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I'm a researcher at Forethought; before that, I ran the non-engineering side of the EA Forum (this platform), ran the EA Newsletter, and worked on some other content-related tasks at CEA. [More about the Forum/CEA Online job.]

Selected posts

Background

I finished my undergraduate studies with a double major in mathematics and comparative literature in 2021. I was a research fellow at Rethink Priorities in the summer of 2021 and was then hired by the Events Team at CEA. I later switched to the Online Team. In the past, I've also done some (math) research and worked at Canada/USA Mathcamp.

70:T145f,

I run Sentinel, a team that seeks to anticipate and respond to large-scale risks. You can read our weekly minutes here. I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and generally becoming more formidable. I'm also a fairly good forecaster: I started out on predicting on Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell, but now do most of my forecasting through Samotsvety, of which Scott Alexander writes:

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

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The competition is now concluded. See the announcement of winners here.
--
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Governments and philanthropists spend considerable resources attempting to do good in the world...."},{"_id":"zKmrf2yxuH3wsmDWQ","core":false,"name":"Bounty (closed)","slug":"bounty-closed","tagRel":{"_id":"XBx5fMjRmQRgmiBD2","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":41,"description":"
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..."}]},{"_id":"kyJtzRHd6hLzfxshd","slug":"announcing-the-legal-priorities-project-writing-competition","title":"Announcing the Legal Priorities Project Writing Competition: Improving Cost-Benefit Analysis to Account for Existential and Catastrophic Risks","url":null,"baseScore":104,"voteCount":43,"commentCount":8,"postedAt":"2022-06-07T09:37:38.238Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2022-06-07T10:28:29.205Z","draft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2022-09-01T17:47:57.809Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"7bFxstdCaeGnE4f6c","slug":"mackenzie-arnold-1","displayName":"Mackenzie","username":"Mackenzie Arnold","createdAt":"2022-06-07T09:04:45.947Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":195,"jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":1,"commentCount":0,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":null},"contents":{"wordCount":2819,"htmlHighlight":"
Summary
We’re announcing a writing competition to provide practical guidance to the US federal government on how to incorporate existential and catastrophic risks into agency cost-benefit analysis.
In total, we plan to distribute $72,500 in prize money for up to 10 prizes. We are offering $1,000 to anyone who successfully refers an applicant who becomes a finalist in the competition. You can find more information on..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"pmALcrKQBDgFMyqqt","core":false,"name":"Global catastrophic risk","slug":"global-catastrophic-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"3CBGvQTEkGrQHpxiD","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":300,"description":"
A global catastrophic risk (GCR) is an event that poses a risk of major harm on a global scale.^[1]
GCRs risks include, but are not restricted to,..."},{"_id":"uDAGFwZLscHKfoubc","core":false,"name":"Improving institutional decision-making","slug":"improving-institutional-decision-making","tagRel":{"_id":"3aLQskM4JXTiNj5yq","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":325,"description":"
Improving institutional decision-making is a cause that focuses on increasing the technical quality and effective altruism alignment of the most important decisions made by the world’s most important decision-making bodies...."},{"_id":"zKmrf2yxuH3wsmDWQ","core":false,"name":"Bounty (closed)","slug":"bounty-closed","tagRel":{"_id":"D6WzaJ8iZvKQKM4qx","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":41,"description":"
Use the bounty (closed) tag for posts that offered a prize, but no longer do (because the prize was claimed, expired, etc.)
..."},{"_id":"ee66CtAMYurQreWBH","core":true,"name":"Existential risk","slug":"existential-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"GwNdvQBqimtmwJwKx","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":4358,"description":"
An existential risk is a risk that threatens the destruction of the long-term potential of life.^[1] An existential risk could threaten the..."},{"_id":"psBzwdY8ipfCeExJ7","core":true,"name":"Cause prioritization","slug":"cause-prioritization","tagRel":{"_id":"LqNM5p25fBzqLY8rC","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":4084,"description":"
Cause prioritization refers to efforts to find the most pressing problems to work on and compare interventions across different cause areas so that we can do as much good as possible with the resources available to us.
Governments and philanthropists spend considerable resources attempting to do good in the world...."},{"_id":"of9xBvR3wpbp6qsZC","core":true,"name":"Policy","slug":"policy","tagRel":{"_id":"iifmGrqRpNSZuhSZY","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":3248,"description":"
The policy topic is very broad, covering any post about improving government policy (in developing and developed countries alike).
