Comments
In case helpful, I've been vibe coding a calculator and model og this potential influx here, with input from @MichaelDickens and others
Written in a personal capacity.
I recently came back to SF after finishing my first year of grad school. I already had a sense that new money was coming into EA causes. But being back in the Bay Area has made me feel like this funding increase could be truly flabbergasting. Shamelessly plagiarizing Joe Carlsmith’s great blog post, I think that our actions should reflect a strong likelihood of an upcoming step-change in funding for EA causes.
Here is a (stitched together) tl;dr of Joe’s post:
To be clear, I am not confident that the amount of money directed to EA causes will increase this steeply. A huge amount depends on the decisions and wealth fluctuation of a few key donors. However, at this point, I'd be more surprised if the amount of money directed to EA causes in 2028 were <2x the 2025 level than if it were >8x.[1]
So what changes might this lead to in practice?
For meta work
- I think work focused on growing effective giving among small-scale retail donors (like me!) will become directionally less valuable. This is both because the marginal dollar becomes less cost-effective the more money there is, and because the opportunity cost of time spent fundraising will increase.
- I think growing the number of people working on EA areas will become more valuable, because organizations need to hire quickly to use funding well. I think bringing in experienced professionals will be especially valuable, since there may be a need for people managers or specialized skillsets to hit the ground running. It may be worth taking steps to develop these skills yourself (e.g, asking about managing others at your org).
For career choice
- If there is a dream job in direct work that might tempt you to leave your current path, I think it’s worth exploring whether this has become more realistic. E.g., if you are a first-year PhD student but you would leave your program to work as a grantmaker or to start a new well-funded organization, these types of opportunities may be much more available now than they were a year ago.
You could attend conferences [2] or virtual programs to learn about opportunities. You could also consider a leave of absence from your job or school to test your fit with a new type of work. - There may be a number of job openings related to supporting new donors’ giving. This could look like positions at organizations receiving donations (e.g., EA Funds, Longview, GiveWell, Coefficient Giving, grantees of these orgs), or responding to demand for new philanthropic infrastructure (e.g., new DAF options, or fact-finders who offer bespoke advice or services to new large-dollar donors).
For organizations already receiving EA funding
- In the coming months, funders may ask you for ideas on how to expand.[3] It could be valuable to think proactively about this possibility, and consider using some flexible funds to run small experiments and test new ideas.
Here’s what I’m changing in response to predicted increases in EA funding:
- I’m working more, and finding ways to make this sustainable.[4]
- I’m sharing job opportunities with large channels like university alumni networks.
- I’m raising the bar for earn-to-give side projects I take on (e.g., advantage sportsbetting), since I think the opportunity cost of time spent on direct work is becoming significantly higher.
- Before starting a project, I’m thinking about whether proof of concept could lead to larger-scale impact later on.
If you haven’t read Predictable Updating About AI Risk, I think you’ll like it. I resonated with its core claim and revised my beliefs about potential risks from transformative AI. Using the same chain of reasoning, I encourage you to ask yourself: “What is my central estimate of funding growth in EA? And what does this suggest about how I can do the most good?”
- ^
This is just my view, and doesn’t reflect any official projections from EA donors or organizations.
- ^
In addition to EAG, EAGx, and EA Summit conferences, you might explore the UN General Assembly and Skoll Forum for Global Development, AVA International for Animal Welfare, and FAR Workshops for AI Alignment.
- ^
Of course, this is not guaranteed and it may be safest to check with funders directly.
- ^
I’m planning to finish my degree, but tell all of my professors that work is my top priority. I expect to take less demanding classes and get lower grades.
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Do you think animal welfare / digital minds will really see a substantial increase in funding, or just global health and AI safety? Because excepting animal-pilled EAs at Anthropic, the funding sources don’t make me bullish about increased funding for those neglected cause areas.
This matters because if one would be earning to give for AI safety, I’d see the argument for deprioritizing that, but I’m not sure earning to give for animal welfare / digital minds is suboptimal just yet.
Great point, thanks Ariel. I wouldn't say earning to give is necessarily suboptimal (for any cause), just that directionally more money will flow across and within major EA focus areas.
My best guess is that there will be an increase in funding to animal welfare, though likely not to the extent of the funding increase to AI safety. I'm less confident in the funding landscape for digital minds, but I would guess that this field will get a boost as well (e.g, because Longview may receive more donations).
Anthropic employees + founders represent tens of billions of dollars, and a decent fraction are animal pilled (at a rate a bit less than the typical EA I would guess), so I think you should expect significant increases in funding. Digital minds seem like something Anthropic employees are likely to be more into than the typical EA, though probably won't know where to give to
Glad to hear and hope you’re right!