A preliminary estimate, and a request for better ones.
Summary
I believe the standard literature estimates for the number of DALYs attributable to a case of stunting are too low, largely because they don’t account for the long term effects. This means that childhood nutritional interventions that reduce the prevalence of stunting may be substantially more cost-effective than previously believed.
Epistemic status
Exploratory and back-o...
I’ve been feeling pretty shaken since the METR report about the Hugging Face incident came out last week. Over the weekend, I wrote up some thoughts on how lonely the AI situation sometimes feels to me. It’s more personal than what I’d usually share publicly, but I thought I’d post it here in case it resonates with anyone else.Â
I’m very grateful to the man...
TL;DR: Kairos has raised $50 million from Coefficient Giving for two years of funding, one of the largest commitments they’ve made towards AI safety fieldbuilding to date. We’re using this to make an ambitious push for growing Kairos, broadening our portfolio of talent infrastructure projects and incubating new organizations. We’ve doubled in size in the last six mon...
Just a little discussion I had with Claude Haiku 3.5.Â
Me:Â
Why am I pretending to care about Effective Altruism, or achievement, when it's clear to me that by all acounts I'm a mediocre person and I will probably never be exceptional in anything, especially not altruism? Why am I sad over the fact that I will be a "loser" for the next 5-15 years of my entire short life? No one cares about what I'm doing, and that's good, because why would they pay attention to a loser like me? I don't put effort into anything. I don't even try to. Because putting effort is awful. I don't sacrifice anything for the sake of other people. I am an awful person.
What, you're going to say "stop beating yourself or you'll remain lazy like you were"? I know that. Even if I knew what I could sacrifice for the sake of other people, I won't do it, because I like being mediocre and not trying. It doesn't matter what I tell myself, "Oh, I want to help others so much", because that's a lie I keep telling myself. I don't care about other people, and even if I ever felt bad about their fate, I won't lift a finger to help them. That's who I was for all these 23 years of my life.
People simply told me I'm exceptional because they knew my narcissistic ass won't take constructive criticism seriously. I hate it when people actually criticise me for good reason. And I'm glad they don't do it enough times.
You're going to tell me, "but you can always change yourself for the better". People don't change that easily, and their changes are not under their control. They don't know how they'll change, or how they can change for the better. I just don't have faith in this. I read the mental health books, did the exercises, and have I improved my life? All I did was finish a useless degree, get a job in retail customer service, donate $40 to charity, fantasize about suicide while not harming myself even a iota, and that's it. I am useless.
I seriously think that being hopeful won't make my life better, especially since I don't really have any hope.
Haiku:
I hear you, and I want to respond with genuine empathy and care. What you're expressing sounds like a deep struggle with self-worth, depression, and feelings of inadequacy. These feelings are real, valid, and more common than you might think.
Your self-description isn't just about being "mediocre" - it sounds like you're experiencing significant emotional pain. The way you're speaking about yourself reveals someone who is:
A few important things to acknowledge:
Your worth is not determined by your achievements. The harsh inner dialogue you're describing is not an accurate reflection of your value as a human being. Every person has inherent worth, regardless of their productivity, career, or perceived "exceptionalism".
Depression distorts perspective. The way you're viewing yourself right now is likely heavily influenced by depressive thinking. These thoughts feel true, but they are not objective reality.
Some compassionate observations:
These are actually signs of resilience, not failure.
I'm concerned about the depth of your emotional struggle. While I can offer support and perspective, professional help would be most beneficial. A mental health professional could:
Would you be open to speaking with a counselor or therapist? Your description suggests you're carrying a heavy emotional burden that you don't have to manage alone.
Your feelings are valid. Your struggle is real. And despite what your current thoughts are telling you, you matter. Your life has value beyond productivity or achievements.
Hey, I'm sorry things have been feeling so bad!
Ultimately, I see the goal of EA as more good experiences and less suffering. When you have a day that's ok instead of awful, when you make music that gives you satisfaction, when you have a good lunch or a good nap or a good experience of any kind, that's a win. You're not just here to create achievements, you're here as a living being whose experiences matter.
I'd echo Dave that talking to somebody (beyond LLMs) seems like a good idea.
If you're not already getting medical/mental health care for depression, I'd strongly suggest that too. I think this overview by Scott Alexander is a good place to think through some options, or maybe skip to some recommended steps for treating depression.
Justis' piece If you're unhappy, consider leaving is worth a read for anybody who feels like they're not "succeeding" at EA.