Improving policy
Governments are typically committed to the notion that their policies should be effective. This means that members of the effective altruist community can be in a good..."},{"_id":"9QRdwZ2DDGaHQmJHx","core":false,"name":"Law","slug":"law","tagRel":{"_id":"tTehmqspMXp5WDbuE","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":194,"description":"
The law tag is for posts discussing EA-related legal research questions, when pursuing a law degree makes sense for EAs, how EAs should use a law degree, and EA-related legal jobs. (That list of topics is adapted from the description of the Effective Altruism & Law Facebook group.)
Further reading
Effective Alt..."}]},{"_id":"HDoMrQFG76QtkdrZJ","slug":"impactful-forecasting-prize-for-forecast-writeups-on-curated","title":"Impactful Forecasting Prize for forecast writeups on curated Metaculus questions","url":null,"baseScore":91,"voteCount":39,"commentCount":13,"postedAt":"2022-02-04T20:06:11.797Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2022-02-05T01:20:24.200Z","draft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2022-04-01T12:25:43.538Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"pMCrqiBBop9ed8NBf","slug":"elifland","displayName":"elifland","username":"elifland","createdAt":"2018-08-26T10:25:40.485Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":2962,"jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":14,"commentCount":155,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"
You can give me anonymous feedback here. I often change my mind and don't necessarily endorse past writings.
"},"contents":{"wordCount":1117,"htmlHighlight":"
cross-posted to LessWrong
\n
TLDR
\n
We’re giving out $4,000 to the best forecast writeups submitted via this form on these Metaculus questions by March 11 to encourage more people to forecast on impactful questions and write up thei..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"hGpFiH8PkcWYKSkho","slug":"sam-glover-1","karma":292,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":"Research Analyst","username":"Sam Glover","createdAt":"2022-02-02T16:12:51.219+00:00","postCount":1,"displayName":"Sam Glover","commentCount":22,"organization":"Forecasting Research Institute","biographyHtml":"","profileImageId":"Profile/ayl89z5vvjvicrb6gn0g"},{"_id":"zqNybc7AuKEYYwWRq","slug":"misha_yagudin","karma":2236,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"Misha_Yagudin","createdAt":"2019-02-02T11:25:47.115+00:00","postCount":3,"displayName":"Misha_Yagudin","commentCount":269,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":"
arbresearch.com, samotsvety.org, quantifiedintuitions.org
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Metaculus is a reputation-based site for soliciting and aggregating predictions. It was founded in November 2015 by astrophysicist Anthony Aguirre, cosmologist Greg Laughlin and data scientist Max Wainwright...."},{"_id":"zKmrf2yxuH3wsmDWQ","core":false,"name":"Bounty (closed)","slug":"bounty-closed","tagRel":{"_id":"t98sCBxo2wogzEqji","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":41,"description":"
Use the bounty (closed) tag for posts that offered a prize, but no longer do (because the prize was claimed, expired, etc.)
..."},{"_id":"aJnrnnobcBNWRsfAw","core":true,"name":"Forecasting","slug":"forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"ZvDXgXZwDinDkqaBv","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2078,"description":"
Forecasting is an important tool for improving the future, because good forecasts and estimates can help us appropriately plan interventions and assess risks. Over the past several decades there has been significant research and investment in forecasting and estimation techniques, tools, and organizations. This continues to be a..."}]},{"_id":"p3eiBqnijXPv5pCMA","slug":"usd20k-in-prizes-ai-safety-arguments-competition","title":"[$20K In Prizes] AI Safety Arguments Competition","url":null,"baseScore":71,"voteCount":41,"commentCount":121,"postedAt":"2022-04-26T16:21:40.314Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2022-04-26T16:54:30.188Z","draft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2022-04-26T16:21:40.314Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"6vpsLfTA9XYSzdyhm","slug":"tw123","displayName":"TW123","username":"ThomasWoodside","createdAt":"2020-09-20T20:39:34.518Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":3740,"jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":27,"commentCount":177,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":""},"contents":{"wordCount":1008,"htmlHighlight":"
UPDATE -- The final winners are here.
