A pandemic that's substantially worse than COVID-19 is a serious possibility. If one happens, having a good mask could save your life. A high quality reusable mask is only $30 to $60, and I think it's well worth it to buy one for yourself. Worth it enough that I think you should order one now if you don't have one already.
But if you're not convinced, let's do some rough estimation.
COVID-19 killed about 0.2% of people (20M of 8B). The 1918 flu killed more like 2.5% (50M of 2B). Estimating from two data points is fraught, but this gives you perhaps a 0.02% annual chance of dying in a pandemic. Engineering could make this much worse, especially given progress in AI, but let's set that aside for now to make a more conservative case.
A reusable mask ("elastomeric respirator") would be really valuable to have, if things got really bad. Let's imagine they cut your risk of dying by half: the rated efficacy is much higher (99%+) but real-world use isn't perfect, especially over the months or years another pandemic could last.
A mask should last at least ten years if unused, and over that decade it would drop this conservative estimate of your risk of pandemic-induced death from 0.2% to 0.1%. If you, as the US DoT does, value not dying at $14M, then this is worth $14k. Even if the benefit of a mask is 100x lower than we estimated ($140), it's still worth it to buy one.
I like geeking out over masks and there are a lot of options. I have a bunch of models, and if you'd like to come try them sometime (next EA Boston meetup on 10/26?) I'd be happy to show you what they're like. But if you just want to pick one and be done with it, leaving it in a box that you more likely than not don't need to open, a time tested but somewhat garish option is the 3M 6200 mask in Small ($17), Medium ($15), Large ($19) plus a set of 3M 2091 p100 filters ($7/pair):
I'd also recommend buying one now instead of trying to notice when a pandemic is coming: buying now ensures you get one instead of scrambling when everyone else is competing over a supply that can't keep up, and everyone who prepares ahead of time helps reduce shortages when a disaster comes.
What's the current thinking about risk of counterfeit items? The filter link currently points to a small, random third-party seller on Amazon. I recall seeing reports of some fake disposable N95s in years past, although I never could get a good sense of the prevalence.
Amazon also sells imitation ones that don't say 3M and are probably not certified: example. They're much cheaper, and could even be worth buying.
I don't have any special knowledge on whether the ones that say 3M are also not 3M, but I'd doubt it?
Without testing, I would assume the imitation filters have similar performance characteristics to the "fraudulent" [1] ones NIOSH recently tested. They did better than I would have expected, but the differences were still significant. Maybe the imitations have a use case for particularly cost-conscious users, or for those who want a stockpile for friends and neighbors.
The fraudulent models generally included NIOSH markings (e.g., P100) that were not authorized. As far as I know, they did not include fake 3M markings.
Amazon has a pretty significant problem with counterfeit merchandise. It's essentially a flea market. Personally I wouldn't buy anything there where safety is an important consideration.
Do you have an alternative that you would use?
3M lists dealers on their website, those are probably fine to buy from? Though Amazon is on the list, so perhaps 3M is not concerned about fakes on Amazon. Or maybe you just have to make sure the seller is Amazon itself.
I went through a phase of researching masks for several weeks a few years ago and I fully agree with your choice of the 3M half face respirator as a one of the best options available.
Good thoughts! We run the exact respirator you link working in attics continuously for many hours/day. Disc filters last an extremely long time. This model can also be paired with an organic vapor cartridge and particulate pre-filter.
https://www.amazon.com/3M-Performance-Facepieces-NIOSH-APPROVED-6001P3-DC/dp/B00KX1IFNK/
https://www.amazon.com/3M-Particulate-Filter-5-pairs-Filters/dp/B0013Z0TV6/
I bought the 3M mask on your recc 😃
What do we thinking about maintenance-free masks (they're like the half-face respirators but have single-use filters) - seems like better than using N95s/having nothing but worse than having swappable filters?
(The cost of mask + swappable filters seems much higher than the maintenance-free mask, maybe 2x judging by the cost on Amazon UK)
One downside is that you may end up with a suboptimal filter. The one you linked, for instance, is P2 (~N95 in US) rather than P3 (~N100 or P100) -- so less protective against particulates. It does add some protection against organic vapors ("A1") -- but I don't think that would add anything in a pandemic scenario and likely reduces breathability. 3M does make some P3-rated models in that series, but I bet the cost is higher and breathability worse (because they also incorporate ratings against other gases and/or a higher rating against organic vapors).
Well spotted, thank you!
This is probably a regional thing: I don't see the 3M 4251 or other disposable respirators for sale in the US. My guess is the cost difference you're seeing is due to comparing a US-market (6200) vs UK-market (4251) masks on UK Amazon?
Probably (even just Amazon price differences, I haven't looked elsewhere). 6200 is £18, one set of filters £11. 4251 is £20. Maybe it's a false economy, just thinking about cost savings if you wanted to buy a handful of masks for family.
Any recommendations for everyone's children? Personally I've got 2 year old's, including one who is at heightened risk for pulmonary stuff, but what are the options for anyone smaller than a size small?. I will check w/doc's too but even the 3M in size small seems like for a small adult, not a child. As I understood COVID overall was especially merciful to children, but what if we're not that lucky next time? Also let's put patient compliance aside XD - I am well aware no kid will WANT to wear one of these.
The smallest one I know of is the kids' Flo Mask.
Interesting, sounds useful.
A couple of practical questions: does it make sense to buy one and also use it to not spread random colds / flu / covid, or if I start using it the efficacy drops after a while?
And how bad is it if I sneeze inside? That gives me nightmares from when I was wearing FFP2 for covid.
If your goal is not spreading ("source control") then you should wear one that filters the output (no valve). I think the ElastoMask Pro is a good option there: manufacturer, Amazon.
Efficacy drops pretty slowly: the mask body itself shouldn't degrade, and the filters mostly degrade by being clogged with dust (which in normal environments is at least 6m). You can get extra filters cheaply.
Not an expert in this, but my understanding is it's gross but not dangerous. You could consider also having some disposable masks to wear when you're sneezy?
I would note that during the 2020 pandemic, it was not easy to get replacement filters. I recall that in April 2020 replacement filters were hard to get on less than a 2-3 month lead time.
Definitely! Storing replacement filters in addition to the masks themselves seems good.
Looks like quite a lot of load on the face upfront though!
Thanks for putting some numbers to this, its really useful. I bought a couple of 3M full face respirators (3M 6800) second-hand a couple of years ago for the same reasons you cite. I think I might also buy some 3M half-face mask for my other family members like you recommend.