Buck Shlegeris on convincing AI models they’ve already escaped (#214)
Paul Scharre on a personal experience in Afghanistan that influenced his views on autonomous weapons (#231)
Ian Dunt on how unelected septuagenarians are the heroes of UK governance (#216)
Beth Barnes on AI companies being locally reasonable, but globally reckless (#217)
Tyler Whitmer on one thing the California and Delaware attorneys general forced on the OpenAI for-profit as part of their restructure (November update)
Toby Ord on whether rich people will get access to AGI first (#219)
Andrew Snyder-Beattie on how the worst biorisks are defence dominant (#224)
Eileen Yam on the most eye-watering gaps in opinions about AI between experts and the US public (#228)
Will MacAskill on what a century of history crammed into a decade might feel like (#213)
Kyle Fish on what happens when two instances of Claude are left to interact with each other (#221)
Sam Bowman on where the Not In My Back Yard movement actually has a point (#211)
Neel Nanda on how mechanistic interpretability is trying to be the biology of AI (#222)
Tom Davidson on the potential to install secret AI loyalties at a very early stage (#215)
Luisa and Rob discussing how medicine doesn’t take the health burden of pregnancy seriously enough (November team chat)
Marius Hobbhahn on why scheming is a very natural path for AI models — and people (#229)
Holden Karnofsky on lessons for AI regulation drawn from successful farm animal welfare advocacy (#226)
Allan Dafoe on how AGI is an inescapable idea but one we have to define well (#212)
Ryan Greenblatt on the most likely ways for AI to take over (#220)
Updates Daniel Kokotajlo has made to his forecasts since writing and publishing the AI 2027 scenario (#225)
Dean Ball on why regulation invites path dependency, and that’s a major problem (#230)
It’s been another year of living through history, whether we asked for it or not. Luisa and Rob will be back in 2026 to help you make sense of whatever comes next — as Earth continues its indifferent journey through the cosmos, now accompanied by AI systems that can summarise our meetings and generate adequate birthday messages for colleagues we barely know.
Video and audio editing: Dominic Armstrong, Milo McGuire, Luke Monsour, and Simon Monsour Music: CORBIT Coordination, transcripts, and web: Katy Moore
A preliminary estimate, and a request for better ones.
Summary
I believe the standard literature estimates for the number of DALYs attributable to a case of stunting are too low, largely because they don’t account for the long term effects. This means that childhood nutritional interventions that reduce the prevalence of stunting may be substantially more cost-effective than previously believed.
Epistemic status
Exploratory and back-o...
Note: This post was crossposted from Planned Obsolescence by the Forum team, with the author's permission. The author may not see or respond to comments on this post.
Subtitle: It’s a major warning shot, and might be the last one we get
All opinions are my personal view, and don’t represent my employer or fellow investigators.
This week, METR and Redwood Research published...
TL;DR: Kairos has raised $50 million from Coefficient Giving for two years of funding, one of the largest commitments they’ve made towards AI safety fieldbuilding to date. We’re using this to make an ambitious push for growing Kairos, broadening our portfolio of talent infrastructure projects and incubating new organizations. We’ve doubled in size in the last six mon...