TL;DR—We’re distributing $20k in total as prizes for submissions that make effective arguments for the importance of AI safety. The goal is to generate short-form content for outreach to policymakers, management at tech companies, and ML researchers. This competition will be follo..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"7aHDkq8ZtpdeHzzd6","slug":"oliver-z","karma":378,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"Oliver Zhang","createdAt":"2021-12-06T18:36:36.923+00:00","postCount":2,"displayName":"Oliver Z","commentCount":6,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":null,"profileImageId":null},{"_id":"cw2ouJqBY2ZYABaR4","slug":"sidney","karma":32,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"Sidney","createdAt":"2020-10-11T22:42:45.316+00:00","postCount":0,"displayName":"Sidney Hough","commentCount":0,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":null,"profileImageId":null},{"_id":"hQibagi8Zr6z2NcNL","slug":"kliu128","karma":32,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"kliu128","createdAt":"2020-10-11T23:00:23.273+00:00","postCount":0,"displayName":"Kevin Liu","commentCount":0,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":null,"profileImageId":null},{"_id":"qQxiv6F5dRX97vkPN","slug":"dan-h","karma":1245,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"Dan Hendrycks","createdAt":"2021-07-25T04:28:26.879+00:00","postCount":9,"displayName":"Dan H","commentCount":21,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":"
https://danhendrycks.com
\n","profileImageId":null}],"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"ihpwNfh2ZxR4ZHaAK","core":false,"name":"Prizes and contests","slug":"prizes-and-contests","tagRel":{"_id":"PH79FdPFMxPiJiMBg","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":169,"description":"
A prize is something of value given to reward success in a contest or to recognize outstanding achievement. Prizes have been proposed as an alternative to existing methods for incentivizing innovation, such as patents and grants.^{..."},{"_id":"zKmrf2yxuH3wsmDWQ","core":false,"name":"Bounty (closed)","slug":"bounty-closed","tagRel":{"_id":"TFRcWoStMobjwTGw5","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":41,"description":"}
Use the bounty (closed) tag for posts that offered a prize, but no longer do (because the prize was claimed, expired, etc.)
..."},{"_id":"oNiQsBHA3i837sySD","core":true,"name":"AI safety","slug":"ai-safety","tagRel":{"_id":"dtyzHZimjJitHNKjw","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":7246,"description":"
AI safety is the study of ways to reduce risks posed by artificial intelligence.
Interventions that aim to reduce these risks can be split into:
Technical alignment..."}]},{"_id":"ZrWuy2oAxa6Yh3eAw","slug":"usd1-000-squiggle-experimentation-challenge","title":"$$1,000 Squiggle Experimentation Challenge","url":null,"baseScore":61,"voteCount":21,"commentCount":5,"postedAt":"2022-08-04T14:20:33.844Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2022-08-04T17:56:24.568Z","draft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://39669.cdn.cke-cs.com/cgyAlfpLFBBiEjoXacnz/images/573a7e3a010333460f26e7f8d172923f6947294053317ed4.png","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2022-08-24T15:12:41.644Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"HfGQ6MkoBi4ZfKRpL","slug":"oagr","displayName":"Ozzie Gooen","username":"oagr","createdAt":"2014-12-23T18:05:31.450Z","profileImageId":"Profile/ncsqeva1zmxnztsur7iz","karma":12423,"jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":83,"commentCount":1179,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"
I'm currently researching forecasting and epistemics as part of the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute.
\n"},"contents":{"wordCount":575,"htmlHighlight":"
..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"YRCdk7cvPT6pyiph9","slug":"nunosempere","karma":13987,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":"Director, Head of Foresight","username":"NunoSempere","createdAt":"2018-11-15T15:52:18.347+00:00","postCount":107,"displayName":"NunoSempere","commentCount":1294,"organization":"Sentinel","biographyHtml":"$70","profileImageId":"Profile/k878ddoduabhtngbawob"}],"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"ARCicHJHsws2HMdbX","core":false,"name":"Squiggle","slug":"squiggle","tagRel":{"_id":"2Dpt5EmHzJXA7HDn8","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":36,"description":"
Squiggle is a special-purpose coding language for generating probability distributions, estimates of variables over time, and similar tasks. It was developed by the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute.
Tutorials..."},{"_id":"ihpwNfh2ZxR4ZHaAK","core":false,"name":"Prizes and contests","slug":"prizes-and-contests","tagRel":{"_id":"Lfgw5pSeG9Crte9GB","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":169,"description":"
A prize is something of value given to reward success in a contest or to recognize outstanding achievement. Prizes have been proposed as an alternative to existing methods for incentivizing innovation, such as patents and grants.^{..."},{"_id":"qnpsn9LbiD4hkbPRF","core":false,"name":"Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute","slug":"quantified-uncertainty-research-institute","tagRel":{"_id":"XdAxKmdamveu5w6DG","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":96,"description":"}
The Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI) is a nonprofit set up to study forecasting and epistemics. QURI was founded in 2019.
