement
1. Applications are now open for our first ever round of the Charity Entrepreneurship Incubation Program dedicated exclusively to animal welfare. Learn more about what’s different this round here and apply...
Summary
* The animal welfare movement has already seen an influx in funding and should prepare for the possibility of more.
* The EA Animal Welfare Fund is encouraging those working in animal advocacy to actively set aside time and resources now to concretely plan for scaling sustainably, and we’ll support you in doing that.
* We’re requesting advocates set concrete ambitious goals and submit plans t...
Hot take: When Anthropic IPO money starts flowing into AI safety, the ecosystem should consider operating more outside charitable structures. Charities get an indirect public subsidy via tax-deductible donations, but the trade-off is greater compliance burden and cost, restrictions on spending, and a greater reliance on public goodwill. As the world gets weirder from AI-driven job losses and political shifts, taxpayers may be less happy to see their foregone tax dollars going to China dialogues or high salaries for technical AI safety researchers. (Not legal or financial advice.)
Agreed, part of the thesis of https://surplus.dev!