Funding
As of June 2022, QURI has received over $650,000 in funding from the..."},{"_id":"aJnrnnobcBNWRsfAw","core":true,"name":"Forecasting","slug":"forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"s2FRbdZPCzXtPxBTL","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2078,"description":"
Forecasting is an important tool for improving the future, because good forecasts and estimates can help us appropriately plan interventions and assess risks. Over the past several decades there has been significant research and investment in forecasting and estimation techniques, tools, and organizations. This continues to be a..."},{"_id":"zKmrf2yxuH3wsmDWQ","core":false,"name":"Bounty (closed)","slug":"bounty-closed","tagRel":{"_id":"GgGpDFPSeipnStb2u","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":41,"description":"
Use the bounty (closed) tag for posts that offered a prize, but no longer do (because the prize was claimed, expired, etc.)
..."}]},{"_id":"Daiv2Y2pd6ZTDwk7i","slug":"participate-in-the-next-generation-for-biosecurity","title":"Participate in the Next Generation for Biosecurity Competition","url":null,"baseScore":61,"voteCount":22,"commentCount":3,"postedAt":"2022-03-10T14:49:32.061Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2022-03-11T18:35:01.333Z","draft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2022-03-22T09:26:18.102Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"YLakmyyP9TXdLYNRS","slug":"jtm","displayName":"jtm","username":"jtm","createdAt":"2019-01-19T10:07:50.742Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":1097,"jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":7,"commentCount":71,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":""},"contents":{"wordCount":814,"htmlHighlight":"
This week, the 6th iteration of the Next Generation for Biosecurity Competition was announced by the Nuclear Threat Initiative, Next Generation for Global Health Security Network, the iGEM Foundation, SynBio Africa, and the Global Health Secur..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"zKmrf2yxuH3wsmDWQ","core":false,"name":"Bounty (closed)","slug":"bounty-closed","tagRel":{"_id":"Ryh2FAPmvCQzstEk2","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":41,"description":"
Use the bounty (closed) tag for posts that offered a prize, but no longer do (because the prize was claimed, expired, etc.)
..."},{"_id":"H43gvLzBCacxxamPe","core":true,"name":"Biosecurity","slug":"biosecurity","tagRel":{"_id":"HzB8tac5h6ovgv6T2","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":1587,"description":"
Biosecurity covers the procedures, practices and other measures used to manage risks from biological agents (e.g. viruses, bacteria) or their products (e.g. toxins).
Terminology
The term \"biosecurity\" has different meanings in different contexts. As a few examples:
In agriculture, biosecurity usually ref..."}]},{"_id":"vMEfQR3DTQCmWwbYR","slug":"linkpost-apply-for-an-acx-grant","title":"[Linkpost] Apply For An ACX Grant","url":null,"baseScore":59,"voteCount":21,"commentCount":7,"postedAt":"2021-11-12T09:44:36.017Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2021-11-12T15:33:59.495Z","draft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2021-11-20T23:56:36.940Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"A6pJ6yJTMGDxWxYBo","slug":"applieddivinitystudies","displayName":"AppliedDivinityStudies","username":"AppliedDivinityStudies","createdAt":"2021-03-09T01:43:50.908Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":2489,"jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":20,"commentCount":164,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"
I write https://applieddivinitystudies.com
\n"},"contents":{"wordCount":56,"htmlHighlight":"
This is a linkpost for: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/apply-for-an-acx-grant
\n
Some context: Scott Alexander writes a popular blog and wants to give away $250,000 in small grants (~$100,000 max) for EA-related projects. There's also an option to be connected with wealthier donors if your project is a particularly good fit.
\n
The link addresses overlap with EA Funds and other similar grant pro..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"wWPDwxR4ZhjWwno4w","core":false,"name":"Grantmaking","slug":"grantmaking","tagRel":{"_id":"g6Xgvw8yvcCmqegKp","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":257,"description":"
Grantmaking is the process by which a government or an organization gives non-repayable funds or products for a particular purpose or project.
Grantmaking focused on top cause areas is one of 80,000 hours \"priority paths\"—the most promising career opportuni..."},{"_id":"fCcrMpyRbozMfwYPF","core":false,"name":"Application announcements","slug":"application-announcements","tagRel":{"_id":"opLEfiCixL2FFdDFW","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":604,"description":"
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Related entries
Opportunities to take action | Job listing (open) |..."},{"_id":"zKmrf2yxuH3wsmDWQ","core":false,"name":"Bounty (closed)","slug":"bounty-closed","tagRel":{"_id":"shBxjcmJgwdSKu7hZ","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":41,"description":"
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..."},{"_id":"ns9DfYvtox2pxEFxD","core":false,"name":"Scott Alexander","slug":"scott-alexander","tagRel":{"_id":"xnZHcKNfdsDL554e2","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":34,"description":"
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Co-founded Nonlinear.org, an x-risk incubator. Also into web3, history, rapid learning, complex systems.
DM on twitter for faster response: www.twitter.com/emersonspartz
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I think bounties and requests for proposals (RFPs) are powerful and underutilized in EA. This is just a quick experiment to see if there are any interesting ideas floating around that might be bounty-able or RFP-able.

If your idea is interesting to me, I’ll shop it around to smarter people with relevant expertise, and if it gets funded, I’ll pay you $1,000.

Ideas can be either be objectively verifiable or they can be subjectively evaluated by a judge. For example, to minim..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"zKmrf2yxuH3wsmDWQ","core":false,"name":"Bounty (closed)","slug":"bounty-closed","tagRel":{"_id":"SYKevLtZoDKcj2kad","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":41,"description":"
Use the bounty (closed) tag for posts that offered a prize, but no longer do (because the prize was claimed, expired, etc.)
..."},{"_id":"YopStk3kZ3TcwCYCG","core":false,"name":"Request for proposal","slug":"request-for-proposal","tagRel":{"_id":"iFW8phAGhKKGmJjwP","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":36,"description":"
A request for proposal (RFP) is a written statement in which an organization solicits, usually through a bidding process, proposals from prospective suppliers by specifying the good or service that it intends to purchase.
RFPs have been contrasted with..."},{"_id":"CZHt3YMoy4mcTS6xa","core":false,"name":"Nonlinear","slug":"nonlinear","tagRel":{"_id":"p5CgwobfAuHkYag5E","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":21,"description":"
Nonlinear is an organization that aims to research, fund, and seed AI safety interventions.
Funding
As of December 2023, Nonlinear has received nearly $600,000 in funding from the..."}]},{"_id":"6LySvuerbwz9knkEF","slug":"usd100-bounty-for-the-best-ideas-to-red-team","title":"$$100 bounty for the best ideas to red team","url":null,"baseScore":48,"voteCount":19,"commentCount":33,"postedAt":"2022-03-18T18:54:32.901Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2022-03-19T05:48:32.373Z","draft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2022-03-27T14:40:00.420Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"9nsH4GhRkvWdxKTaG","slug":"cillian_","displayName":"Cillian_","username":"cilliancrosson@gmail.com","createdAt":"2021-01-13T10:37:35.303Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":1042,"jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":16,"commentCount":39,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":""},"contents":{"wordCount":504,"htmlHighlight":"
Training for Good recently announced Red Team Challenge, a programme that calls small teams together to \"red team\" important ideas within effective altruism. This programme provides training in “red teaming” best practices and then pairs small teams of 2-4 people together to critique a particular claim and publish the results.
We are looking for the best ideas to “red team” and want to pay $100 to our 'top' answer and $50..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"tRqH8tbgwDNpcMyGP","core":false,"name":"Red teaming","slug":"red-teaming","tagRel":{"_id":"7DgZDqC9mtJciMznq","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":88,"description":"
A red team is an independent group that challenges an organization or movement in order to improve it. Red teaming is the practice of using red teams.
History of the term
The term \"red teaming\" appears to originate in the United States military. A common exercise was to pitch an offensive \"red team..."},{"_id":"Zg2WKoocjbHsnKiFK","core":false,"name":"Training for Good","slug":"training-for-good","tagRel":{"_id":"awifFB7bMfXpjXRwm","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":14,"description":""},{"_id":"z8qFsGt5iXyZiLbjN","core":true,"name":"Opportunities to take action","slug":"opportunities-to-take-action","tagRel":{"_id":"vhECob3SmqjZvw9L4","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":2707,"description":"
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We have $13,000 of prizes you can win for our Clearer Thinking Regrants Forecasting Tournament on Manifold Markets! You can win money by:
(1) providing us with arguments or evidence that changes our minds about which of the 28 finalist projects to fund or how much to fund each project
(2) being one of the 20 most accurate forecasters at predicting which projects we end up selecting for funding in the Clearer Thinking Regrants program..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"ihpwNfh2ZxR4ZHaAK","core":false,"name":"Prizes and contests","slug":"prizes-and-contests","tagRel":{"_id":"iRfsk6G9r7g88z7yK","voteType":null,"baseScore":7},"postCount":169,"description":"
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TLDR
We are announcing a $20k bounty for publicly-understandable explainers of AI safety concepts. We are also releasing the results of the AI Safety Arguments competition.
Background
Of the technologists, ML researchers, and policymakers thinking about AI, very few are seriously thinking about AI existential safety. This results in less high-quality..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"7aHDkq8ZtpdeHzzd6","slug":"oliver-z","karma":378,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"Oliver Zhang","createdAt":"2021-12-06T18:36:36.923+00:00","postCount":2,"displayName":"Oliver Z","commentCount":6,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":null,"profileImageId":null},{"_id":"qQxiv6F5dRX97vkPN","slug":"dan-h","karma":1245,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"Dan Hendrycks","createdAt":"2021-07-25T04:28:26.879+00:00","postCount":9,"displayName":"Dan H","commentCount":21,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":"
https://danhendrycks.com
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AI safety resources and materials include syllabi and other educational content related to AI safety.
Related entries
Teaching materials | collections..."},{"_id":"zKmrf2yxuH3wsmDWQ","core":false,"name":"Bounty (closed)","slug":"bounty-closed","tagRel":{"_id":"jzLZnF7uMY985EPKb","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":41,"description":"
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Interventions that aim to reduce these risks can be split into:
Technical alignment..."}]},{"_id":"suqGrqjXGGjqNcSqS","slug":"ce-will-donate-gbp1k-if-you-refer-our-next-outreach-director","title":"CE will donate £1K if you refer our next Outreach Director","url":null,"baseScore":42,"voteCount":14,"commentCount":0,"postedAt":"2024-01-11T17:42:59.854Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2024-01-11T18:48:55.940Z","draft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":{"imageId":"SocialPreview/wkl20tlp65lmryzymbks"},"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2024-01-11T17:42:59.854Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"NBk9rCTrkuSZgurJN","slug":"ambitious-impact","displayName":"Ambitious Impact","username":"CE","createdAt":"2021-07-27T10:58:14.880Z","profileImageId":"Profile/kuuxklyihdwtzs92c6ay","karma":6352,"jobTitle":null,"organization":"Ambitious Impact (Charity Entrepreneurship)","postCount":58,"commentCount":8,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"
Ambitious Impact is a nonprofit that helps individuals find and transition to high-impact career paths through multiple cost-covered programs designed to fill crucial gaps in the philanthropic ecosystem, e.g. Charity Entrepreneurship Incubation Program.
"},"contents":{"wordCount":631,"htmlHighlight":"
TL;DR
Charity Entrepreneurship is trying for the second time to recruit a Director of Outreach. It’s a crucial and impactful role that will manage a team tasked with creating and maintaining diversified talent pipelines of participants for our programs. If you refer someone who ends up being selected and passes their probation, CE will donate £1,000 to a charity of your choice.
Th..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"rqvLxKG8vu5RnZBxt","slug":"alex-catalan-flores","karma":320,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":"Operations Management","username":"Alex Catalán Flores","createdAt":"2021-07-16T09:09:50.682+00:00","postCount":1,"displayName":"Alex Catalán Flores","commentCount":17,"organization":"","biographyHtml":"
Read more about me here: https://alexcatalanflores.com/about/
Hit me up if you wanna talk smack or play some AoE4.
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Related entries
organization updates |..."},{"_id":"EHLmbEmJ2Qd5WfwTb","core":true,"name":"Building effective altruism","slug":"building-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"sPgGyj3T9pFBLhbP7","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":7834,"description":"
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Examples of building effective altruism include starting..."},{"_id":"54Ls7K7N53kYws9ja","core":false,"name":"Job listing (open)","slug":"job-listing-open","tagRel":{"_id":"tABD6FrHhWisbrHX4","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":734,"description":"
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After a request has been completed, or if it's no longer relevant, downvote this tag and add job listing (closed). This can be done by..."},{"_id":"zKmrf2yxuH3wsmDWQ","core":false,"name":"Bounty (closed)","slug":"bounty-closed","tagRel":{"_id":"d2cEYbiZ3uKzfDcn3","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":41,"description":"
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